Jeremy Lin won't shoot 3pters and it's killing the team.

Actually, that's not exactly true.

I know when I played sports there were days when I was extremely focused and in rhythm and knew the moment I took a shot that I wasn't going to miss very often. And then there were days when my body felt out of sync, and knew that before I put a shot up.

Think of the body like a machine. Some days the machine is in tune, some days it's not. It can be fatigue, stress, accumulated injury, or even your head not being in the right place.

It's not even a confidence thing per se. It's that you can feel your arms and legs not moving correctly even though you've done the action thousands of times. Sometimes the hoop/target appears further away and smaller, other days you look at the hoop and it's as if it's 2 feet wide.

It's hard to explain, but it really feels like that. Where you can feel that not only can you aim the ball into the hoop, but you can feel how close your shot is going to be to the inside of the rim.

So, yah. If a player is feeling like their mechanics/focus is off, I'd prefer they take fewer shots. Players play differently every day, the best ones are just more consistent. And the Superstars start at such a high level that even when they're off, they're still shooting better than most.

 

Said it before, all jeremy lin lacks is confidence.

Linsanity showed his ceiling. Just needs to tough it up albeit a little more selfish wouldn;t harm the team.

 

That wasn't his ceiling. He's improved his defense, left hand and shooting since Linsanity. His ceiling is still unknown. Linsanity was a stretch of games where he wasn't in many scouting reports and he was in a PG friendly system with mostly the top ball dominant player injured. Today what he's doing is more impressive because he's scouted, his defense is stronger, and he often plays besides a pretty ball-dominant player in a less-defined PG role.

 

First, that's an assumption. Aside from experience in other sports at both the high school and college level, I played 9-ball at a semi-professional level where every shot had 100's and sometimes 1000's of dollars on the line. 9-ball is a game of true precision and accuracy, where 1/10's of an inch and subtle changes in fine motor control have dramatic impacts on outcome.

When you're that focused on precision, you can actually feel when your body is out of balance, out of sync, imprecise, or fatigued. You can also feel when your body is in tremendous sync. You can see angles you would normally have difficulty seeing, and gaps on the table that you would normally never be able to see.

This isn't something that happens "after" the shot, this is something you feel when you're lining up the shot, when you're doing your practice stroke, when you take your stance, and when you're looking at the balls and table.

There are literally days when I can look at a ball and see a spec of dust on it at 7 feet away. Then there are days when the ball looks like it's a mile away.

I've been friends with multiple former pro's, sat in and watched private money games between some of the best players in the world, and had the honor of being able to pick their brains over meals and beers.

When you put literally thousands of hours into any sport that requires motor skills, you realize your body is very much like a finely tuned machine. And as you become proficient you become very aware of it when the motor is humming or sputtering.

This isn't the same as statistical variance. Yes, there's always statistical variance in performance, but you're assuming a similar baseline of play every day you step on a floor or step up to a table, and the body just doesn't work that way.

Your mind isn't always sharp, your body isn't always at it's peak no matter how hard you try. At the top levels of the game you put in 30-40 hours per week just on drills and practice, and even day to day on the practice table your performance waxes and wanes, sometimes for just that day, sometimes for days or even weeks at a time.

If you went out drinking the night before and you were fogged with a hang over, would you have any doubt that your body would be out of sync? That your ability to focus would be impaired?

Why is it so hard to fathom that this happens to everyone on a smaller level every day? You sleep wrong, you toss and turn the night before, a muscle feels stiff, or your mind feels groggy? You eat the wrong thing, or haven't eaten right? Your mind is distracted by things going on in your life, or things are going great and you feel relaxed and clear?

The human body isn't an engine with precisely machined parts. It is an ever changing organic machine, with shifting chemistry and reliance on rest, food, and mental focus.

While statistics are good at helping us understand a baseline level of play over the long run, they're not so good at telling us what's going on with an athlete on any given day.

 

Actually, what I'm arguing against is the idea that high level athletes can feel when they're not moving right, or shooting right and should adjust accordingly.

Ie, against what you specifically said...

I know that one thing that separates the very good from the good is their ability to adjust their shot selection and decision making from their level of performance on that particular day.

The best players adjust their strategy to reflect how they're performing that day, by taking more conservative choices versus higher risk choices when they know that they're not performing reliably.

Most high level athletes do that to some degree, whether it's basketball, football, soccer or 9-ball. There are actually not a ton of high level athletes that shoot "without conscience", and those tend not to reach the highest levels of their craft.

That said, I agree that when Lin is shooting well he could be more aggressive. However, I don't subscribe to the idea that Lin shouldn't exercise judgement any more than I believe Parsons should just shoot 3's blindly when he clearly knows that his shot mechanics are off.

A 40% shooter is NOT a 40% shooter every day he steps on a court. Some days he's a 30% shooter, other days he's a 50% shooter. And the difference between being efficient and being a 'chucker' is knowing which day is which and adjusting accordingly.

 

Like this thread in general, this comment is so ill-informed that it really makes one wonder about the standards Lin is held to in some corners.

Here's a money quote from a disinterested observer with no axe to grind:

"We already talked a little about the Rockets shot selection, but it’s worth singling out Jeremy Lin. So far this season his XPPS is 1.114, sandwiched right in between the marks of Kevin Durant and LeBron James. That’s a fairly significant increase from last season, when his XPPS was 1.089. Three-point attempts are making up the highest percentage of his shot attempts since he’s been in the league and his free throws attempts have rebounded in dramatic fashion after bottoming out last season. "

http://www.hickory-high.com/?p=10351

Read the whole article, it's great. Jeremy Lin's shot selection and efficiency is splendid this year. Is it the case that Jeremy Lin must literally have the best shot selection and efficiency in the NBA before he's immune to screeching criticism?