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Updated 5 year outlook

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Snake Diggit, Aug 2, 2019.

  1. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Good points.

    This year is so weird that it’s hard to draw any conclusions about the team. Losing Verlander is a concrete loss of a projected frontline SP, but all the other reasons to rebuild (Altuve’s decline, Alvarez’s frailty, etc.) are centered on things solely related to this pandemic season.

    As you mentioned it’s not like any other AL team (especially any AL West team) is running away with the future pennants. And if they really do permanently expand the playoffs, it will dramatically change the calculus, as there will be massive advantage to being a 85-90 win team over 15 years rather than a 95-100 win team for 5 years. In that scenario I do think it would make sense for Houston to do a soft rebuild (trading Correa, Greinke, Pressly, and McCullers) to morph from a WS contender with a narrower window to a perennial playoff team with an infinite window.
     
  2. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Dude. You are trying to say Pujols had a career ending injury that didn’t end his career. That’s ridiculous. You don’t suffer a career-ending injury, then realize you’re on a guaranteed contract, and keep playing. By ****ing definition, if the injury were career ending, he would not have been able to continue to play regardless of his contract status.
     
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  3. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    I'm not freaking out about Altuve or Bregman. Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, JD Martinez, Justin Upton, Max Kepler, Carlos Santana, Christian Yellich, Victor Robles, Ramon Laureano, Gary Sanchez, Miguel Cabrera, Jorge Polanco, Josh Bell, Yoan Moncado, Pete Alonso, Austin Meadows, Joey Gallo, and Anthony Rizzo are all having bad to really bad seasons.
     
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  4. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Yes, I think Pujols's dramatic decline in 2017 was aided by injuries, and that he may be the worst position player in recent history of the MLB to be allowed to continue playing regularly for a playoff contender (i.e., he should have been cut and his career should have ended in 2017). Angels choose to keep a sunk cost on their roster.
     
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  5. astros123

    astros123 Member

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    You have to seriously wonder how much the cheating allegations are getting to Tuve's head. Altuve played off the "underdog" tag and he cherished being loved by young kids and fans across the league. It gives some players a different motivation that we will never understand. Altuve went from one of the biggest role models in MLB to being one of the most hated and some of you guys pretend that everything is all good. Lets also not forget that he's on the wrong age of 30 and that infield hits that he would routinely get just arent falling through.

    There were some posters that were living in lala land that Lance was going to come back and somehow automatically fill in the #2 or #3 spot. Guy has been injury-prone his entire life and we somehow expect him to whip back into shape after TJ. Last season was our last year to win .
     
  6. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    If this was a normal full season I would be concerend. It's not. Everyone is dealing with a lot of stress. If Altuve stinks next season then I will be concerned. A lot of star players are playing bad. I don't hear many talking about them being "done".

    I never expected McCullers to be that good. I thought Urquidy would be the 3rd guy. Also, I did expect more from McCullers when the season got shortened. It took the innings limit out of the equation and the dude still couldn't finish the season without getting hurt.
     
  7. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Very strange, idiotic hill to die on, but you do you brother.
     
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  8. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    It takes two to Tango...
     
  9. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Doing a soft rebuild (trading Greinke, McCullers, Pressly, and Correa) would take Houston’s win projection for 2021-2024 down into the 85-90 win range. But payroll would be VERY low ($65M in 2021 not counting Verlander’s $33M, $60M in 2022, $95M in 2023, $110M in 2024). An 85 win roster with $120M in annual payroll space and a farm ranked in the 7-15 range is a really healthy starting place for a 5 year outlook.
     
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  10. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    I don't see that as being even remotely likely. Greinke's trade value is limited. With the Dbacks paying 10.3 million of his salary the Astros still owe him 25.4 million next season. In order to get any kind of asset in return you would need to eat some of that salary. He hasn't pitched great this year either. Plus, plenty of names available in free agency. The only guy that exceeds a 25 million dollar salary will be Bauer and Tanaka will probably get over 20 million a year. With Covid I dont' see teams taking on that Greinke salary. McCullers value isn't great either. He hasn't thrown over 128 innings in a season. He's been hit or miss this season and when it goes bad he implodes. If he has a nice playoff performance MAYBE he has some value. Pressly has also not been that good and seems to have chronic problems with that knee. The reliever market is also pretty good with guys like Shane Green, Liam Hendricks, Jeremy Jeffress, and Blake Treinen that won't be making much more than Pressly and only cost money and not an asset. The only guy you listed that gets a top 100 prospect back is Correa. I don't see the point in trading the other guys for limited return. Especially if baseball keeps the expanded playoffs. Our division is trash and even the A's have a lot of decisions to make on their roster.
     
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  11. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    I never bought the idea that a single rebuild, even when it goes mostly right, lends itself to a perennial and continual WS contender. IMO, it buys you a window where you can jump ahead of the others guys, for a while. But it catches up to you when all your cheap talent wants to get paid, any many of them get paid more going somewhere else.
     
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  12. sealclubber1016

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    No, a ton of f**king money is the only way to do that.

    All of the mortal franchises have to take steps back. Some big, some small, but perennially winning 90 games doesn't happen for 95% of the league. You build your team, supplement it with proven guys, and take your shot. Afterwards you stop to take a breath for a few years and then back at it if you have a well run organization.

    The full scale ground up rebuild we had to endure from 09-15 should not happen, and won't happen. It was born out of necessity due to an embarrassing carelessness with the farm.
     
  13. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    Yet, the temptation to cash in minor league assets for guys who can make us a little better right now is still very much in place. Once you get to the top (2017), you want to stay there. Its hard to be restrained and not cash in your future.
     
  14. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Greinke has been the 10th most valuable pitcher in the league this season. Of course who knows what impact the pandemic will have on major league payrolls; if every team is trying to reduce payroll then obviously Greinke’s surplus value goes way down. But a hall of fame pitcher who has been one of the 10 best in the game for a long time and is still very effective on a 1 year $22M deal is a very good value; see what Houston gave up to acquire Verlander (Perez was ranked in the middle of most Top 100 lists, Cameron was on the back end of some lists, Rogers was an Org Top 20 type).

    Pressly certainly wouldn’t bring back a Top 100 guy but if he remains effective over the next month as he has been in the last week then he has surplus value. I would expect an Org Top 20 type.
     
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  15. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    Ranking pitchers by WAR in a shortened season with all the issues and game cancellations by Covid is not a fair evaluation. I can list a lot more than 10 guys that have been better than Greinke.
     
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  16. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Oh the old stats are meaningless compared to my unsubstantiated opinion cool cool cool
     
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  17. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    You picked one WAR calculation to make your argument. ESPN has Greinke 45 in WAR among pitchers and baseball reference does not have him in the top 10 in WAR among pitchers. Fangraphs has him at 10th and tied with a bunch of others. When I see Lance Lynn listed below Greinke on that list I throw it out in a second. Lynn has an era over a run less, has thrown 16 more innings, and has a lower WHIP. If you want to tell me that Greinke has been a better pitcher than Lynn this season because your one stat says so then yes your stat is meaningless.
     
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  18. phasors28

    phasors28 Member

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    This may have been mentioned somewhere in this thread but if one of Whitley or Santos develops into at least a #3, the Astros will have a very nice young core of pitchers. Add one FA #1 or #2 and we are right back in it.
     
  19. Screaming Fist

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    Even if Greinke has performed well this season, I would think Greinke's continued velo loss would have to scare many teams from making a trade. He has adjusted well this season, but if the trend continues next year something's eventually going to give and it could mean a very rapid decline.
     
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  20. torque

    torque Contributing Member

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    Next year's lineup with nobody else resigned or added (now that Yuli has signed an extension):

    1. Altuve 2B
    2. Bregman 3B
    3. Tucker RF
    4. Alvarez DH
    5. Gurriel 1B
    6. Correa SS
    7. McCormick LF
    8. Maldonado C
    9. Straw CF

    Bench: Stubbs, Toro, Dawson?

    This is a good lineup that can contend for a division title, but an outfielder is sorely needed. Crane should have more than enough money available to get one though. If you add Brantley to that lineup, it's just as good as any of the current era lineups we have run out there.
     
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