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Updated 5 year outlook

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Snake Diggit, Aug 2, 2019.

  1. torque

    torque Contributing Member

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    On the contrary, I would be absolutely shocked if there is no insurance policy the Astros will draw on for Verlander's contract. Sometimes teams take out general injury policies and sometimes on specific contracts. I know the other major sports leagues require insurance in some form for contracts, MLB doesn't, but almost all if not all teams have insurance for player injuries in some form.
     
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  2. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I hope you’re right. If that’s the case it almost could turn out to be a boon for the Astros. Without Verlander’s contract, Houston has less than $115M committed in 2021. That’s a ton of money to be able to fill in any roster wholes.
     
  3. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    Correa is no longer a top 5 shortstop in my opinion. Not sure what his contract demands will be but I can find 5 guys in the list below I would rather have. His AAV should not even get near 25 million at this point.

    Tim Anderson
    Trea Turner
    Corey Seager
    Trevor Story
    Fernando Tatis Jr.
    Xander Bogaerts
    Francisco Lindor
    Javier Baez
    Gleyber Torres
     
  4. HTown2017Champs

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    He's a better defender than all except Lindor IMO, but his bat isn't quite what it was before. While it's a bad look, and I HIGHLY doubt it happens, trading him for two top 100 prospects, rather than get just a comp pick (which would come once we get 1st and 2nd rounders again, BTW) is better for our long-term future.
     
  5. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I don’t think Houston trades Correa unless they decide to rebuild, in which case at a minimum Greinke, Pressly, and McCullers would also be traded, and they’d probably be willing to at least listen on Bregman, Alvarez, and Tucker.

    Were Houston willing to tank 2021 on a short turn rebuild, Correa/Greinke/McCullers could probably be flipped for a total of 4-5 Top 100 prospects, giving Houston a farm that would probably be back in the top 10 in the league. They’d have a ton of money to spend in 2022 to get things back on track, as after those trades payroll for 2021 would be well under $100M. Rotation built around Valdez/Urquidy/Whitley, bullpen built around Taylor/Paredes/Javier, offense built around Bregman/Tucker/Alvarez/Altuve, plus whatever prospects they add in the trades. Not a bad starting place with $100M+ available to spend to fill in the gaps.
     
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  6. Major

    Major Member

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    Where did you hear this from? Outside of very specific situations, I doubt most contracts are insured. The main time you hear it is with college players that decide to come back for one more year insuring themselves in case of injury causing them to drop substantially in the draft or not get drafted at all. But that's an example of players insuring themselves rather than teams doing it.
     
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  7. Screaming Fist

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    Correa is hard to peg. He’s had some great offensive production when he’s healthy but this season has been pretty disappointing for him. Also, while he can make some jaw dropping defensive plays, the advanced stats seam mixed on him as a fielder.
     
  8. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    He’s probably the AL Gold Glove winner, how is he not a top 5 SS?
     
  9. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    His OPS is currently 13th among qualifying shortstops.

    I also doubt he wins the gold glove over Lindor considering nobody wants an Astro to win anything.

    Tim Anderson won a batting title last year and is following it up with a .365 average this year. Corey Seager is mashing with a .312 avg, 13 HRs, and a .958 OPS. His career OPS is also slightly higher than Correa. Fernando Tatis is one of the best players in baseball and might win an MVP. Lindor is a better fielder with 2 Gold Gloves and 4 top 10 MVP finishes. Correa has 0 top 10 MVP finishes. Lindor is also having a better offensive year than Correa this year. Bo Bichette has put up almost as much offensive production in less than half the games Correa has played. Bichette has more HRs, a better avg, a better OPS, and only 6 RBIs less than Correa. Correa has played in 50 games. Bichette has only played in 21 and trails Correa by only .4 in WAR for the season. The last 3 seasons Trevor Story has played 140 or more games every year. Correa has only done that once in his career. Story has two 30 HR seasons. Correa has none. Story is mashing this year with a .303 AVG, 11 HR, .937 OPS, and has 14 stolen bases. He probably will get a 30-30 season in his career. Correa has 2 seasons with an OPS over 900. Story has 3 plus his shortened rookie year.
     
  10. Nook

    Nook Member

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    This.

    I suspect the back coupled with missing so much time has taken a toll on Correa. He is still a good ball player but he isn’t a top 5 SS and you can make an argument he isn’t a top 10 because of injury risk.

    He should have taken the hundred million plus the Astros offered him a few years ago. It is quite possible at this point the Astros can keep him if they really want to.
     
  11. Nook

    Nook Member

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    As for Verlander, I am trying to get confirmation that the team did insure him.

    Typically policies insure 50-80%. Most teams buy policies but Verlander’s would be very expensive (likely 10% of his contract to buy) because of his position and age. Also some policies specifically exclude TJ surgery.

    There seems to be the belief the Astros will cut salary next year, but I haven’t heard that at this point.
     
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  12. HTown2017Champs

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    This. Did not think about it, but very likely that voters will take that into account. His highlight reel is spectacular, combined with his arm strength, athleticism, and saving so many runs with double plays. But for "reasons" he may not win it. Whatever, they've done stupid stuff before, such as giving a DH the Gold Glove at 1B one time.
     
  13. sealclubber1016

    Supporting Member

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    I thought coming into the season Correa's camp should have tried to work out a one year extension for the 22 season, and that was before his offensive disappointment this year.

    Between his inability to put together a full season, and the continued financial fallout from COVID there's no way he's even remotely close to to his earning potential, even if he does manage to put it all together for one massive season next year.

    I think he still can be a MVP level superstar, but he hasn't proven that or even come close due to injury
     
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  14. Nook

    Nook Member

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    FWIW I think he can be an MVP level superstar for a number of years as well. Right now he is dealing with a lot of distractions, injuries have to be on his mind and he hasn’t had years of consistently playing 150 games a year.

    I also agree with you, Correa May be really smart to sign a one or two year extension and see if he stays healthy and explodes. Two straight healthy years of 35 homers and 900 OPS likely gets him closer to 150 million dollar contract... I think the numbers he discussed 3-4 years ago are gone.
     
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  15. HTown2017Champs

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    Delete, wrong thread
     
  16. torque

    torque Contributing Member

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    Here's an article from a quick Google search: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-100-million-arm-there-is-insurance-for-that/
     
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  17. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    Unless Correa has a great year in terms of health and production next season he might have to think hard about taking a qualiying offer. Barring injury or extensions, he will be competing in the market against Story, Lindor, Baez, and Seager.
     
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  18. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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  19. Major

    Major Member

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    Ha - I just came here to post that. After your post, I decided to look it up. Pretty fascinating - I had no idea! From that link:

    Unlike the NBA and NHL, Major League Baseball has no mandatory insurance policy that clubs buy into, insuring the five most expensive contracts on a roster should they miss a certain number of consecutive games. (In the NHL, it’s 30.) Baseball clubs must go into an open marketplace and try to purchase insurance on their own.

    “The majority of teams do buy insurance,” said Dan Burns, the CEO of Pro Financial Services, a company that has been providing such policies for more than 35 years.

    The policies, Burns said, are fairly straightforward. The decisions on whether to buy can be difficult. There are four main components that determine the club’s cost: the dollar amount of the contract the team wants to insure; whether the player is a pitcher or not, because pitchers cost “probably two-and-a-half to three times” as much to insure as position players, Burns said; age, because it’s cheaper to insure a younger, healthy player; and, finally, the length of the contract, which can get tricky, because companies don’t generally issue seven-year policies to cover seven-year contracts, preferring to offer the insurance in two- or three-year chunks.

    Interestingly, I wonder if this means that if you sign someone to a big deal and they start sucking, your team has incentive to want them to get injured and have some kind of major surgery so you can get your money back.
     
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  20. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    I'd be more interested in how he affects the 2 year outlook.
     

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