Alvarez should be the LF corner bat. correa should be re-signed- we clearly have the payroll flexibility to do so and too end talent is key in playoffs imo. Toro could get us there with the rest of the quality in the lineup, but I don’t want him in big situations in the post season. I wouldn’t go ace hunting in FA. Bats in walk years come cheap at the deadline- so do bullpen pieces. Save some powder for that every year.
Just saw this. There will be guys that produce negative value. Currently, the Astros have -2.7 fWAR from club controlled players from the farm who have failed so far despite having a stacked team. Sure, if Lee and Leon both perform well, the 11 WAR will likely be a drastic underestimate. Though, if they both bust, I'm not sure the rest of the farm can over up the negative value produced from those that bust. Edit: I do like Leon, Lee, and Brown more than FanGraphs did the last time they updated the Astros rankings so I would go the over on 11 WAR from that time period. I think Leon is the real x Factor as he could crush it by himself if he hits well. Without Leon, I don't think the Astros Farm greatly exceeds the value based on FanGraphs rankings.
With the caveat that the club controlled players currently on the roster came from a much more highly rated farm, they are putting up a huge amount of positive net value despite the number of guys putting up negative fwar. Considering Houston’s a contending team, I would expect the war from minor contributors to be at worst, a wash over several years. So the net will be largely determined by the prospects who get large chunks of time, and we can reasonably expect those players to post positive war (because otherwise the contending Astros will replace them). Also, valuing all those prospects means also including any surplus value they would expect to bring in via trade. I don’t think Houston’s farm necessarily contains any guaranteed star players, but 2.75 fwar/yr is a tiny number.
I think the Astros farm is under rated. Lee, Leon, and Peña all have fairly easy paths to being a second division regular through defense, with the chance for much more if the bat plays. Myles Straw doesn't have near the upside of any of those guys, and he's virtually tied with Ramon Laureano and Adolis Garcia as a top 25 OF in terms of fWAR right now thanks to defense and baserunning. Brown and Whitley have some of the best stuff in the minors. The Astros should have the resources to not rely on prospects that are going to be below replacement level.
2010 we had the worst farm system in the league. Jose Altuve, JD Martinez, & Dallas Keuchel were in that system (plus Jason Castro). I'd bet the over because there are always hidden gems. Heck, our starting pitchers the last 2 years are proof of that as none of them were top end prospects, but Urquidy, Framber, & Garcia just keep getting the job done.
Whether it be Tyler White, AJ Reed, Taylor Jones, or Tony Kemp, there will almost always be guys under club control producing negative value except from the deepest of teams (e.g., 2017 and 2019 Astros). Some of it is just a bad year (Kemp), some of it is transitioning to the majors (Tucker), and some times it is misreading a prospect (Jones).
Taylor Jones has been impressively bad, which is strange given his AAA numbers. Sure there are going to be sub replacement level players, but the Astros can limit the damage by adding quality backups like Diaz and Castro, keeping guys like Stubbs and Mayfield in AAA.
They will limit it some, but it shouldn't be much different than this year's numbers. I do expect I am under estimating the WAR from the farm using this spreadsheet, but it should get a lot better with the next update by FanGraphs on the farm. My spreadsheet shouldn't be off on the farm by a large amount (maybe 3-4 in WAR year low one year, but 1-2 high in another year) unless someone really performs well. Without having an injury risk factor (e.g., Bregman getting hurt for a significant portion of this year is probably a 3 WAR negative by itself), I'm hesitant to try to capture every scrap of positive value. Considering the amount of unknown, I'd rather go with something that has slightly under projected the Astros overall in good years and over projected the win totals by a lot when hurt than try to be perfect on a small detail. The farm has a few guys that will make fine backups/2nd division starters, but it is hard to be overly enthusiastic about the prospects when only Lee, Pena, Leon, and Brown look to be the impacts soon. I don't see guys in the Top 6 in K%-BB% in AA and AAA currently like Urquidy, Valdez, and Javier did as prospects.
That's fair. I wasn't so much criticizing your comment as much as I wanted an excuse to talk about how much I like Lee, Leon, and Peña. I think the Astros were able to grab some low hanging fruit previously in their scouting and player development, which will be harder as the league catches up. I think this year's numbers are a little skewed because Jones has been abysmal as a bat-first player.
I get it. It is just weird seeing small things nitpicked when I've seen injuries, lack of depth (e.g., my system always over-rates the Angels), how much a team will spend, arbitration costs, free agent signings/trades either being good or bad, and drastically under/over performing pythagorean wins as much bigger sources of error than the farm numbers except for when a team has a lot of prospects (e.g., Mariners).
I actually love spreadsheets and your projections, but I couldn't pass up the opportunity at the Name play.
What would the likelihood of the Astros running with the team below after next season and spending money on extensions to keep their own players? C - Lee / Diaz 1B - Small Yuli extension or Jones 2B - Altuve 3B - Bregman SS - Pena or Leon LF - Leon or Chas CF - Meyers RF - Tucker DH - Alvarez SP - LMJ, Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia, Brown, Javier, Whitley RP - Maton, Taylor, Paredes, all the extra AAAA starters and the like I'm not saying that this is a WS contender or anything like that, and I expect the Astros to sign one position player and one starting pitcher, as well as a relief pitcher or two along the way, but could this team look something like this after next season? If Lee, Pena and Leon can all come up and hit, should still be a fun team to watch.
C: Lee is probably going to be ready in the 2nd half of next season which makes sense for him to take over for Maldy. Houston’s catching depth is such that at least one other prospect (Papierski, Diaz, Salazar, Manea, etc.) should be ready to take over for Castro as the backup. 1B: Extending Yuli for one more year probably makes sense if he remains productive next season and is willing to take a relatively cheap deal. Houston does not have an elite 1B prospect but they have several prospects who might pan out into everyday caliber 1B by 2023 (Jones, Diaz, Perez, Norel Gonzalez). They should know a lot more by this time next year. Also, Houston’s development track record means they should have an endless supply of Taylor Jones types to man the 13th position player bench bat role. 2B: Altuve bouncing back was huge and solidifies the 2B projection thru 2024. There’s too much to figure out between now and then but it’s safe to assume that Altuve will be extended or they will have developed an adequate replacement by then. SS: The big question. For now I think Houston will explore the market for SS, including Correa, although I think Correa will be out of their price range. Semien, Taylor, Baez, or Story might make a lot of sense if the prices are relatively reasonable. Houston can afford to take on a 9 figure contract, it’s just a matter of if it’s a good value. It is pretty clear that Houston thinks very highly of both Pena and Leon, so it would not surprise me at all if they either stood pat (meaning Diaz and somebody like Garcia or De Goti would man SS until Pena or Leon was ready) or were very frugal in their free agent solution (meaning signing one of the 2nd tier guys to a 1 year make-good deal or drawing from the 3rd tier of Villar, Galvis, Escobar, Simmons, or Iglesias). There should be plenty of utility candidates to replace Diaz after next season, with Leon in a super utility role a very appealing possibility. 3B: They’re married to Bregman here and he’s signed thru 2024. They really need him to stay healthy. RF: Tucker is a star player although I don’t think he’s an extension candidate for now. He’s under control thru 2025. CF: Meyers’ breakout cements him as the projected starting CF; he could be an extension candidate this offseason if he’s willing to take a team friendly deal. At his age an extension would be more about cost certainty than buying out free agent years, although I assume they’d buy out at least one free agent year. Under the current CBA he’s under control thru 2027. LF: It would surprise me but not shock me if Brantley were shopped this offseason. He is a very good value at $16M and an integral part of the clubhouse but Houston’s OF depth makes it such that they could probably afford to part with him if another team wanted him badly enough. Otherwise I expect McCormick to be shopped. Either way, Houstons OF depth means it’s likely that there is a prospect ready to take over after next season (whether McCormick, Siri, Dawson, Matijevic, Julks, Leon, or another prospect). Houston appears to have an endless supply of high quality 4th OF. DH: Alvarez is a stud and under control thru 2025. I doubt he’s interested in an extension, but if he’s open to it Houston should pursue it. SP: My opinion is that aside from addressing SS (or not), Houston’s biggest need this offseason is adding a pitcher who teams don’t want to face in Game 1 of a playoff series. There are not very many of those guys out there, but Houston should have the assets to pursue them (whether it’s using financial means to add a free agent like Verlander, Scherzer, or Kershaw, or trading prospects for someone like Castillo or Marquez). That said, Houston has 5 viable SP under control for next season in Valdez, McCullers, Garcia, Urquidy, and Odorizzi, and they have a very good stable of upper level arms who should supply a steady stream of promotions. Pitching is extremely hard to predict, but for now Houston’s future in this regard is very bright. Garcia, Valdez, and Urquidy are prime extension candidates, as is Javier. BP: See above, Houston has a need to replace Graveman and possibly even add another late inning arm, but their pitching in the upper levels of the minors makes me think they should be opportunistic here. To answer your question, yes I think your projected 2023+ roster makes a lot of sense and has a good chance to be a contender. One caveat is that the CBA has the potential to dramatically alter these projections as it could have big changes to pre-free agent salaries and when players reach free agency.
Edited for what I would consider to be the 2023 pieces more or less in place hoping Leon (or Pena)/Brown/Lee become starters. It seems odd that 4 pieces of the rotation look set with 3 additional guys 2 years out, health willing. I don't think Astros would do it, but Freeman would be a great fit for the lineup of the future.
Love reading your posts, Snake. I might not agree 100% all the time (though it's close), but love the insight every time. I would love to trade from our excess (that group of 2-5 starting pitchers and OF depth) to be able to land one of the pitchers you mentioned in a trade, especially if it was done during the off-season so that pitcher can work with the pitching staff during the entire Spring Training. I know that you proposed a trade for Marquez giving up Brown, and I know you have to trade talent to get talent so this would be difficult, but if we could trade for Marquez or Castillo and keep Brown, that would be awesome.
If they cheap out all over the diamond like what you are talking about they damn sure better have 2 things in mind: 1) Signing a stud game 1 Starter. They better sign them- if they are going that cheap than screw giving up prospects- I want and ace and I don't want to expend more than cash 2) They damn sure better be open to going and trading for the best bat on the market every trade deadline to carry them over with whatever of those reclamation projects don't look playoff ready. This seems like a really cheap payroll. My goal isn't for Crane to win the cost per win division it's to win it all. That team doesn't look like a good candidate to do that at all. That team looks like a waste of some prime years for a lot of guys.
Altuve and Bregman aren't and won’t be cheap. Not including the incredibly low payroll teams, the way for the Astros to win it all is for one of three things to happen: 1) win cost per win among teams with a moderate to high payroll 2) dumb luck 3) spend more than other teams such that cost per win isn't needed. I don't see #3 happening and don't think it is wise to rely on dumb luck. I fully expect Astros to continue to have very competitive payrolls though I'm not to sure where they will end up spending it.
Going into a season with little to no payroll flexibility (as Houston did this season) is not ideal. I want Houston to field a roster that projects for 50+ fwar. If they can do that cheaply and save hunks of money for if/when their luck runs out, I’m all for it. Crane has earned the benefit of the doubt with fans both with his willingness to spend and with the quality of people he’s brought in underneath him.
