I'm going to go ahead an jinx this election by saying Biden will win. Because I don't actually believe in jinxes. Now, people will object that Trump won't accept the results. Which is probably true. But let's fast forward through all that bs to the point where Trump recedes ignominiously to the background. Who are the leaders of the Republican party who need to clean up (or make worse) the mess that Trump left? There are the 'principled Republican' types like Romney, Amash, Flake or the Lincoln Project who can say they are traditional conservatives without the Trumpism. I get the feeling they won't find any traction. Trump base voters think they're traitors. There are the Trumpists who hitched their wagons directly to his, who can promise to do all the bigoted and authoritarian stuff that Trump would have done, but maybe with a bit more discipline and new packaging. Someone like DeSantis maybe, or Ted Cruz. Then there are the appeasers, like the guys in Congress who didn't really agree but kept their heads down and went along just hoping to survive until the political conditions changed. I think Paul Ryan probably fits in this camp. And finally, it's possible the Republican party gets some green shoots, newcomers who come to fill the vacuum and redefine the party again. I mean, I don't think it's likely, but its possible. And if we did get another 'outsider' to come dominate conservative politics, it seems likeliest that it would be someone even more overtly alt-right than Trump.
The cynic in me expects things to just reset to what it was like in Obama's first term. Learn from what worked with Trumpism, but do it smarter.
I've been saying this for awhile. The 2022 Republican primaries are likely going to be a war between the Trumpists and those who want to take the party away from Nativism. This very well could extend to the 2024 primaries. In the long run the Republican party isn't going to be able to sustain itself as the Nativist and white grievance party it's possible the party fractures.
I also predict that several Republicans such as Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham will quickly disavow themselves from Trump. If Graham wins and Biden wins I expect you'll see Graham sucking up to Biden as his old buddy again.
This would be the climate that a ROSS PEROT could definitely step in Could this be a split in the party? Republicans and REAL REPUBLICANS? Rocket River
It’ll be a more intelligent, more well-spoken trash human being like Tom Cotton. I don’t know why some of you think it’ll be different. We all know doubling down on stupid is a tried and true Republican strategy with the “base”.
If Dems don’t go along with what their progressive members want I could see it being someone like Tulsi Gabbard or Andrew Yang .
It seems to me that even with all the crap and crimes Trump has commited he would have won the elections if it wasn't for Covid. So as long as there isn't a once in a century pandemic, why would the Republicans need to change if it works? They could renounce Trump but not Trumpism. Extreme right populism.
Break that filibuster, watch lazy politicians pass laws. That'll shake the tree up. GOP will be forced to bring in thinkers because billionaire donors don't really want an armed rebellion with their **** candidates leading by tweeting. They've gotten away with wormtongue backdealing sumbitches like McConnell and Cruz for too long. I think it worked because Dems tried to be responsible and fix the establishment whille Cons just backloaded all their gifts, sucked the republic dry, and amplified poor uneducated sentiment. They relied on the cyclical nature of our elections to play good cop while choking out minorities and stealing from the public.
It does feel like a split is coming. I don't see how we can continue with Trump's coalition after this failure or go back to the pre-Trump party. Maybe this is crazy, but there's some common ground between some of the America First voters in Trump's base that like his protectionism and the labor interests among the Bernie Bros. There is meanwhile some common interest between the anarcho-capitalist tendencies of West Coast techie Democrats and Lincoln Project Republicans. So I could imagine a scenario in which you have a libertarianish party versus a protectionist-socialist party, each inheriting big chunks from the old Republicans and Democrats. But that's for later. It seems to me the main fault line in politics today is on Diversity & Inclusion. Democrats had moved increasingly toward one end of that spectrum while Republicans drifted slowly after until the Tea Party and then Trump came along and defined them squarely on the other end. I can't imagine all those Trumpers will suddenly abandon those things they elected Trump for, so I'm betting on a repackaged jingoist. In the Senate, I think that's Ted Cruz. But there's probably a couple of governors to challenge him.
Also, I wouldn’t rule out Trump himself running again if he’s still alive. He will be offered TV deals certainly so he will stay relevant with his voters that way. I don’t think even a little bit that him losing the election changes the dynamics of the electorate. 35-40% of Americans are terrible people and they’ll be angrier than hell once Trump loses. There will be all kinds of conspiracies about stealing the election, fraud, and the deep state. This is a big reason why Biden should make zero effort to cater to these Trump voters. It would be a huge waste of time.
It's scary that you probably are right. That's what makes me feel pessimistic about our future and voting public of this country.
Assuming Trump loses = big assumption. Assuming he will ever leave office = another big assumption. The very nature of the next few months will have a big impact on the OP's very question. Even if Biden wins, exactly how he wins and how that might affect down-ballot races will have impact on the future GOP than all the last several years (I would argue).
I've been thinking lately that there is a good chance Twitter will suspend his account at some point in the future ... and some surprise new app is going to be ready to snap that up, probably with part ownership by Trump
I dont know but from what I am reading there is a change in demographics in many states like Texas, Georgia, Arizona .. In 4 years from now all these high schoolers who have had their political concience activated with demonstrations and activism will be able to vote. The problem always is that the young dont vote. If they do vote then the older who are more prone to right populism will have less of a say.
No, he wasn't. The only scenario Trump was going to win re-election was with a wildcard opponent - a Bernie Sanders type (which just creates more variance, so he could have won or lost even worse). A Biden type was always going to win against Trump, Covid or not. He'd still have been batshit insane and done crazy things, and people aren't voting on the economy, just as they didn't in 2018 when the economy was also great. This is very possible, largely because a chunk of GOP elected officials are now true believers. The Paul Ryans and Jeff Flakes of the world left office to not have to deal with Trump.
I don't think there's any chance he runs again, but he's going to be a kingmaker within the party. He has an army of followers, and whoever he endorses will be in a dominant position in the primaries. Unlike Obama, he's not going to stay silent - if a non-Trumper runs in 2024, he's going to rail against them and take them down in the primaries, so it's going to be a while before the party is disassociated with Trump.