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Statistical Analysis about the ARIZA, PARSONS contracts and working out their value around the leagu

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Voice of Aus, Jul 20, 2014.

  1. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    Introduction

    It was unfortunate for me to book a holiday between the 6th and the 17th of July (prme FA season) this year overseas where wifi and keeping up to date with the Rockets offseason drama was hard to manage however since my return I have been intrigued with the Ariza vs Parsons situation,

    I understand the sensitivity still surrounding this issue and the pitchforks are still out for Parsons however for me anyways, its time to analysis what happened and move forward and get excited for the impending season.


    **Firstly just for future reference I bring up Overall Real Peformance (ORP). ORP is a simple metric I created for this thread which is just PER * Estimated wins added (EWA), the reason I used EWA instead of EWA48 is because EWA rewards players who have stayed injury free or play a large proportion of the games in the 2013-14 season.


    2013-2014 Review

    Before analysing the 2014 new salaries and offseason moves the 2013-14 seasons results must be taken into account.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    as you can see both Parsons and Arza both clearly surpass the average mean for the amount of salary each got paid in the 2013-2014 season. Based on my created metric of ORP shows Ariza having the superior season overall compared to Parsons (only Gallinari 2012-13 and Evans had greater ORP seasons from players making 5-16 million at the SF position).

    Chandler does come in at a respectful 5th out of 20 candidates and based on his ORP, and he was clearly the best bargain in not just in the players in the graph above but all SF’s including Superstars Lebron James, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony as seen below

    [​IMG]



    As shown above both Parsons and Ariza rank in the top 5 in their contracts value based on ORP / Salary.


    2014 Offseason

    Parsons

    Going into the 2014 Offseason I was going to post my findings based on my formula i created.

    The way I tried create this tool was by 2 main variables 1) Player X’s current production (ORP) vs Players who play the same position as him (other SF's ORP) , and 2) how much money SF's make in comparison.

    Without trying to bore everyone the end answer I came up with was

    [​IMG]


    so something just over the 11 million dollar range was an acceptable salary for Chandler. Dallas offering their 3/$46,084,500 contract in my opinion had the same view however of coarse my figure doesn’t factor in for anomalies such as age, overpaying to secure RFA and the fact Dallas wanted to eat up Houston’s Cap room going forward had we matched. the contract Chandler received worked out to be a 28% pay raise over my figure to secure Parsons.

    Ariza

    Using the same method to work out what Ariza should of made in free agency I discovered the results below

    [​IMG]

    As my data shows above the findings demonstrate that Ariza deserved just over a 15% more salary per season compared to Parsons, However due to age, the fact he was a UFA and he is signing with a team with 2 top 10 players and getting a 4 year deal whilst being over 29 already it seems this figure may be to high. In saying that using my figure comparing to what Ariza actually got 40% less salary compared to my calculated one above.

    2014-15 Season

    Ceteris paribus (meaning if all players stats and performances stays the exact same from the previous season) then this is now how the SF’s contract values will be illustrated (note some FA’s such as Marion are not included as they have not signed yet)

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    as demonstrated above if Ariza is able to capture his 2013-14 form then he will still be an underpaid asset at Morey’s disposal. Parsons on the otherside goes form the best contract in the NBA to now being a below the mean output for the salary he makes per season.

    Exemplified further a table showing the contracts values change form 2013-14 vs 2014-15

    [​IMG]


    Ariza has not moved spots with his new contract remaining at 5th on the SF contract value chart, however Parsons has fell from 1st to 11th (the biggest drop of any SF in the NBA).

    Interesting the biggest rise is Peirce rising from 11th to 4th taking the MLE with the wizards over the offseason.


    Extra

    Marion

    Im intrigued on what money Marion will demand on the free market being the only capable starting SF left on the market, perhaps his tactic was to wait and then hope teams become desperate and overpay him or maybe he already knows his fate a a vet min to exception player. By my calculations Marion to be of solid value should get something around 5 million range as seen below.

    [​IMG]

    He may take less to win or try and cash in get 1 last payday before its to late but I just wanted to quantify all this speculation that he is a MLE target.


    Random Parsons vs Ariza Stats and charts

    Regular Season

    [​IMG]

    Post Season

    [​IMG]
    Shooting the basketball
    Efg%
    Ariza .562
    Cp25 .538
    True Shooting
    Ariza .590
    CP25 .565

    Ast%
    Ariza 10.8
    CP25 17.3

    Rebounding

    ORB%
    Ariza 4.1%
    CP25 2.9%
    DRB%
    Ariza 16.3%
    CP25 12.8%
    TRB%
    Ariza 10.1%
    Parsons 8.2%

    Defence
    StL%
    Ariza 2.4%
    CP25 1.6%
    BLK%
    Ariza .6%
    CP25 .8%

    Defensive Rating

    Ariza 104
    Parsons 108

    Win Shares total
    Ariza 8
    CP25 7.6

    Win Shares per 48
    Ariza .141
    CP25 .131

    Corner 3
    Ariza .446
    CP25 .427


    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/arizatr01.html
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/parsoch01.html
    Conclusion

    Thiers no real easy right or wrong answer here as my numbers are just that, they don’t factor in a variety of things as mentioned earlier such as age, position of the team etc… however all my indicators point to the fact Parsons got a slight overpay, far more than what seemed like an appropriate amount to match which morey ended up doing exactly declining to match,

    Arizas contract while the length being 4 years bothers me, the amount of salary per year, if he can continue his previous form should make all Rockets fans excited in the fact we just upgraded the most stacked superstar position in the NBA with an elite defender who is a touch better than Chandler on the offensive end.
     
    #1 Voice of Aus, Jul 20, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2014
    20 people like this.
  2. DaonlyLA

    DaonlyLA Member

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    But each year Ariza salary goes down as he gets older.. His contract helps the team unlike Parsons..
     
  3. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    Ariza isn't over 30, he turned 29 the other day.
     
  4. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    that is 100% correct, we have frontloaded his contract to decend roughly 4.5% each year unlike Chanlers which rises over the coarse of the 3 years.

    what scares me about Arizas contract is its all guareenteed and thier are no options for a back out clause if he starts regressing faster than we expect.

    the other added benefit of chandlers contract is because he has a player option after year 2 he may decide to back out and re up on a smaller deal but longer years to maximise his revenue



    noted 29 on 6/30/1985.
     
  5. Pull_Up_3

    Pull_Up_3 Member

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    didnt read

    Ariza > Overpaid Parsons simple as that
     
  6. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    The main thing I got from this was that the Rockets need to go get Marion while he's still on the market. If Marion could get 5 mil a year from a club he would have already committed.

    My guess is teams are looking at the Ray Allen salary as the guideline for his contract offers. If the Rockets can swoop in and get him, he'd be great value for this team... even if they have to go small with him at the 4 alot during crunch time of games.

    Just because you signed Ariza on a value contract doesn't mean you don't need a player like Marion as well. You've got a guaranteed 48 minutes of great perimeter defense on the other teams best player. You've got a lineup that can really excel in small ball lineups just as if you matched Parsons and also signed another good big SF. You've got a underrated ball moving wing that knows how to keep the ball from getting sticky. You've got a hard nosed veteran that has a chip on his shoulder.... oh.... and most important of all... he now has beef with the Mavs.
     
  7. EightDoobies

    EightDoobies Member

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    Thanks for the run down.
     
  8. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    He'd make a decent small ball 4 as well, pity his agent is Dan Fegan, lol
     
  9. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    marion deserves at least a large majority of the MLE IMO for what he brings. i saw someone post he was overseas and that could be a reason but i doubt it.

    My guess he has the offer he is willing to sign but holding out for some miracle Cleveland, OKC, Spurs offer to magically fall in his lap
     
  10. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    My guess is that teams are selling him on being their Ray Allen/Heat player at that salary range and he's balking at that notion.

    Truth is, without looking at stats, he was probably the 2nd or 3rd most important Mav last year on the offensive end because of the intangibles he brings(Battierisms), and was virtually irreplaceable on the defensive end. There weren't very many signs the past couple years that he was slowing down that dramatically.

    Also Marion has basically come out and said that he feels sighted from Dallas based on what he's given them the past few years. It sounds like the Parsons signing really irked him. The chip he's going to have on his shoulder this year could be the best value you get in a veteran like him.
     
  11. Marsarinian

    Marsarinian Contributing Member

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    Great post with numbers to back it up. Repped.
     
  12. YaosDirtyStache

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    I know this is off topic but I always read OP's name as VOICE OF ANUS.
     
  13. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    i get it more than you think on this board



    thanks for that, enjoy doing this for my home country sport and occasionally try and do it with NBA while my university hasn't started
     
  14. thething

    thething Contributing Member

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    A player option is never a good thing for the team. Don't you remember the Goran Dragic debacle?
     
  15. IzakDavid13

    IzakDavid13 Contributing Member

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    I don't care for Parsons anymore. I hope Dallas don't make the playoffs for the next 10 years.
     
  16. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    haha dont remind me.

    my reasoning is and this is my opinion but, Chandler will only opt into year 3 if he plays well below what he is doing now which to me seems unlikely. basically the way i look at his contract is 2 years with the mavs having his bird rights after he opts out.
     
  17. sabesque

    sabesque Member

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    Very interesting analysis! Thanks!

    I wish there was a way to see the effect of qualitative factors like Parsons' increased d-bagness (signing offer sheet in the club + offended, etc).
     
  18. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

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    i mean anyone could've told you that ariza at $8M and descending is better than chandler at $15M and ascending.
     
  19. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    Fixed


    i dont think its that simple, the fact that this is more than likely arizas last contract before he becomes a exception/ min player compared to Parsons who you would hope doesnt flame out once he gets payed (well maybe we do ;) )

    the thread was more a look at where they sit in perspective to other SF's and i think its a fair assumption that cuban kinda wanted morey to match
     
  20. ElPigto

    ElPigto Member
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    Needed a bit more tweaking.
     
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