Statistical Analysis about the ARIZA, PARSONS contracts and working out their value around the leagu

You're the funny one because you're judging Trevor off a contract year in which was the 1st time he shot 40% from 3 in his freakin life... Playing with a great assist man like Wall.

It's also funny that you guys are trying to convince yourselves that Trevor is better by using stats...Lol.

 

I'm not saying he should average three 3's per game lol...

I was using that as an example of how in ONE game he can score 16 ppg like Parsons.

Sometimes he'll hit more and score 20-something. Sometimes he'll hit less and score 12.

But based on his ability, he can average 16 ppg in the Rockets' system.

 

kawhi will gladly take 12-13 m/yr because the spurs instill team values

 

I would like to see the analysis redone using Azira's stats from the first time around in Houston.

The positive point of view on Azira seems to be depending a whole lot on the best case scenario for Azira's performance when evaluating the outcome. As a general rule, counting on the best outcome when making projections and planning decisions is one of the most common ways that people end up getting caught with their pants down.

Ignoring risk is not a recipe for success.

 

the issue with that is that his first stint in Houston, he was basically the first option, a role he failed miserably at. Now, as the 3rd option in both Wash/Hou, he will be much better off and able to really thrive in our system.

 

That is the narrative going around. Like many explanations, it is not entirely proven, and reality is probably more complicated. The only way to test the hypothesis is watch him step out on the court this fall, and provide experimental data.

 

It can be proven that Ariza was actually third in minutes played and shot attempts the first time he was here, behind Brooks and Scola. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Harden/Howard are a better first and second option. Things will probably look better this time around. But you're right: until he step out on the court, lovers gonna love and haters gonna hate.

 

He was second in minutes last year in Washington. He was 6th in attempts, but was about 1/2 a shot attempt per game away from being 3rd on the team. So the two variables you cite are about the same during his best and worst years. In absolute numbers, it is 394 attempts in Houston, vs 389 last year in Washington, and 2629 minutes in Houston vs 2723 minutes in his best year last year.

His usage rate the first year in Houston was much higher than last year, but his usage rate his 1st year in NO (which was arguably worse statistically than his year here) was lower than it was in Washington last year.

Again, not a giant amount of data, but there doesn't seem to be a clear and relevant linear relationship in the stats.

I'm really not trying to be an ass. But I think people are making suppositions here, and then acting like those suppositions have been proven true. Really, that is how people make catastrophic mistakes in life.

At least maybe we should be discussing "just in case" scenarios. I will concede that the best case might happen, but hopefully people firmly in his camp would be willing to at least entertain the notion that it might not.

 

Parsons was pretty playing in a contract year too, right? Assuming their really was an under the table agreement that Morey would decline his last year with Dan Fegan.

 

Ariza has proven that he can be a big contributer to championship team. He knows what he can do and how to win.

 

I appreciate you offering something more than mere opinion. I'm not trying to prove much here. But I will say we're not in danger of making a catastrophic mistake, because there's nothing you or I can do about this. I just come here to find ways to enjoy the team.

So many posters complain about their "favorite" team: it's no use and it's not what I come here for. I look for ways that Ariza is good, because he's on our team now. I wasn't looking at Ariza a month ago. If others want to say he sucks, Harden sucks, McHale sucks, Morey sucks, OK. Guess they don't get much enjoyment out of their favorite team. They're just so vocal about it.

 

Parsons is just a 3 year player and there's no reason to believe that he can't improve. Trevor has been in the league 10-11 years and just had his best year as a pro. Trevor improving isn't a question at his age, but maintaining what he did last year for the 1st time in his life is the question.

Also Washington had Wall and Beal in the backcourt and a good frontcourt as well. An argument can be made that Trevor was the 4th-5th best starter on that team. Now you're asking him to fill the shoes of a guy who was the 3rd best player on a 54 win western conference team.

But the off-season is still long and Morey is still trying to make moves.

 

OP, as others pointed out, why correlate Contract Value with ORP (Overall Real Performance)? Especially since your ORP = PER x EWA which introduces some level of confusion and redundancy? You created the ORP stat and want to introduce it to us (I would too) but wouldn't your argument be more persuasive by correlating Contract Value with an established/validated/respected metric like PER, EWA, WP (wins produced), WS (win share), or even player based team fitness stats like ASPM (Advanced statistical Plus-Minus), RPM (Real Plus Minus), xRAPM (xRegularized Adjsuted Plus Minus)? I'll bet a dollar you'd probably get a similar result correlating Contract Value with PER alone or EWA alone.

 

Your concern is valid. Ariza has been an inconsistent player over the course of his career and there is a concern that he will not be as effective in Houston. My only response to that is that he has progressively improved defensively and that his 3 point shooting has been steadily improving the last few years. The improvement spanning over a season is some what reassuring. In Houston he is going to be asked to defend, finish inside and hit 3's which is different than 4-5 years ago.

There is no doubt Parsons is more of a sure thing. However if Ariza plays like he has last 18 months, the Rockets will probably actually be better off. If Ariza loses his 3 point shot, the Rockets will be fighting to make the playoffs.

 

Ariza's the better player..nothing new here..rockets will be better next season.

 

Your argument that Ariza had a better supporting staff in Washington just doesn't hold water. Further, the mythical powers of John Wall is foolish, especially compared to James Harden.

Ariza's usage rate for the Rockets will be similar to that in Washington. He is going to be asked to defend, hit 3's and score in transition. He can do that. He isn't going to be isolated or asked to create.

Ariza has improved steadily over the last few seasons. Can he lose his shot and regress? Sure, but it isn't like it is unusual for players to improve their 3 point shooting and shot selection later in their career.

Further, I agree with you, this team isn't a finished product.

 

Then what exactly is a few 3's per game that equals 9 points? When you say per game, that means every game, not one.

Scoring 16 points in one game is a far cry from averaging 16ppg. Jordan Hamilton scored 16 points in one game last year.

 

great thread, someone tell me how to rep this man!

 

The guy I was responding to said he can't see Ariza scoring 16 ppg. I was saying that I can see it. Hitting a few 3's, getting a few easy buckets, and hitting a few free throws is enough to score 16 points in a game. Sometimes he'd score more, and sometimes he'd score less. But his style of play can net 16 ppg on the Rockets.

Sorry you misunderstood. Maybe I should have been clearer. Or maybe you just like to argue / be a dick.

 

John Wall is a better point guard and runs an offense better than Harden. I don't see how anyone can debate that. You're arguing who's the best player of the two which is a point I wasn't making.

Harden is the only player on the Rockets that opposing team's defenses had to constantly focus on... Teams would pretty much just put one man on Howard and dare the Rockets to beat them with him. No one at the 4 position had to be doubled (especially when they put Howard and Asik in at the same time) and many of games Beverley could pretty much guard himself. Which means Parsons was no scrub.

And as a stated to the OP _ you can't individualize Trevor's once in a lifetime stats when he was the 4th-5th best starter on a team in the eastern conference and automatically assume he can replace what Parsons did here and or make the assumption that he's the better player.