Statistical Analysis about the ARIZA, PARSONS contracts and working out their value around the leagu

be awesome if it were my money. But we downgraded here. Ariza after Parsons is a downgrade on the court. I pray his defense makes up for it, but I don't see Ariza scoring 16ppg without plays run for him.

 

Hey Voice of Anus, EWA is based off of PER. From Hollinger's article here, http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090325

VA = ((Minutes * (PER -- Position Replacement Level)) / 67 PER per PT)
EWA = ((Minutes * (PER -- Position Replacement Level)) / 67 PER per PT)/30 PTS per W

VA is an expression of points generated
EWA is an expression of wins generated

I'm not sure what meaning the ORP unit PER*wins has. The metric also squares the value of a player's PER in the equation. Meaning, you've fit a y=x in what should be represented in x^2. The currently charted lines also likely suffer from over-fitting looking at the data spread.

 

Its going to come down to his fg%. He will be more of an outside shooter while James will drive to the rim more.

 

I also thought Parsons value was somewhere around 10m/year but I would be happy with 12m/year. The extra 3 million a year might have not been the hardest think to shallow. Morey has said time and time that his contract was going to be the headrest to trade in the NBA. I think the trade kicker and player options were the things that ultimately made Morey pass on matching.

I'm very happy with the Ariza signing, especially now that I see that his value was supposed to be in the 13m/year range. Getting him for 8m/year and on decreasing rate is huge!

Unless Parsons becomes the next Larry Bird, we made the right choice.

 

Would be a great name if he talked out of his ass.

 

You left off the points that KD scored which was 26 & 33....

I don't consider PG a super star but he did hit Trevor up for 39 points in the playoffs. And PG kept him to 12 points per game in the playoffs which rendered Trevor practically useless to his team.

None of what you showed is shutting a player down. Those players still put points on the board and scored more points than field goal attempts they took and still put constant pressure on the defense. It's not about holding a guy to under 50% shooting which is a ridiculous bar to set anyway to judge a defender.

 

Always interesting to see it when analysis are largely done using the players contract year as a benchmark.

 

I learn something everyday, wow this was a good metric to look at. I think parsons was overpaid and we got Ariza on a good deal we just need to seem them on the court and he how well he meshes with Harden & Howard. I hope he moves without the ball unlike Harden and thing is we should go get Marion, he played really well In the big D and i remember he was pretty good in the Finals against Miami. We could also try to stick it to Mark Cuban lol. I think Ariza will help us most in the Playoffs as he can hit clutch shots and accurate 3 pt. shooter. Lets go red nation

 

Can you do this for klay Thomson?

 

If he gets max

 

Chandler Parsons offense the last two years has just been an extension of James Harden and last year Dwight Howard.

Who has Chandler Parsons even slowed down the last two seasons? What I do know is that Trevor Ariza does not regularly get lit up like a Roman candle and doesn't let Nic Batum rub his face in his own waste up and down the court.

 

No prayer needed. Parsons didn't play defense.

 

You are funny.

You penalize Ariza because of them playing a slower pace and being a good defensive team.

You don't penalize Parsons for playing on a team with a very quick pace and excellent weapons in Harden and Howard.

Just give it up. If Ariza shoots 40% from 3; the Rockets will be improved... If he shots 35% or worse... The Rockets are worse off.

 

The funny thing about Parsons is his value is around 10 mil per year, which made some GM's, probably Morey, and the fans perception accept the fact that overpaying him at 12 mil per was ok.

At that point 12 mil per became what people expected him to cost. Then at that point you jump the number up to 14/15 mil and think its not that much of a jump up from 12 million.

All the while, everyone lost sight of the fact that he's really just a 10 mil a year SF... albeit one we all really liked alot.


Free agency folks. Just avoid it at all costs. That's the underrated thing that has kept the Spurs together for so long & allowed them flexibility around their core. They value the art of extensions before players gauge the market. Id be willing to bet that Kawhi Leonard gets extended sometime this year before folks seriously start looking at him as a potential free agent next Summer.

 

Then perhaps similarly refraining from commenting would have made more sense.

 

I can see it. Hit a few 3's per game... that's 9 points. He'll get a lot of open ones just like Parsons.

Get a couple easy baskets running the floor in transition.. add 4 points. Up to 13 points.

Get fouled a couple times and hit a few free throws. 16 points.


He can easily score 16 ppg just like Parsons.



Parsons didn't do anything all that special on offense.

He ran the floor and hit open 3's, made lay-ups on the fast break, and pump faked a lot when the ball was kicked out to him and drove for a lay-up.

That was 90% of his game... and that's the same way Ariza plays.

 

Deron Williams He's also did a decent job on some others. But consistent lock down defender he has not been. But Batum actually only had 2 games were he went off in the playoffs.. He didn't do as much in the other games like you guys are making it out. He averaged 15 points per game and only had 9 points in game 6.

The way Parsons played offensively here is a lot different than how Trevor played in Washington and Trevor doesn't have the same offensive skill set as Parsons and we don't have a point guard as good as John Wall.

But like I said earlier... Harden, Howard, and McHale can make up for Trevor.

 

Yeah, just hit three 3's per game. That shouldn't be a problem, since it's only been done 9 time, by a total of 6 guys since the NBA added the 3 pointer.

 

Ridiculous but hilarious.