ClutchFans Game Thread: Bobcats @ Rockets 2/2/2013

What about sample size or volume of shots? The more shots you jack up, the more you'll miss; and the less you jack up, the less you'll miss; and correct me if I'm wrong, Lin's shot attempts per game can't be an average that is more than, say, 12 can it?

So with that being said, I'm sure pgs like Jennings, Walker, Lawson, and Lillard have more shot attempts, thus they have more misses and makes. I'm not trying to disprove anything or make a point, I'd just like to shot attempts factored into the stats. Maybe you or someone can calculate that or factor that in.

 

So you believe momentum flow and confidence aren't affected by disruptions in play such as substitutions or stoppages? Have you been watching the Super Bowl? The Niners were dead until that power outage and now it's a new game. The stoppage killed the ravens momentum

 

LOL, bro, I am confused by what you said. What are you talking about? If the player only gets about 2-3 minutes play each game, then his stat probably is not real, then otherwise the stat holds for most cases. But sometimes, that stats lie, could not give you the whole picture of one player. So they are just for your reference. And that is why Morey has his secret stat.

 

The whole Rockets team was down in Jan. I guess that's partly why we went on that 7 game losing streak.

Harden FG%, 3PT%:
Dec: .463, .392
Jan: .429, .272

Team:
Dec: .473 (5th in NBA for the month), .370
Jan: .459 (13th), .356

As long as Lin keeps his FG% around 43%, that's slightly above NBA average. However, I would love it if he get higher to 47% considering most of his shots are closer to the rim.

You guys have to understand how tightly packed the shooting percentage of NBA guards are. The majority of NBA guards (about half) are within 41% and 45%. If Lin increases his FG% to 46%, he's in the top tier of all NBA guards.

In terms of TS%, Lin is .517 for the season. That's tied for 60th among 96 qualifying guards in the NBA.

TS% comparable guards:
50 - Ramon Sessions - .531
54 - Jrue Holiday - .525
57 - Kemba Walker - .522
60 - Lin - .517
62 - Westbrook - .516
63 - Rondo - .516
64 - Toney Douglas - .516

That's slightly below average.

As I said earlier, the stats I quoted were either monthly splits or season totals. Sample size isn't really an issue because all 96 guards qualify for the minutes leaderboard, meaning, they aren't end of bench type players.

I don't quite understand your second point but I just quoted True Shot Percentages for a bunch of players. That stat takes into account all type of shots.

All stats from Basket-Reference Play Index Finder feature.

 

I was just wondering how volume shooting affects a player's shooting %.

 

So, for example, Lin's TS, .517, is between Walker's, .522, and WB's, .516; however, WB definitely shoots a ton more, sometimes he makes above 70%, sometimes he.. well.. becomes Westbrick, like that game he had just this week where he shot 6 for 22.

So I guess my question is, how do you think Lin's TS%, FG%, and 3PT% would change if he shot, say 13 times per game, 17 per game, 20 times a game?

 

I think the number of free throws would go up, as he is more liable to drive, and that his shooting will come along faster. If he shoots more mid-range jumpers as he has been doing lately, his usage rate will go up and his stats will see a clear uptick. His percentages really depend on what kind of shots he will be taking. If he shoots more mid range j's and drives more to shoot rather than to pass, I think it will see an uptick.

 

Conversely, the more shots a player attempted, the more likely he will make up for his earlier cold shooting. For instance, sometimes a player shot poorly in the first 2 or 3 quarters. But eventually he got his shooting touch back in the 3rd or 4th quarter and shot himself out of his shooting slump. This is especially true for those players who are allowed to shoot a high number of fga.

Like in the 2 games against Portland, Lillard made up for his poor shooting in the first 3 quarters by shooting lights out in the 4th Q and/or overtime. If he was not given the green light to attempt more shots in the 4th Q & overtime, his final fg% for those 2 games would be much lower.

So you see, there are 2 sides to a coin.

 

sad? no. not at all. including you and me, everyone does that. we are human beings. it makes our society vivid and full of live. think about a society where everyone does same thing, says same thing, and believes same thing. i bet you are going to kill yourself.

 

Well, these percentage type stats aren't going to be affected too much by volume. Collectively, they're rate stats, meaning, if Lin is a 43% shooter, he's going to hit 43% of his shots regardless of whether he's shooting 10, 13, 17, or 20 times a game.

Lin's True Shot percentage might change if he changed his shot distribution - more threes, more FTs, less 2's. Anyway, if you really want to break down Lin's shooting, I'm going to recommend this page:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/linje01/shooting/2013/

You'll see that he's pretty effective at the Rim and between 16-22 feet. If he took more of those shots, his FG% will go up dramatically. But, you need to be careful with splits because you're inherently making data sizes smaller. If may seem that Lin is bad from 3-15 feet, but last year, he was a 52% shooter from 10-15 feet and 42% shooter from 3-9 feet.

Anyway, I think Lin is probably a career 44-45% shooter that might peak around 50% whenever he peaks. I say this because the majority of his shots (1/3 of them) are around the rim and just needs to figure out how to finish more of those shots.

 

do you know the margin of error? the sample size decides the margin. the bigger the sample size, the smaller error you may have. in our case, it does affect on player performance evaluated by ppl.

let's put it in a super simple way. let's say a player whose shooting % is 50 during his first 5 years service for a team where he is the #1 offense option. that means he is going to make half of attempts overall. the sample size should be very big and enough to believe that is what his average should be. during the next 5 year when he is with another team where he is not required to be any type of offense option. if he trys to shot once a game, his performance will look like very inconsistent. one game he may score 2 and other game he scores 0. well, ppl expect he score 1 every game due to his average %. unfortunately, in real life, there is no such thing you have to make one shot and miss the next one to get your average to 50%.