How is McHugh overpaid? Players like him are exactly the type of finds that this team needs. I'm particularly referring to a certain overpaid outfielder making 14 times what McHugh makes, and whose production could easily be replaced by any number of minor league scrubs.
I don't think it has "killed" baseball interest in the city But we do need to win again. Winning will cure everything, including any stigma of our fans. Obviously the losing has taken a toll on the casual baseball fan, but this is still a strong baseball town. Our fan size is not as big as it should be, given the size of Houston, but that goes as much to the ineptitude of our tv situation as it does the Astros being in a rebuilding mode. Houston is clearly a football city first and foremost, but we will be just as strong a fanbase, if not stronger, than other fanbases when we finally field a competitive team. Just look back at the picks from our glory days. We sell out and MMP gets crazy.
He's talking about Fowler and his "decent" OBP He seems to genuinely believe a .375 OBP has little value, so it pretty much tells us what we need to know about his baseball knowledge. I'm just gonna add him to my growing ignore list.
Odd, I thought Aoki was the least likely. Marisnick, Springer, Grossman, Santana, and possibly Fowler give the Astros a lot of OF options that would make money spent elsewhere more likely. Aoki isn't a big enough upgrade for me.
Among qualified CFs last year (17), Fowler finished 3rd in OB%, 4th in OPS+, 6th in oWAR. His issues are health (which is a legitimate concern) and defense, where it looks like he's simply miscast as a CF (he ranked dead-last in dWAR among CFers.) If he stays healthy (and is moved to L/RF), he's an absolute asset.
If he was moved to left, his offensive abilities (batting and base running) would rank 8th according to Fangraphs. I would expect his defense to be above average in left so I would think he would be a top 15 LF easy. Marisnick in center and Springer in right has the makings of a very strong defensive outfield once Springer adjusts to right.
How could Fowler's production be easily replaced by any scrub in the minors? Do you even follow the Astros or this is a just a case of a really bad attempt at sarcasm????
On the other hand, game 7 was the highest rated program in the city on Wednesday night. That "low" rating for world series might have less to do with the Astros killing baseball interest in this city than the fact that we're a giant diverse city with a huge population of immigrants and transplants, many of whom could care less about any world series matchup, much less SF vs. KC. A variety of people watching a variety of shows....
The only thing that is a negative on Fowler is that he will likely command a $10 million dollar salary next year (last year of arbitration), and he's a free agent in 2016. There needs to be a plan this off-season either to extend him or trade him... I don't see them keeping him if he wants to test free agency.
The Houston market was dead-last amongst the 56 "major" Nielson markets (again, this includes several non-MLB cities).... I understand we're a diverse city with a bunch of things to do other than watch baseball, but its not "that" diverse. To say this isn't a reflection of the lack of passion this city has in baseball right now (thanks to the Astros down years) is pretty much denial.
We've come a long way from that one magical day in 2006 (or was it '07?) when for an instant the Astros finally made it to .500 for their history. :-(
I don't know. I think a legit option would be to go year to year on fowler by making qualifying offers. Assuming about $7 million/win makes him almost exactly as value as the offer. It also has other benefits. If he gets injured or craps the bed, then you don't make the offer and you're not stuck in a long-term contract like you would be if you extended him (any extension takes him well into his 30s). On the other hand if he plays well and turns down your offer, you still get him in 2015 and also get a first round pick which combined is probably more valuable than trading him now. Or if he plays well and accepts the offer, great! I'd rather have a 30 yo fowler for 1/15 than something like 4/45.
not to mention that our record was significantly better when he played than when he didn't. I believe we were right around 500 when he played. However, as bad a post as Aceshighonpot was, we've got too much duplication in the outfield between fowler, marisnick, hoes, someone else I can't recall off the top of my head. All light bats that are more obp guys. That's fine for one position (of LF CF or RF), but we need some power production from the other guys. Plus, our left field (although the wall is a challenge) is farily shallow and easy to cover. We don't need a defensive stud there. It's somewhat wasted. Personally, I like Fowler over Marisnick. I think his chemistry meshes well with the team and he's still developing to an extent. I don't mind him in center either and haven't seen all the misplays that would have me call him mis-cast. I would be amendable to a contract in the 6-9 mil per year for Fowler. The shorter the term, the higher the $ value I'd go. I'd also try to get a deal done early to avoid him going to market where he'll command more.
Uhm, Springer?... They need a power bat in one of the corner OF spots, for sure - especially with lagging power at 1B/3B (although hopefully, Singleton can take a step in the right direction this year...)
Springer is not duplication. He's a freaking superstar in the making, thus I didn't add him above. He's providing one of the corner power spots and the other corner should have pop too. Not holding out hope on Singleton, but he shouldn't be out of chances for another couple years.
Marisnick has a plus plus glove in CF. He is light hitting, but his glove makes up for it. CF, SS and C are positions where teams trade hitting for defense. The problem with playing Marisnick in CF is that Fowler will be pushed into LF. Fowler might not want to stay with the Astros after next year, if he is not playing CF. The Astros have solid LF prospects in the minors (Tucker and Santana), so that might not be a bad thing.
2014-2015 MLB free agent power ranking 1. Jon Lester Lester has thrown over 200 innings for six out of the last seven seasons. Max Scherzer has done it only for the last two. Lester's adjusted ERA over the last seven seasons: 124, including a career-best 155 this season. Scherzer's adjusted ERA over the same time: 117. Both injury histories are mostly clean, save for a couple shoulder strains for both. The only reason to pick Scherzer is if you're really, really big on fielding-independent pitching stats. I'm a believer, but I remember my agnostic roots, too. Lester seems like the kind of pitcher who could survive with an 88-mph fastball; I'm not sure if that's true of Scherzer. I would rather eat a box of staples rather than have my team spend money for either of them, considering the contract they'll get, but if I'm picking one, it's Lester, even if just barely. 2. Max Scherzer It seems like this is the first offseason in a while with multiple ace-type pitchers available. Or, if you're a curmudgeon, the delicious canola-based spreads to the butter of a real ace. Scherzer and Jon Lester are Ace 1 and Ace 1a of the offseason, and you can flip them and flop them as you see fit. I almost went with Scherzer in the top spot because of the shiny trophy. It doesn't matter. They're both going to ignore my letters pleading for help with my student loans, even though they're totally rich. Scherzer turned down a six-year deal worth a reported $144 million, so that's not even the starting point for the negotiations. He's one of the best pitchers with major league experience to come on the market in years, but he's still 30, and there isn't a supercomputer in the world that could simulate what it would take for him to be worth $24 million in 2021, even though that's probably what he's in line for. If not more. 3. James Shields Oh, I'll bet whoever gave him the nickname "Big Game James" feels just awful now. Still, 6.12 ERA in the 2014 postseason aside, Shields is gonna be rich. His injury history at Baseball Prospectus has four entries: 2007: Lower leg contusion from a batted ball (no starts missed) 2007: Lower leg contusion from a batted ball (no starts missed) 2006: Right thigh cramp (one start missed) 2002: Shoulder surgery He's never missed a start in the majors, posting a career 111 ERA+, and there's a chance that his age (two years older than Scherzer and Lester) will make him a cheaper, more attractive option to those two. He's still 32 and a one-time All-Star, though. Zack Greinke is his top comparable player on Baseball-Reference.com, but his second is Shane Reynolds. That's just about the proper spectrum. 4. Hanley Ramirez With Derek Jeter gone, we have a new why-is-he-still-playing-shortstop champion. If Ramirez still insists on playing short wherever he goes, feel free to slide him one down on this list. Ramirez isn't the average-fueled monster who hit .345 with 20 homers in a half-season in 2013, but he's still an excellent power hitter in a free agent market that isn't flush with them. And, okay, technically he can still play up the middle. If Shin-Soo Choo, with a similar injury checkerboard and comparable production at a lower rung of the defensive ladder, can get seven years, $130 million, I'm starting to wonder if Hanley's contract will be the spit-take deal of the offseason. 5. Pablo Sandoval Through May 10, Sandoval was hitting .173/.250/.276. Even more amazing: He was actually worse with runners in scoring position during that stretch. He was the worst player in baseball, according to WAR, for a good three weeks. Since then: .308/.345/.452 with stellar defense, and that doesn't include his outstanding postseason (.366/.423/.465 in 17 games, with even better defense and a strangely patient approach). His raw numbers are hurt significantly by AT&T Park, and I could see him going berserk in Fenway or Chase Field. One of his most attractive qualities is his age: He's just 28, which means he still has another four or five years before the contract is a near-certain albatross. That's about two or three more years than the typical free agent, and teams pay attention to that stuff. 6. Yasmany Tomas Either Tomas is Jose Abreu or he's Dayan Viciedo or he's somewhere in between. He's young (24), has a skill that's in demand (dingers!), and makes teams think of the recent string of Cuban smash smash hits. Not only did players like Abreu, Yasiel Puig, and Yoenis Cespedes immediately pan out, but they were relative bargains for their teams (and continue to be). That snippet of recency bias might allow a couple of stubborn GMs to get bolder and bolder as the negotiations progress. If a team wants all-caps POWER, they're not going to get it from Ramirez or Sandoval. They might find it with Nelson Cruz and Victor Martinez, but they'll have to pay for their twilight years to get it. Tomas is the only player on the market with youth and power on his side, and he should get a monster contract. It will be exciting for the team that signs him, assuming that he's good. Which ... I dunno. Maybe? 7. Victor Martinez You've read this story before: 33-year-old DH gets hurt, 34-year-old DH comes back with reduced production, 35-year-old DH stumbles, 36-year-old DH limited to pinch-hitting duties, 37-year-old DH is out of the league. Martinez in his prime was a delight, but the story changes for no man. Until it does. Martinez had his very, very best season, setting career marks in on-base percentage, home runs, and stolen bases (three, vroooom). 8. Kenta Maeda The 27-year-old right hander might not be posted by the Hiroshima Carp, who finished in second place in the Central League in 2014, but if he is, there will be a bidding war. The notable Japanese pitching flops (Hideki Irabu, Kaz Ishii, Kei Igawa) and minor-to-major red flags when it came to their control. The pitchers who succeeded after jumping to the majors were the ones who didn't walk a lot of batters in the NPB (which isn't a walking league to begin with). Maeda doesn't excite people like Yu Darvish or Masahiro Tanaka did with raw stuff, but neither did Hisashi Iwakuma or Hiroki Kuroda, both of whom were absolute steals. Command and deception plays really, really, really well in the high-whiff era we're in. If Maeda is available, he'll probably get something close to Shields' contract. 9. Melky Cabrera In three out of the last four seasons, Melky was spectacular. In his dud of a year that was mixed in, he had a tumor in his spine. Which, if you're going to have an excuse ... He's more clomper than defender these days, but he can still play left field. He's a switch-hitter, and even if he's a little too average-dependent to be a sure bet, he's going to get something like the deal he thought he was going to get before he was suspended for performance-enhancing drugs. His agent is probably setting up an informational website now. 10. Nelson Cruz I spent most of my offseason yelling about what a disaster of a signing Cruz was going to be. Ha ha. Well, at least i wasn't totally wrong. Ha. Ahem. Cruz found his spirit ballpark: Camden Yards was absolutely perfect for him, even better than Arlington was. It helped Cruz set a career mark in home runs and led the American League with 40. He started off like an MVP candidate, deflated a bit back down to expectations, then puffed back up again. He just might get that gigantic deal that teams were unwilling to give him last offseason, and they'll give up a draft pick to do it. If the Orioles don't re-sign him, his new team will probably be disappointed if they're expecting a 40-homer hitter. But as a win-now alternative to paying Tomas nine figures, he'll do just fine. 11. Russell Martin 12. Aramis Ramirez 13. David Robertson 14. Andrew Miller 15. Ervin Santana 16. Adam LaRoche 17. Jason Hammel 18. Hiroki Kuroda 19. Chase Headley 20. Brandon McCarthy 21. Michael Morse 22. Jake Peavy 23. Asdrubal Cabrera 24. Francisco Liriano 25. Colby Rasmus 26. Nick Markakis 27. Stephen Drew 28. Kendrys Morales 29. Pat Neshek/Sergio Romo/Koji Uehara (tie) 30. Edinson Volquez 31. Michael Cuddyer 32. Chris Young (the tall one) 33. Norichika Aoki 34. Justin Masterson
I really would like to keep Fowler, but it has to be in LF. I know you would typically like more pop out of that position, but an OBP over .370 is just too good IMO. I would even offer him an extension. He can't stay in CF, that's Marisnick's job. If Fowler is simply unwilling to accept this he has to go. The gulf between them defensively is far too wide to overlook. As free agents hitters go, I really don't love any of them. They all have age concerns and/or likely to be overpaid relative to their actual value. I would either look trade, or possibly go with short but overpaid contracts. FA's aren't likely to come here cheap right now.
