That video of the final drive against Alabama... The most impressive part to me was Watson's demeanor. He was as calm and relaxed as anyone can possibly be, given the circumstances of a national title game, his last drive in college football, the intensity of the crowd, etc... If that doesnt faze him, then he's got the balls to be special. As far as his arm velocity, I do believe that it is totally overblown. If you look at that last drive with 19 seconds left, he throws a ball with solid velocity, given the last second pressure that caused him to throw the ball off balanced. He was able to still deliver a strike.
I didn't realize he was a QB coach before. So he got "demoted" to WR coach with the Giants before leaving to join the Texans? I still would prefer a more experienced or accomplished QB coach.
Interestingly, Schaub completed 67% of his throws in college; Watson 67.4% with a higher YPA (8.4 v 7.0). Schaub was "accurate" because Kubiak's system created high-percentage pass plays. Even his deep balls were specifically designed to be low-risk as they created one-on-one match-ups through exceptional playaction design/execution that took the safety out of the play.
I don't know that he was "demoted" - they changed offensive coordinators. Eli had a bad year under Ryan - when he threw 27 picks. But it's not like Eli was otherwise clean; he's had issues with turnovers. And went 30/14 in Ryan's last year with a 92.1 QB rating; second time he topped 30 TDs; third time to finish 90+ in QB rating. I honestly think scheme will be his greatest potential stumbling block. If BOB tries to fit another square peg into his Tom Brady-shaped hole, QB coach will be the least of our worries.
Meh, I think Schaub would be accurate in all systems. All systems are designed to get guys open in different ways. The other QBs he coached never had 67% completion percentage. Hard to really compare the college systems as Watson was in a spread offense.
I'm not sure Schaub ever fully recovered from his foot injury, which would explain, in part, why he broke down physcally. But as much as I agree with you - I think teams were also sitting on him; he had become predictable. Kubiak's offense isn't terribly complicated and once he lost either the ability or nerve to make throws across the middle - where Kubaik created such extreme throwing lanes - teams knew they could pick apart his "safe" outlet passes, which were becoming his primary read. There was a quote from Sherman confirming most of this after the Seattle debacle.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he needs a huge arm to be successful, I was simply responding to this: FN was calling out those who question Watson's arm (which usually means deep ball ability), and implied the final drive in the game would put that question to bed. I was simply pointing out that the deep ball detractors would not be swayed by a video where he in fact, does not throw a deep ball.
Just to be clear, almost every one of his pick sixes that year were on the out route to the sideline, not on any "outlet" dump off passes. It was the exact same route every time. And yes, teams were sitting on it and he was tipping it off. Probably tipping it because he had to work so hard to try to deliver the ball because of his injury. He did tell the Oakland coaches that his shoulder was tired when they got him. Throws to the sideline (not talking a running back running to the sideline, rather an actual wide receiver running that route where he turns right or left toward the sideline) require more arm than drag or slant or honestly even the deep ball. Why? Because it can't float. You can't just heave it up so you can't put all of your body weight into the throw, but if you lack velocity the ball will float out to the sideline and let defenses react. It's a very dangerous throw if the ball isn't going to be delivered quickly. Open space in front of the defender...
Osweiler had a higher completion % under Kubaik (62%) than he did BOB (59%). So, too, did Yates (61% to 49%). Rosenfels completed 49.5% of his passes prior to Kubiak; 66% with. Hell, even Joe Flacco went form 59% the previous three years to 63% with Kubiak. You can recall what offense Virginia ran in 2003, can you?
Seems like a demotion to me but even if not; a couple of years is not that much experience. Especially if one of those years wasn't that good. With no OC, he's going to spend a lot of time with the QBs. A lot of Deshaun's development is going to come from Ryan and O'Brien. Those two haven't necessarily proven to us that they are good at developing QBs. I would feel more comfortable someone whose expertise is with working with QBs and has had a lot of time devoted to it. I know O'Brien wouldn't do it, but I don't think Greg Knapp is currently with any teams. I was hoping they would give him a call after Godsey was let go. Oh well.
Kubiak's offense was centralized in the middle of the field, where he created layers of crossing receivers that forced DBs to pick one. The outlets were his "safe" routes a lot of the times. Here's the Sherman pick 6 - it's not an out route; it's a "safe" outlet. The intended receiver is planted. Sure it can; watch a Charger game. I mean, you're not wrong...... but timing can impact it as well.
Can you? That's exactly my point. We can't recall and compare. And all those guys also have lower completion percentages for their careers. And Flacco has been 64%+ (career high) the past two years without Kubiak. Schaub was just accurate.
I meant separately. Not together. Sean Ryan hasn't PROVEN that he is good. And neither has Bill O'Brien.
I didn't pretend to know what system Schaub played in college: "Hard to really compare the college systems as Watson was in a spread offense." Do you know Schaub didn't play in a spread offense? I'm not knocking Schaub; I've historically been one of his biggest defenders here. My point is that Kubiak's system is designed to create high-percentage passing plays. I would wager Watson would fare better in Kubiak's system than BOB's - or, at least, the version of BOB's he's trotted out here the past few years.
If we're talking about Matt Schaub as a college prospect, he was seen as a very smart player who was good at reading defenses and someone who had good arm strength with a quick and compact delivery who could make all the throws with "zip" due to striding into throws well. It was also noted that he was highly accurate when making these throws, especially in key downs and he rarely made any big mistakes. The knocks on him were that he was a conservative QB who didn't have much athleticism so scrambling to avoid sacks wasn't an option. He was also knocked a bit on leadership due to being "a quiet kid who isn't really a vocal leader" He was basically the exact opposite of Watson coming out of college except for the "clutch" part.
His second throw was a deep ball... perfectly thrown to the inside shoulder of his receiver, Williams. He threw that from his own 37 yard line to the opponents 40, which is pretty much considered a deep pass. So he in fact threw a deep ball.
Schaub completed 67% of his passes; same as Watson. If he had matched Watson's career attempts (1,207), he would have thrown 29 INTs. Watson threw 32. However, he only would have thrown 63 TDs to Watson's 90 and would've stilled trailed 5-26 in rushing TDs.
Completion % doesn't always show that you threw the ball accurately because accurately thrown passes can be dropped and inaccurately thrown passes can be caught. Scouts noted Schaub's accuracy as a positive and they knocked Watson's as a negative especially his deep ball accuracy. It is what it is, you can't really spin that.
