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New study: Medicare for All Act would cost $32 trillion+ over next ten years

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Os Trigonum, Jul 31, 2018.

  1. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    https://www.mercatus.org/publicatio...costs-national-single-payer-healthcare-system

    The Costs of a National Single-Payer Healthcare System
    Key materials

    The leading current Senate bill to establish single-payer health insurance in the United States is that of Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT). It’s called the Medicare for All Act, or M4A. The desirability and practicality of this kind of healthcare system will depend in large measure on cost—on what American taxpayers would have to pay for it.

    Charles Blahous puts a price on Sanders’s proposed legislation in “The Costs of a National Single-Payer Healthcare System.” These are his key findings.

    M4A Would Place Unprecedented Strain on the Federal Budget
    By conservative estimates, this legislation would have the following effects:

    • M4A would add approximately $32.6 trillion to federal budget commitments during the first 10 years of its implementation (2022–2031).
    • This projected increase in federal healthcare commitments would equal approximately 10.7 percent of GDP in 2022. This amount would rise to nearly 12.7 percent of GDP in 2031 and continue to rise thereafter.
    These estimates are conservative because they assume the legislation achieves its sponsors’ goals of dramatically reducing payments to health providers, in addition to substantially reducing drug prices and administrative costs.

    A doubling of all currently projected federal individual and corporate income tax collections would be insufficient to finance the added federal costs of the plan.

    M4A’s Dramatic Federal Cost Increase Arises from Several Factors
    • First and foremost, the federal government would become responsible for financing nearly all current national health spending, including individual private insurance and state spending.
    • M4A would increase federal health spending on the currently uninsured as well as those who now carry insurance by providing first-dollar coverage of their healthcare expenditures across the board, without deductibles or copayments.
    • M4A would expand the range of services covered by federal insurance (for example, dental, vision, and hearing benefits).
    • M4A would dramatically expand the demand for healthcare services, consistent with economics research findings that the more of an individual’s health costs are covered by insurance, the more services they tend to buy, irrespective of the services’ efficacy and value.
    We Do Not Know How Much M4A Would Disrupt the Availability and Quality of Health Services
    M4A would markedly increase the demand for healthcare services while simultaneously cutting payments to providers by more than 40 percent, reducing payments to levels that are lower on average than providers’ current costs of providing care. It cannot be known how much providers will react to these losses by reducing the availability of existing health services, the quality of such services, or both.
     
  2. krnxsnoopy

    krnxsnoopy Contributing Member

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    What they don't tell you is the alternative will be trillions more expensive. Medicare for all will actually be cheaper for the country.


    U.S. health care spending grew 4.3 percent in 2016, reaching $3.3 trillion or $10,348 per person. As a share of the nation's Gross Domestic Product, health spending accounted for 17.9 percent.

    https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statis...endData/NationalHealthAccountsHistorical.html
     
    #2 krnxsnoopy, Jul 31, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2018
  3. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    When we people learn that we already subsidize healthcare for just about everyone in this country? We spend a crap load at the government level (Medicare, Medicaid, Tricare, VA, non-military employee insurance, indigent care) and at the insurance level (my $20K+ policy that doesn't cover a damn thing beside my kids' shots and my wife's annual gyno visit, and that is only because of Obamacare).
     
  4. DreamShook

    DreamShook Member

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    Federal budget strain is reserved for the tax cuts for the rich not for normal people.
     
  5. Fantasma Negro

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    So roughly ten grand a year per citizen. Seems a bit high especially if you have kids.
     
  6. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    The cost goes on to the federal government, but comes off of household budgets. Sounds alright.

    I'm a little immune to the cost arguments after the GOP tax cuts. They tell me Democrats spend with abandon, they've demonstrated they spend with abandon, I'm going to be the little dutch boy with my finger in the dike? Please take a different angle. Maybe death panels. Those played well.
     
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  7. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    Its already 10,345/year. The problem is doctors and drug companies can charge whatever they want. It doesn't follow normal economic models. With things like balance billing and opacity of medical billing you can't really even tell what you are paying and what your insurance covers.
     
  8. conquistador#11

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    But we could build so many many many great walls with that money. Seawalls, underwater walls, walls over canada, walls over Hawaii, walls over puersho rico. Keep them all out!
    how many walls? around 380 beautiful walls.
     
  9. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Wall off chronically ill people and old people. Easy solution as they are the ones responsible. If we wall them off, the amount the Federal government spends on healthcare now would be more than enough to cover 100% of the costs of everyone left.
     
  10. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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    It's weird that the rest of the world can do it but the richest country in the world can't.
     
  11. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    This is a useful discussion and yes, all the numbers are alarming. So for comparison (as per @krnxsnoopy above), here is some CBO estimating from 2014. This is when Obamacare was really starting to work a bit, but now (and you all can debate the reasons, either b/c of 45's sabotage or its inherent flaws or both), we're pretty much back on the blue curve or worse.

    [​IMG]

    So a single payer system accounts for 2-3% more of the federal budget, according to this analysis, than business as usual. Though at current rates of increase (higher than this 2014 estimate), I would bet they're more similar.

    Single payer would just cut out a lot of household bankruptcies that are ongoing due to health emergencies. Hard to incorporate the effect of healthcare spending on household budgets in a plot of federal budget effects.
     
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  12. glynch

    glynch Contributing Member

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    What they don't tell you is the alternative will be trillions more expensive. Medicare for all will actually be cheaper for the country.

    What is this "collectivist" bullsiht about "country"; only libertarian "individualism" counts. If others do not have health care too bad for them.

    Generally the brainwashed folks waiting patiently for decades for tax cuts for billionaires to trickle down are the same folks who can spend $10.000 per year on family health insurance ( or in many cases rack up $10,000 in unpaid medical bills) then think they are better off than if they had to pay $5000 more in taxes to fund National Healthcare without the $10,000 insurance and co-pays..

    Also OMG if they had to wait a few days for elective surgery. Clearly it is better if necessary to have those desperately needing non-elective surgery to go without or to wait in lines sometimes years long. E.g hernia repairs, knee replacements etc-- just a little heads up for the comfortably unaware.

    Also the same folks are proud to proclaim that we are the greatest and richest and best country but too poor to afford what other developed countries have. Tough, to figure out. I know.
     
  13. dmoneybangbang

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    Agreed this isn’t expensive when you look at the big picture.

    I think Medicare is a joke when your poor lifestyle choices that add up over throughout your life are then generously subsidized. I realize old age is expensive healthcare wise, but obesity is a choice.
     
  14. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Well.... first I would point out that nice little tax cut that Trump decided to champion will cost the USA between 5-7 trillion dollars over the next decade.
    So that alone would be 20% of the healthcare cost for the entire USA.

    The last I looked the USA government took in over 2 trillion dollars a year in revenue.

    If we assume that the numbers as estimated are right, the cost for full medical for everyone in the USA would be about 320 billion dollars a year.

    The USA government on mandatory expenditures already spends 980 billion dollars a year on medicare & health.

    We also spend over 600 billion a year on the military.

    The cost of insurance right now, in many cases is paid for by the employer and the employee with high premiums.

    Just looking at the raw numbers, and the tax break costs........ it really isn't that far fetched at all to implement if you believe the 320 billion dollars a year is accurate. It would require an increase in taxes but not to the degree of what the cost is through employment coverage.

    Hell, we spend 600 billion dollars a year on the military, and another 160 billion on veteran benefits.
     
  15. Nook

    Nook Member

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    The richest country would rather spend close to a trillion dollars a year on the military and related costs.

    Our tax revenue is twice that of the second largest in the entire world.

    It all comes down to priorities.
     
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  16. Astrodome

    Astrodome Member
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    What is cost per household for unauthorized immigrants in this plan?
     
  17. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    So 3.2 trillion dollars a year or roughly right about what the government took in taxes last year (though they spent 4.1 trillion). I'm sure the people won't mind literally doubling their taxes in order to get crap quality healthcare with long waiting lines "for free" I'm sure literally doubling taxes won't have any negative effects on the economy.
     
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  18. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Still $0 as always....but they'll be able to receive full benefits I'm sure.
     
  19. Astrodome

    Astrodome Member
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    So open borders and free healthcare?

    Sounds like a win/win to me.
     
  20. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost be kind. be brave.
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    Tide is turning. Medicare for all is coming. We did it, CF!
     

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