Can the Democrats flip the Senate in 2020? I said no a few days ago, but recent polling has me reconsidering this take. They need to net 4 seats (which means they need to flip 5 probably after losing Alabama) for an outright majority of 51 seats and to net 3 if they have the presidency to have a 50-50 tie. Here are the most interesting ones: Arizona Incumbent Republican Martha McSally (appointed) faces Democratic challenger Mark Kelly Colorado Incumbent Republican Cory Gardner faces Democratic challenge (gov) John Hickenlooper Maine Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins faces Democratic challenger Sarah Gideon North Carolina Incumbent Republican Thom Tillis faces Democratic challenger Cal Cunnigham. The most recent Cook Political Report now rates all 3 of these as "toss up" races. The most recent Public Policy Poling has Democrats holding a 4 point lead in EVERY one of these races (or better) On top of these 4, Kentucky is surprisingly close (though I'd be stunned if Mitch loses that seat in a Trump year) and Georgia has two seats to defend while Kansas has an open seat. In a Democratic wave election it's definitely viable to see Kansas and 1 of the Georgia seats get poached as well. So what do you think? Will Democrats win Senate control?
RIP Doug Jones, but all seem winnable. I can tell you Cal Cunningham is very popular here in NC. Fingers crossed.
I put no because the hate for Trump hasn't offset the love for him so far. The diplomatic answer is... It depends on if the economy can look like it will recover from Corona mid year for people to continue to be hopeful of their green shoots job position and wage increases.
Add Montana to the list. And Kansas is fascinating because it looks like Kris Kobach is likely to win the GOP primary there. That led to a fairly mediocre Dem winning the governorship - not sure if Dems have recruited anyone good for the Senate, though. I don't think Trump-style politics plays well in Kansas, so who knows. But that said, I think it's a repeat of a few of the last cycles where Dems come really really close in a lot of places they have no business winning, but then ultimately lose. With Biden on the ticket and Bullock in the picture, I think getting to 50-50 is about ... 50-50.
Voted No. It's too large of a gap to overcome and the top of the ticket isn't inspiring people to get out and vote. There are obviously various events that can occur to change this so hopefully I'm wrong.
You can not count on young people, it would be a nice bonus if they show up in large numbers, but you got to get the older people to come out for you.
What gap? Voter tournout was high on Super Tuesday what metric are you using? https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/485994-democratic-turnout-surges-on-super-tuesday
I think so as well but I have a feeling a lot of people are gonna want to give a big FU to Trump in NOV and the wave could be historic. On the other hand there could be some overconfidence.
The Senate gap not voter turnout. I don't see a 3, 4, or more seat flip. Although, and again I hope to be wrong, my guess is we'll see similar turnout percentage to 2016 (a .8% increase over 2012 but 2.5% lower than 2008).
I've been trying to find polling on Ernst but haven't. I've been hearing she is vulnerable but haven't seen much data to back it up.
I'm courteously abstaining. There are too many factors at play including who is the Democrat nominee. Also consider in September of 2018 it looked like there was a very real possibility of Democrats taking the Senate but then the Kavanaugh hearings happened which brought a lot of Republicans home. Like the Presidential race I'm expecting a lot of twists and turns that will affect what happens. There might be multiple October surprises.
I'd honestly rather the Dems not take the Senate .... they can keep the House and take the presidency but I don't think it's healthy for either party to control all three ...
The Kavanaugh theory is a fairy tale pundit Republicans like to tell themselves to erase the shame of Trumpism, like there's some greater cause at stake 2018 was a blue wave, look at the house. it didn't translate in the Senate because it is undemocratic inherently and mostly had a terrible map. Fact of the matter is that Kavanaugh or no Kavanaugh, Clare Mccaskill was not going to hold Missouri. Donnelly wasn't holding Indiana. Let's say they hold Florida, at least that was close, and Beto whips Cruz despite the voter suppression machine. You're still 2 seats shy.
