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2020 Senate Watch: Is it in play for Democrats

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by justtxyank, Mar 6, 2020.

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Will Democrats win control of the Senate in 2020?

Poll closed Jun 4, 2020.
  1. Yes, they will control 51+ seats

    6 vote(s)
    19.4%
  2. 50-50 tie

    5 vote(s)
    16.1%
  3. No, they will fall short

    16 vote(s)
    51.6%
  4. I abstain, courteously

    4 vote(s)
    12.9%
  1. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    It will happen. Unfortunately many people over 60 will die.
     
  2. RayRay10

    RayRay10 Houstonian

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    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/492574-collins-approval-rating-drops-in-maine-poll

    Collins approval rating drops in Maine: poll

    Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) has seen a dip in her approval rating statewide, according to a new poll.

    The Maine senator continues to be a top target for Democrats in the fall.

    A survey released Monday by the Bangor Daily News found that just 37 percent of voters in the state approve of the job she has done as senator, compared with 52 percent who said they disapproved.

    That represents a drop of 5 percentage points for Collins's approval rating since a previous BDN/Critical Insights poll in the fall, when Collins was supported by 42 percent of voters in the state. Her approval rating had hovered around that level for much of 2019, rising only one point between the firm's polls in the spring and fall.

    Other political figures in the state fared better than Collins in the poll: Gov. Janet Mills (D) saw her approval rating rise from 47 points last fall to 60 points in the latest BDN/Critical Insights poll, while Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) remained popular with the support of 59 percent of voters.

    Maine residents now overwhelmingly expect the economy to worsen in the months ahead, according to the survey, with 57 percent of voters saying they expect the economy to be in worse shape next year, up from 32 percent in the fall.

    The BDN/Critical Insights poll surveyed 596 registered voters in Maine. Further polling information was not immediately available, and Critical Insights pollsters did not immediately return a request for comment.
     
  3. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    It will be interesting to see what path she will take. As she trails leading into the last few months. does she decide she to go all-out to support trump and hope to attract from his base? Or does she step up criticism and hope to attract independents and moderate Democrats? Right now her attempt to walk that fine line is not working...
     
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  4. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    Collins's cake has already been baked. Her constituents did not like her Kavanaugh and Impeachment votes.
     
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  5. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    52% of the US public wanted trump removed from office. I have a hard time seeing how that 52% would change their minds and vote for the Criminal in Chief.

    I have an easier time believing that voters on the fence with Trump, before CV and economic meltdown, will vote for Biden.
     
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  6. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    The NRSC has announced it has reserved a total of $33 million in TV ads for seven states. The bookings come weeks after the GOP super PAC Senate Leadership Fund and the Democratic group Senate Majority PAC made their first reservations. However, while both those groups will start going on the air just after Labor Day, the NRSC will start advertising in some contests as early as June.

    The NRSC's reservations by state, as well as the planned ad start dates, are below. All the seats are held by Republicans except for Michigan, which is represented by Democratic Sen. Gary Peters:

    • Arizona (Martha McSally): $5.7 million, starts June 1.
    • Colorado: (Cory Gardner): $6.4 million, starts July 8
    • Iowa: (Joni Ernst): $2.6 million, starts June 9
    • Maine: (Susan Collins): $5.1 million, starts June 3
    • Michigan: (Gary Peters): $3.1 million, starts June 1
    • Montana: (Steve Daines): $2.8 million, starts Sept. 8
    • North Carolina: (Thom Tillis): $7.3 million, starts July 3
     
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  7. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    McConnell and GOP frantically try to save the Senate as more seats come into play: report

    According to a report from Politico, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), as well as other Republican higher-ups, are fearful of losing their Senate majority in the November election with the Democrats about to put forward a strong slate of candidates backed by cash-rich warchests.

    As Politico’s James Arkin wrote, “Republicans started this election cycle as heavy favorites to keep their Senate majority, with a lineup of elections mostly in red-tinted states and GOP incumbents favored over a slate of relatively unknown and untested challengers. Now, nearly six months out from the election, Democrats are making them sweat.”

    Noting that Republicans are likely to maintain their majority, which currently stands at 53-47 in their favor, the party has more seats to defend this election cycle which has been volatile due to the Senate impeachment trial of President Donald Trump — who is proving to be a drag on some incumbents campaigns — and the coronavirus pandemic.

    According to McConnell ally Steven Law, who is president of the super PAC Senate Leadership Fund, Republicans have their work cut out for them.

    “The sense is that, no matter what else happens, we’ve got to hold the Senate majority. And it’s not a given. There’s just a broad front to defend, and it’s going to take a lot of resources and a lot of hard work to do it,” he admitted before adding it will be a “challenging election from top to bottom.”

    While the focus has been on four particularly embattled Republicans — Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Thom Tillis from North Carolina and Martha McSally in Arizona — other seats have now come into play in states that are normally thought to be GOP strongholds.

    “Republicans have offensive targets in Alabama and Michigan, two seats that could help them preserve their control of the chamber even if they lose seats elsewhere. But Democrats have also recruited strong challengers in a string of red states that could come into play, including Montana, Kansas and a special election in Georgia, helping them potentially expand their path back to the majority,” Arkin wrote.

    According to J.B. Poersch, president of Senate Majority PAC that supports the Democrats, “There seems to be common thinking in both parties that this is a map, and perhaps an environment, that favors Democrats. There’s been a consistency in the year-and-a-half of Democrats performing well in many of these battleground states, so we’re encouraged.”

    “Iowa has also emerged as one of the most important races, with both parties investing heavily in a state that would widen Democrats’ path to the majority. Trump is favored to carry Iowa again, but at least three and possibly all four of the congressional districts could be competitive, making it an unexpectedly expensive state as Sen. Joni Ernst runs for a second term,” the report notes. “Democrats are already spending big. Senate Majority PAC has spent $2.5 million on positive ads boosting Theresa Greenfield, a business-owner who has broad support to be the party’s nominee. Ernst still has a financial advantage, and Greenfield faces a June primary against a handful of candidates, including businessman Eddie Mauro, who is self-funding, and Mike Franken, a former three-star admiral from rural Iowa.”

    “Democrats have also expanded their opportunities in a handful of red states. Montana Gov. Steve Bullock’s Senate candidacy is forcing Republicans to spend to defend GOP Sen. Steve Daines, who likely would’ve coasted to reelection if Bullock had not run. And state Sen. Barbara Bollier, a physician and former Republican who switched parties in 2018, could be formidable in Kansas, where Republicans face a divisive and late primary without a clear frontrunner,” Arkin wrote before noting comments made by a spokesperson from the DSCC.

    “Democrats have put more states in play and have more paths to the majority with strong candidates, impressive campaign operations and a focus on what matters most to voters: affordable quality health care, lowering the cost of prescription drugs and economic security for working families — not corporate special interests,” explained Lauren Passalacqua.

    You can read more here.
     
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  8. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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  9. RayRay10

    RayRay10 Houstonian

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    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/maine-turned-on-susan-collins.html

    How Maine Turned on Susan Collins
    Inside the movement to topple the Republican senator.

    More at the link above
     
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  10. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    This is a great article. It's remarkable because it's not just people choosing their own reality because they're MAGA or whatever and using it to make their worldview but it's people with a worldview realizing over time that Collins is a fraud and describing it in depth.
     
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  11. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    I don't really understand Collins. All she had to do was be anything but an obvious supplicant to the president. Just represent the people of your state and vote your conscience accordingly. But everyone can see through the "I'm concerned" act, to the point that it became a meme. She has a very low opinion of her constituents' minds, I guess. Or the Orange King has something on her.
     
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  12. RayRay10

    RayRay10 Houstonian

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  13. T_Man

    T_Man Contributing Member

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    I love the Lincoln Project....

    T_Man
     
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  14. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    Joe Lieberman comes out in support of Susan Collins

     
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  15. swakid8

    swakid8 Member

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    ‘if you make PR a state, you gotta make Guam a state as well.
     
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  16. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    Then USVI, then American Samoa, then the Northern Marianas.

    It's a real slippery slope on that last one, if you catch my drift
     
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  17. swakid8

    swakid8 Member

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    Then you have to leave PR out of the mixed, edited for a correction of my statement.
     
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  18. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    #78 Carl Herrera, Sep 9, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2020
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  19. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    And this means what to you?
     
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  20. RayRay10

    RayRay10 Houstonian

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    Kind of disingenuous for Lieberman to say that he was a “lifelong” Democrat when he left the party about 15 years ago.
     

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