You just proved how rare it is. You could only find 9 players with this kind of improvement, one of which shouldn’t even be on the list, Devin Booker who got way less efficient post asb, so 8. Then out of the 8 only ONE other player was as bad as Jalen measured by advanced stats and was a negative on winshare and -5 bpm, and that happens to be Jalen’s top comp Zach Lavine. So besides this one player is there any other examples of someone that was that bad making such a leap? I am ecstatic about it, so no point in arguing at this point, but just saying, there was reason for our skepticism at the time.
You DO realize that those 9 players were from the past 10 drafts/years alone right? It's not that I could "only find 9 players"; it's that it takes a pretty long time to actually pull the data because it's not readily downloadable. The fact that I can just go back 10 years and find almost an example every year shows that it's NOT that rare. In fact, what Jalen's doing is on par with most rookie shooting guards who were taken in the lottery. That was the point. It was never to discredit or "trivialize" what he's done since February; it was to simply say that there were some on here that pushed the panic button way too damn early back in October/November just to satisfy their own ego. Given time, Jalen would have turned the corner because that's what you should expect from one of the highly touted prospects during last year's draft.
The past 10 drafts, so out of the last 600 players you could find ONE as measured by winshare and bpm that was as bad as Jalen psb that became good?
You're not getting it: why would I look at the entire draft when we're trying to compare players as close to Jalen as possible? Why would I pull data on centers and power forwards to compare to Jalen? Why would I pluck data from a 2nd round shooting guard who plays 50 games but only spends 10 minutes a night on the court? Do you even know what comparative analysis is?
And then as far as BPM and win shares I also put this disclaimer in the post: I only took the players from the first table who started their rookie year as a 19 year old but, again, what Jalen's producing in his rookie season is in line with other shooting guard rookies who were taken in the lottery. This also doesn't include the fact that Green still has 30 more games to go to improve on stats like BPM. That's crucial because, by the end of the season, whose to say those metrics wouldn't improve?
Ok. So out of 100 top 10 picks the past 10 drafts you found…zero that was as bad as Jalen pre allstar break? Lavine was a 13th pick.
Jalen Green haters just grasping at straws at this point to try and explain away their stupidity just give it up…u were exposed, it’s ok
This Jalen Green hater thought from day 1 that he could be Lavine or Bradley Beal, look up the receipts. I just believed that Mobley’s comp is better than that, and that’s still obviously true now. At no point was I complaining when Mobley was putting up big numbers at the start of the season. It was when Jalen went 0-11 or whatever and looked like he wouldn’t even live up to Lavine or Beal comps that made me crack. But now he’s back on track. I’ll still take Mobley over Green 10 times out of 10. But it’s not about getting the draft “right”, you will never get it right all the time and I don’t begrudge that, as long as Jalen lives up to his potential like he seems to be now, then it wasn’t a wasted pick which was the fear with how he started so slow.
Jalen Green haters can try and dress up their vitriol all they want, but we know what went down and there will be no gaslighting here How are u gonna attack somebody at every opportunity giggling at his struggles like some school girls in the back, and then when we starts playing well, act like it’s all good? Such fake behavior
You're misunderstanding two things: The point is that there are players that have had drastic leap from pre-all start to post all-star break. You can argue that at this point in time, Green appears to have the biggest jump, but that jump is not big enough to warrant any kind of surprise. It would be like saying a player going from 20ppg to 30ppg is somehow far more impressive and surprising than a player going from 20ppg to 28ppg. Context. Frankly, Green is not playing in an ideal situation in comparison to many other rookies. He was drafted primarily as a player with scoring potential, and he is playing with 3 starters that like to shoot (Wood, KPJ and Gordon). It also doesn't help that he has no PG to guide him through, and he has an actual rookie coach to work him through his troubles. Worse of all, there are two starters on this team that have openly quit at least once when things weren't going their way. If you want to bring up rookies throughout NBA history placed in as tough a spot as Green, you would struggle to find one equally as bad. So yes, whilst Green is probably (currently) on the higher end even among those players with major leaps, his situation is also on the extreme end in terms of least ideal situation for a rookie to thrive in.
I live in a reality where the 13th pick in the NBA draft is considered a LOTTERY pick. I also can't control where Lavine gets selected if 7 out of the 12 teams before him decided to take forwards in the summer of 2014. As for being "as bad as Jalen", stats like BPM and Win Shares and Net Ratings are something useful but you have to take it with a grain of salt and, for rookies, you better chug the entire bottle. As with most stats, there's context to it. You and everyone else have every right to look at a BPM and say "man Jalen Green sucks" or use some other superlatives to describe his play relative to said stat. For me, it's like: -Okay it shows his impact on and off the court is bad...but why is it bad? Because the BPM is: " BPM incorporates box score performance, team performance and player position to rate how well a player performed above league average per 100 possessions. BPM is essentially the same statistic as VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) but the latter accounts for playing time." Like it's a great stat to use for veterans because they've had years/playing time/experience to eliminate a lot of the variables/noise that a rookie would experience. Jalen's also playing a position where, traditionally, a point guard is needed in order to put him in the best position possible to score. He's never going to be able to do double duty like a Doncic or Harden or Trae Young or whatever but that's not why he was drafted; he was drafted because he had shown scoring potential. The kid AND the team had it rough at the beginning of the year because we not only had a rookie start at shooting guard playing 30 minutes a night right off the bat, he now has to try to find his way with a starting point guard who's playing the position for the first time professionally. This doesn't even get into the fact that he has a starting PF who can't set a proper pick but is also a blackhole on offense and a head coach that just engineered a 20 game losing streak the year prior. These things WILL impact stats like BPM. I'm not telling anyone to NOT use BPM or Net Rating or WAR ...feel free to use it to your heart's content but you have to know what you're getting into if you're going to use that for players in their rookie seasons. Don't believe me? I already ran the data: https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/...ience-is-coming.313701/page-246#post-13993579
It's not only all good; it's "ridiculously rare" because some people really don't watch the game of basketball unless it's the Rockets.
with all due respect sir steddi, this post will be perfect if you include some JCDenton GOAT level graphs
LOL I actually have quite an extensive list already. Truth be told I don't have some of these "anti-cultists" on ignore because they do sometime have very good insightful posts. I just don't know why Jalen got them hot and bothered. Maybe they wanted Mobley or some other rookie? Maybe they expected GOAT level production from Jalen right out of the gate? Maybe they sorely wanted to be right about Jalen because it satiates their need to be validated? I don't know.
