FINAL day of the CYBER MONDAY SALE! Check out shop.clutchfans.net for gift ideas for the Houston sports fan!
  1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

The incredible transformation of Justin Brooks Verlander

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Yordan The Great, Jul 9, 2022.

  1. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2001
    Messages:
    28,493
    Likes Received:
    4,399
    He's going to end this season with around 245 wins, needing 55 more. One more season at his current level would put him at about 35 short. Which means 3 seasons averaging 12 wins would get him there. He'd be 43 at that point.
     
    Yordan The Great likes this.
  2. Marshall Bryant

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2018
    Messages:
    5,152
    Likes Received:
    2,481
    I want him to try as an ASTRO. I really don't care if it makes sense financially and I never say that.
     
  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    8,734
    Likes Received:
    9,704
    If he gets to 280 then he will get to 300. There will always be a team willing to give him a contract and run him out there if he is willing to go. So after this season he needs 2 more good years, after which the league will let him hang on even if he falls apart.
     
    Wulaw Horn and rockbox like this.
  4. Yordan The Great

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2019
    Messages:
    1,841
    Likes Received:
    2,923
    Verlander is right at 1 month shy of 3 full seasons with the Astros. His stats:

    92 Starts
    56-18 2.34 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 6 H/9 11.5 K/9

    His best 3 year stint of his career with Detroit:

    100 Starts
    59-22 2.79 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 7 H/9, 8.9 K/9

    Pretty damn incredible what we are witnessing.
     
  5. PhiSlammaJamma

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 1999
    Messages:
    27,607
    Likes Received:
    6,014
    Another interesting thing is that at quick glance Verlander does not appear to have autographed hardly any baseball cards after 2007. This is rare. He seems to have barely signed anything. If he can move his baseball image in the last 5 years, there is a lot of value sitting there. Most of those auto's were sticker autos, so if collectors can find on card certified auto's they should probably buy in this year at relatively low prices. They have a good chance at going through the roof.
     
  6. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2018
    Messages:
    2,410
    Likes Received:
    2,086
    He says he’s playing until he’s 45. I can’t imagine it making sense to bet against him getting 300 wins unless the bet is- I think his arm is going to fall off.
     
  7. Yordan The Great

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2019
    Messages:
    1,841
    Likes Received:
    2,923
    This is the first I hear of this. When did he say that?
     
  8. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 1999
    Messages:
    36,094
    Likes Received:
    26,197
    He's been saying it since 2018
     
  9. Yordan The Great

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2019
    Messages:
    1,841
    Likes Received:
    2,923
    It's down to McClanahan and JV. McClanahan's K rate is impossible to ignore, that's JV's biggest obstacle. Need to widen the disparity in W-L record and JV probably needs to edge him out in ERA. Cease has a 1.19 WHIP, which tells me he's due to have a bit of a letdown the rest of the season. Nobody should sport an ERA of 2.03 with a 1.19 WHIP. Last year the same dominating strikeout rate above 12 per 9, a WHIP slightly higher at 1.25 but he had a 3.91 ERA. A bit of smoke and mirrors going on here this season for Cease.
     
    HTown2017Champs likes this.
  10. Yordan The Great

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2019
    Messages:
    1,841
    Likes Received:
    2,923
    So something I noticed is the number of innings it's taken for JV to get to his win total and how it appears to be at a rate lower than anyone else in history, or at least very close to the best.

    Well my perception of the situation was indeed correct:

    Only Christy Mathewson has a better W:IP ratio than Justin Verlander.

    Here are some notable pitchers:

    Christy Mathewson 0.078
    Justin Verlander 0.077
    Randy Johnson 0.073
    Roger Clemens 0.072
    Grover Alexander 0.072
    Greg Maddux 0.071
    Walter Johnson 0.071
    Cy Young 0.069
    Warren Spahn 0.069
    Tom Glavine 0.069

    Now what is really mind-blowing is that metric as an Astro comes in at an astounding rate of 0.095, which obviously blows away the list I just presented.

    JV seems poised to be the first pitcher ever to reach 0.080 W/IP this late in their careers, if he can keep up this Astros win rate for another 2 seasons.
     
    #90 Yordan The Great, Jul 30, 2022
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2022
    vince likes this.
  11. Yordan The Great

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2019
    Messages:
    1,841
    Likes Received:
    2,923
    Verlander clear leader for Cy Young
    15-3 1.73 ERA 0.85 WHIP, 127K

    McClanahan
    10-5 2.24 ERA 0.83 WHIP, 162K

    McClanahan appears to be hitting a wall in his first full season in the majors.

    Cease is arguably #2 in this race now
    12-4 1.98 ERA 1.16 WHIP, 166K
     
    #91 Yordan The Great, Aug 8, 2022
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2022
  12. lnchan

    lnchan Sugar Land Leonard
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    6,003
    Likes Received:
    7,972
  13. Major

    Major Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 1999
    Messages:
    39,899
    Likes Received:
    13,395
    jiggyfly and Buck Turgidson like this.
  14. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2008
    Messages:
    98,112
    Likes Received:
    127,300


    At age 39, after nearly two years off the field, Justin Verlander has learned to be a better teammate.

    A member of the Astros who asked not to be identified, lest anyone draw the conclusion he did not think Verlander was a good teammate in the past, said the right-handed ace is more engaged in the clubhouse environment than he was prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2020. More accessible. More one of the guys. More part of the whole.

    When I asked Verlander his reaction to that assessment, he guessed, with a smile, that catcher Martín Maldonado was the person who talked about his seeming transformation. It wasn’t Maldonado, I said. But then I thought, “Who would have a better perception of a starting pitcher than his catcher?”

    “Those two years he was out, he (learned) how much he missed it, how difficult it is to be away from the game,” said Maldonado, who has spent much of the past five seasons with the Astros. “Overall, he’s a totally different guy from ’18-’19.”

    “He’s way better,” Maldonado said. “I don’t think he was a bad person in the past. But I think he’s more open to helping young guys, helping the team, having team dinners, constant communication. I think (he’s different) in a big way, a good way.”



    Verlander, after undergoing Tommy John surgery on Sept. 30, 2020, figured to be even lonelier than most who go through the painstaking rehabilitation. The COVID-19 pandemic prompted Major League Baseball and other professional sports leagues to adopt strict restrictions on contact between members of an organization. Verlander remembers the Astros telling him, “You’re not allowed anywhere near us. You’ve got to figure it out on your own.”

    “That ended up being a blessing in disguise,” Verlander said.



    Verlander was in Italy, talking by phone with Astros owner Jim Crane in the final hours before the start of the owners’ lockout on Dec. 1. Crane had one last request as the two scrambled to complete Verlander’s free-agent contract before the lockout shut down the sport.

    “Justin,” he said, “I would like some innings for that player option to kick in.”

    Verlander already had agreed to a $25 million salary for 2022. The player option for 2023, effectively giving Verlander the ability to opt out and re-enter the free-agent market, was worth another $25 million.

    “I’m always somebody who tries to earn my keep,” Verlander said. “If I was an owner, and I’m going out on a limb here for a 39-year-old Tommy John guy for one year, if I’m going to give him a player option, I want to make sure he’s healthy. And in my mind, if I don’t throw 130 innings, I don’t think I’m worth the 25 (million) that they gave me for this season, no matter how I pitch.

    “It wasn’t even a negotiation. I said, ‘That’s a very fair ask. Done.’”

    Verlander reached 130 innings, the threshold for his player option, on Aug. 4. His performance thus far has been worth $34 million according to Fangraphs’ dollars metric, which is WAR converted to a dollar scale based on what a player would earn in free agency. Project that out to a full season, and the figure would be $44.8 million.

    The Mets last offseason signed Max Scherzer to a free-agent contract with a record average salary of $43.3 million for his ages 37, 38 and 39 seasons. Verlander, who turns 40 on Feb. 20, might not surpass Scherzer’s AAV if he declines his player option. But if he opts out, he might be as compelling a story in the offseason as he has been during the regular season.

    “I haven’t made that decision yet,” Verlander said. “Look, I have to finish out the season. I have to finish healthy. Obviously, if things continue to go the way they are and knock on wood, everything goes the way I think everybody would hope, than I would probably opt out. I’ve pitched pretty damn well.”
     
    TracywtFacy and Buck Turgidson like this.
  15. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2002
    Messages:
    71,521
    Likes Received:
    65,574
    Major, TracywtFacy and jiggyfly like this.
  16. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2002
    Messages:
    71,521
    Likes Received:
    65,574
  17. Yordan The Great

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2019
    Messages:
    1,841
    Likes Received:
    2,923
    97 Starts
    59-18 2.30 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 6 H/9, 11.3 K/9
     
  18. Yordan The Great

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2019
    Messages:
    1,841
    Likes Received:
    2,923
    Does anyone think we could have negotiated a team option for 2023 or just a straight up 2 year guaranteed contract without the player option?

    I think we offer him a 3 year 90 million deal in the off season. I'm convinced we will see very little decline through the age of 42.
     
  19. RunninRaven

    RunninRaven Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2000
    Messages:
    14,525
    Likes Received:
    1,715
    I'm sure they could have, but honestly who thought he would be anywhere near this good? Verlander might have had an idea so he might not have gone for the team option, but he probably would have entertained the straight 2 year deal, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Astros wouldn't do that after the last two seasons.
     
  20. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2000
    Messages:
    20,102
    Likes Received:
    8,305
    The only way he accepts a 3 year 90 million is if it is front loaded and he has an opt out. He's going to get over 35 million next year. I'm guessing it will be closer to 40 million.
     
    Wulaw Horn likes this.

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now