Model suggests 10x actual cases, so we it might be more about that than vaccination at this point. 36% estimated to have been infected in the US. ND leads with 52%. Also, I think we are getting over the Xmas/NY bump. Actual Coronavirus Infections Far Higher Than Confirmed Cases, Model Shows : Shots - Health News : NPR
I'd rather other people that are more succeptible to the virus get the vaccine before me. I'd rather know I have it if there's any chance I could transmit it to someone that is sick still. The vaccine was rushed, I'm a bit concerned about that. I have a very rare hemoglobin trait that obviously hasn't been researched with the virus or vaccine. The virus definitely affects hemoglobin. I've been exposed to the virus before, with no concern from my workplace. I may have antibodies. I'm concerned about potential delayed side effects that haven't been fleshed out. Initially, I didn't want to be a part of what is essentially still a clinical trial. There are many reasons. Also, the implementation has been horrible. We should be testing healthcare workers for antibodies before giving them the vaccine, for starters. Oh, but wait, the antibody tests aren't totally reliable? We don't know how long the vaccine will provide "immunity" for, or if it's longer than the antibodies do?.... Yeah...
The mRNA vaccines by nature should almost definitely reduce transmission - the whole underlying concept of them is to make the virus unable to bind to cells and unable to reproduce, so by definition, the viral load should drop dramatically, making it way harder to transmit. As you said, there's no official "proof" of it yet, so science probably can't make the claim. And, since the vaccine is not widely available, there's an element of March's "you don't need masks" stuff here too. The health sector doesn't want people cutting in line. And they don't want people who have been vaccinated to just stop wearing masks and such because it's going to encourage everyone else to do the same and cause more problems. So from a societal perspective, the best thing is to be conservative and say "we're not sure if it can transmit" so people will keep taking proper precautions and be willing to wait their turn. I suspect in April or May when vaccine is widely available, we will learn that it's extremely effective in stopping transmission (at least Pfizer and Moderna - I don't know how the others work).
This seems dumb (not you, but the model). It suggests that total real cases are 5x the known cases. We have 27.5MM confirmed cases in the US so the model suggests that we really had 137MM out of a population of 330MM? That seems like nonsense to me. Antibodies don't show anything like this at all. We're absolutely uncounting - but it's doubtful that its by a factor of 5x or even 2x.
I’m sure actual cases are far higher and that has been the presumption since the early days. Presuming that the rate of testing isn’t changing then a decline in detected cases would still represent an actual decline in the amount of infection.
as contagious as this **** is, and w 40% asymptomatic, and w antibody tests not testing for T-cell memory of viral infection, the model (from, you know, experts instead of me or you), may be close to right. my household is antibody negative, yet our doctor is fairly sure we had it in March, based on symptoms.
Pretty sure my household was positive in March as well. My son was very symptomatic. He was the only one tested. He tested negative. Was two at the time and was one of the first to be tested in our county. We assume the test wasn't performed as well as it could have been, through no one's fault. I also watched a doctor refuse to test two very symptomatic patients. Their subsequent exposure of about eight employees without proper PPE was not documented. None of the employees, including myself, were tested. Once they tested positive, a week later, and via another doctor's ordering of the test, a contracted employee was finally notified, only because I said something to the proper person. That contracted employee was required by law to be notified. So, I agree that it's been undercounted, by at least two times, if not five.
Except other experts completely disagree and think its ludicrous. It seems like every couple of months, some study with crazy theoretical estimates come out" and people use them to say "hey, maybe we're a lot closer to herd immunity than we thought" ... and then there's a mass explosion of cases. We saw it with both Sweden and NYC over the summer, only to see them be completely wrong a few months later. This latest study (not even peer reviewed), like the previous ones, is a based on a mathematical model. We've seen mathematical models all over the place throughout this last year and they almost all turn out to be wrong (as expected because there are lots of different models with lots of different assumptions and they can't all be right). Why we keep latching onto them to believe when we have actual data that shows completely different info is beyond me. It's like picking one of 50 projected hurricane paths and treating it like fact.
Not suggesting otherwise. It definitely looks like a sharp decline in cases. We also saw a sharp decline in cases after what looks like a ThxG bump. I wonder if that's about to get reversed. Looks like the UK variant is spreading fast in the US. Study: U.K. coronavirus variant is doubling in U.S. every 10 days (yahoo.com)
Got sick (PCR tested) in July. Had no antibodies as of January. Finally was convinced to get the vaccine two weeks ago. No issues thus far (or even since July).
I don't know what it is now, but antibodies test was a mess and not very reliable. This model put it at 26.9% as of 1/24, but the range is huge - from 18% to 41%. So, yes, it's "all over the map". COVID-19 Projections | United States | US Infection Estimates (covid19-projections.com) You might also be interested in this - Path to herd immunity (projecting 60% immunity ~mid-May, reaching a peak of ~70% by July and staying there throughout 2021)- Path to Herd Immunity - COVID-19 Vaccine Projections | COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning (covid19-projections.com)
Surprised this hasn't been posted yet, pretty encouraging news on the timeline: Gottlieb has been quite good throughout this. IMO, the big question is whether Texas will be one of the initial states to "deregulate" and take the inevitable PR backlash when it happens. The case for yes, they were one of the first states to transition to 1B (everyone 65+, plus 16+ with conditions). The case for no, Texas officials have consistently played the age card much more aggressively than other states, i.e. you shouldn't be as worried if you're younger. We'll see. Anecdotally, I've heard stories that volunteers at the mass-vacc sites here are being offered leftover doses at the end of their shifts. I've inquired with HHD, because I'd do it in a heartbeat, but haven't heard back. I'm also wondering if we'll hear more "leftover" opportunities around town in a few days, now that retail pharmacies are going to be in the game...
Don't know what part of town you're in, but the drive through vaccine site at Walter Hall Park is giving shots to their volunteers. According to my mom, at least. She is a former RN and signed up to give the doses so I don't know if it's only shot-giving volunteers who get the vaccine or if everyone does. But just wanted to share that info - worth looking into.
Got my 2nd dose of Moderna yesterday. Achy as a mofo. I definitely recommend taking the day after off of work. Also does not help that my kids can't comprehend the idea that daddy isn't a jungle gym.
It was my understanding that most volunteers were offered the vaccine anyways as they are now "medical" personnel.
Interesting. That said, from what limited research I've done, it seems like most sites primarily want volunteers with some sort of medical background. (Which is understandable.) For example, even the "non-medical" volunteer link for League City asks for various medical affiliations. There's a few roles that can be filled with general folks, but doesn't seem like too many. Still worth a shot, though! What I'm also curious to see is whether the retail pharmacies (i.e. CVS) start doing a phone list of nearby folks who can come in on short notice, if leftovers are available. There's lots of stories about "vaccine chasers" who hover around close to closing time, but that obviously seems sub-optimal for stores to have randos just taking up space and not buying anything during a pandemic. So I would think the logical move is to take down phone numbers and have a list for those scenarios. We'll see in a few days, seems like this is the week on the retail front.
Finally got myself and family scheduled through WalMart of all places. Feel a bit of relief, finally.
Long but another good video looking at Manaus Brazil which had high infection rates and experienced another outbreak recently about 7-8 months later after their major infection wave. He gets into the coevolution of traits within different strains of the virus. He also got into the issue of why herd immunity effects have not seemed to have been stable. Mainly he was stating that the variants seem to indicate that vaccination should work in the long run and that there should be a limited number of successful strains that should be able to be vaccinated against. I always watch him on 1.5x speed.
Update: It worked! Got Dose 1 of Pfizer today by helping direct drive-through traffic at Smart Financial Center in Sugar Land. Organization I volunteered through was the Homeland Preparedness Project.
