I would place Simmons high on my list as well. It may be better to wait ona PF later this season (S & T with an expiring contract).
Well there really are not too many teams that can offer him more than the MLE. Boston, Cleveland, Seattle, Bobcats, Atlanta, and I believe the Clippers are really the only teams that could offer him more than the MLE. Out of those teams only the Celtics seem to be interested in offering Walker a contract. The Clippers are already are set at PF (Brand), Seattle has its own free agents and already has some young PFs, Cleveland is going after bigger fish (Allen, SAR, Redd), Bobcats have Okafor and May, and Atlanta is Atlanta and there is no way he goes back there. So really the only team that I think will actually outbid the Rockets for Walker's services is Boston. If he wants to play for a true contender then he will take a little less money and come here. If he is ok playing for a mediocre team for the rest of his career then he will go to Boston.
We will have lots of cap room next summer, thanks to Spoon and Baker's expiring contracts. Is there some way to pay a guy like Marshall the MLE this year, then give him a major raise in 2006? if so, this would make Houston a far more attractive destination for free agents.
Walker's like a 6'8" version of Steve Francis. Good scorer, rebounder, playmaker but doesn't play defense and makes questionable decisions. I'm suprised some of you really want him that much. I agree with this team needs to pick up some pieces who will be assets down the road, but if you pay to much for him, he's eventually going to be thirty with a lot wear on the tires and he won't be much of an asset. Plus I wonder how much he will get along with JVG. Also with McGrady and James, the Rockets don't need his playmaking ability. I guarantee you guys, you will be complaining about his "playmaking" 10 games into the season. I would like the Rockets to look at Udonis (sp) Hasleem. I don't know if he's restricted or not but he seems to give the Rockets exactly what they need. Rebounder who can hit a 10-15 ft. jumper. Nothing more, nothing less.
Yes, he is restricted. The interesting thing is they drafted Simien, so it looks as if they are not going to go all out in keeping him. Or so it seems anyway.
What about Theo Ratliff for a couple of years,mixed in with Walker?Unloading Howard,and running w/these two might be practical if Theo has enough left.
I think walker would know what hes getting into if he is taking a paycut to play for a championship. All the other teams he played for never had players really demanding double teams. yao and mcgrady usually demand doubles and that will make walkers points easier. Hopefully that will allow him to have a better FG%. He does know how to pass so i believe that it will allow yao to get the ball at the same time. Yes he is an impact player. I believe that with his range Yao will not be trying to outplay a center and powerforward inside. I hope and pray that walker will make even a lil impact. The kinda impact that rasheed wallace did for the pistons. i never knew rasheed can play the way he played years ago in portland again. If he gives us half of what rasheed gave the pistons we will be ok. Juwon can always come off the bench to restore order if walker breaks away from his leash! haha j/k. He will change things for us either way. I believe swift will not allow yao the space he needs to operate. Im just thinking about how horry allowed shaq to operate in LA and olajuwon to operate in H town. I hope swift wont be a glorified cato with barely any jumper!
I think Walker shoots a MUCH higher percentage on the Rockets due to teams concentrating so much on Yao and Tmac. Walker would be a nice addition for 3 or 4 years. DD
It seems to me that the contracts expiring in the summer of '06 (Spoon, Baker, Wesley) will leave us about $7 million under the new cap (estimated to be about $45m), even if we decide to max out Yao that year instead of just qualifying him. Maybe my salary info is wrong. Is there a good site for this kind of detailed salary stuff? As for the max allowable raise during a contract, that is why I did not mention it. I want us to be creative. For example, can we get someone to sign for the MLE for one year, then give him a bigger contract in '06? Come on guys, put on your thinking caps. Would Swift (for the sake of argument) accept MLE + $7m + $8m + $8m? I think he would.
What the rockets need from the 4: 1) be a defensive presence, 2) be a monster rebounder, 3) give Yao space, 4) get tmac and yao the ball. I don't think we can get the PF we're looking for in this free agency, even though it is a very talented crop of fowards. Why do so many people want Antoine Walker now when it's obvious that his skills are completely focused on offense? He's gonna give Yao space and rebound, but he's not going to defend and you know he's not going to give up the ball. Yes his offense would be nice, but i believe that any 4 we bring in will be underutilized offensively. If we have a third option, it will be one of the guards. Cuttino mobley, anyone? Let's face it, JVG is a genius on defense yet is not the most creative coach on offense. And that's putting it lightly. That said, if Walker takes our offer for the MLE well at least he wouldn't be horrible backup for Juwan Howard.
In the RealGM player rankings, (I'm not saying these are the gospel, just interesting to rank the players we are looking at.) here's where our players and others at PF rank (including a few other interesting players) ... Rnk Player Tm GM Pts Rebs Asst Blk St TO LW Diff 1 K. Garnett MIN 81 22.3 13.5 5.7 1.4 1.5 2.7 1 +0 3 D. Nowitzki DAL 76 26.3 9.8 3.0 1.6 1.3 2.3 3 +0 5 A. Stoudemire PHO 79 25.9 8.9 1.6 1.6 1.0 2.4 4 -1 6 T. Duncan SAS 65 20.6 11.2 2.7 2.6 0.7 1.9 5 -1 7 S. Marion PHO 80 19.6 11.4 1.9 1.5 2.0 1.6 8 +1 <b>9 T. McGrady HOU 78 25.7 6.2 5.7 0.7 1.7 2.6 9 +0 </b> 14 B. Miller SAC 56 15.6 9.3 3.9 1.2 1.2 1.5 14 +0 15 E. Brand LAC 80 20.1 9.4 2.6 2.1 0.8 2.3 15 +0 23 C. Webber PHI 67 19.5 9.1 4.8 0.8 1.4 2.7 24 +1 25 S. Francis ORL 77 21.3 5.8 7.1 0.4 1.4 4.0 26 +1 26 J. O\'Neal IND 43 24.4 8.8 1.9 2.0 0.6 3.0 23 -3 27 L. Odom LAL 64 15.2 10.2 3.7 1.0 0.7 2.5 27 +0 30 B. Wallace DET 72 9.6 12.2 1.7 2.4 1.4 1.1 29 -1 32 P. Gasol MEM 55 17.8 7.4 2.4 1.7 0.7 2.5 32 +0 <b>34 C. Boozer UTA 51 17.8 9.0 2.8 0.5 0.8 2.7 31 -3 35 Y. Ming HOU 79 18.4 8.4 0.8 2.0 0.4 2.5 35 +0 </b> 36 C. Bosh TOR 79 16.9 8.9 1.9 1.4 1.0 2.3 37 +1 38 M. Camby DEN 66 10.3 10.0 2.3 3.0 0.9 1.6 38 +0 40 Z. Randolph POR 46 18.9 9.6 1.9 0.4 0.7 2.4 41 +1 41 D. Gooden CLE 80 14.6 9.2 1.6 0.9 1.0 1.6 40 -1 <b>43 S. Abdur-Rahim POR 52 17.1 7.5 2.1 0.5 0.9 2.2 43 +0 </b> 45 E. Okafor CHA 71 15.2 10.8 0.9 1.7 0.8 1.7 44 -1 <b>47 A. Walker BOS 75 19.3 9.1 3.5 0.8 1.2 3.3 45 -2 </b> 50 T. Murphy GSW 69 15.5 10.9 1.4 0.5 0.7 1.6 51 +1 53 D. Howard ORL 81 11.8 10.1 0.9 1.7 0.9 2.0 53 +0 56 K. Martin DEN 70 15.5 7.3 2.4 1.1 1.4 2.1 57 +1 58 K. Thomas NYK 78 11.5 10.4 2.0 1.0 0.9 1.3 54 -4 66 P. Brown NOH 81 10.8 9.0 2.1 0.6 0.9 1.2 65 -1 68 U. Haslem MIA 78 10.9 9.1 1.4 0.5 0.8 1.4 68 +0 69 R. Wallace DET 79 14.5 8.2 1.8 1.5 0.8 1.6 67 -2 72 M. Okur UTA 81 12.8 7.5 2.0 0.8 0.4 1.7 73 +1 <b>76 T. Chandler CHI 79 8.1 9.8 0.8 1.7 0.9 1.5 76 +0 </b> <b>78 D. Marshall TOR 65 11.5 6.6 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 78 +0 </b> 81 R. LaFrentz BOS 79 11.1 7.0 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.9 84 +3 <b>88 B. Sura HOU 60 10.1 5.5 5.2 0.1 1.0 2.5 88 +0</b> 94 K. Thomas SAC 72 12.4 7.3 2.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 91 -3 100 J. Smith MIL 74 11.0 7.3 0.9 0.5 0.6 1.1 99 -1 115 L. Wright MEM 79 9.7 7.7 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.3 115 +0 125 N. Mohammed SAS 76 9.5 7.6 0.5 1.1 0.8 1.4 127 +2 <b>126 C. Andersen NOH 67 7.7 6.1 1.1 1.5 0.2 1.0 128 +2 </b> <b>130 K. Cato ORL 62 7.0 6.7 0.7 1.3 0.9 1.0 125 -5 </b> 131 S. Dalembert PHI 71 8.3 7.5 0.5 1.7 0.6 1.6 126 -5 133 A. McDyess DET 75 9.7 6.3 1.0 0.7 0.6 1.2 132 -1 <b>139 M. James HOU 73 11.6 2.8 3.6 0.1 0.9 1.4 136 -3 </b> 141 N. Hilario DEN 54 9.4 5.8 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.7 137 -4 147 R. Evans SEA 77 4.9 9.4 0.7 0.2 0.7 1.3 144 -3 <b>148 D. Wesley HOU 79 11.8 2.9 3.3 0.1 1.2 1.4 146 -2 </b> <b>150 E. Griffin MIN 69 7.6 6.5 0.8 1.7 0.3 0.8 148 -2 </b> 151 K. Van Horn DAL 60 11.3 4.8 1.2 0.4 0.6 1.3 149 -2 <b>155 J. Howard HOU 61 9.6 5.7 1.5 0.1 0.5 1.3 153 -2 </b> <b>161 S. Swift MEM 59 10.1 4.6 0.7 1.5 0.7 1.5 163 +2 </b> 186 T. Ratliff POR 63 4.8 5.3 0.5 2.5 0.4 0.9 185 -1 195 T. Kukoc MIL 52 5.5 2.9 3.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 195 +0 <b>197 J. Barry HOU 68 6.5 2.3 2.4 0.1 0.9 1.0 193 -4 </b> <b>199 D. Mutombo HOU 79 4.1 5.3 0.1 1.2 0.2 0.6 200 +1</b> 200 R. Horry SAS 74 6.1 3.6 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 197 -3 203 O. Harrington CHI 68 8.1 4.1 0.8 0.3 0.3 1.2 202 -1 204 E. Thomas WAS 45 6.8 4.9 0.4 1.1 0.4 1.1 201 -3 207 C. Wilcox LAC 54 7.9 4.2 0.7 0.4 0.5 1.4 204 -3 210 D. Fortson SEA 61 7.6 5.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.5 209 -1 <b>215 E. Williams TOR 55 7.7 3.1 1.7 0.1 0.7 1.1 212 -3 </b> <b>220 C. Ward HOU 14 5.4 2.8 3.1 0.0 1.1 1.3 218 -2 </b> 225 C. Robinson NJN 69 7.7 3.0 1.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 222 -3 228 T. Gugliotta ATL 45 5.0 4.1 1.5 0.4 0.9 1.1 231 +3 229 G. Robinson SAS 8 9.3 2.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.8 315 +86 230 C. Laettner MIA 47 5.1 2.6 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.5 224 -6 <b>236 K. Brown WAS 40 6.5 4.8 0.9 0.4 0.6 1.6 228 -8 </b> 242 R. Traylor CLE 72 5.3 4.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 241 -1 244 M. Ely CHA 77 7.1 4.1 1.0 0.9 0.4 1.5 239 -5 252 M. Fizer MIL 53 6.3 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.5 1.2 260 +8 255 L. Woods TOR 45 3.9 4.9 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.8 252 -3 257 E. Najera DEN 68 5.2 3.6 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.9 254 -3 264 S. Pollard IND 48 4.0 4.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 258 -6 269 M. Taylor NYK 63 7.1 3.9 1.0 0.3 0.4 1.5 259 -10 280 D. Harvey NJN 3 2.7 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 278 -2 283 B. Nachbar NOH 70 7.0 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 293 +10 <b>301 S. Padgett HOU 65 4.1 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.5 305 +4 </b> <b>302 B. Grant LAL 68 3.8 3.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 295 -7 </b> 315 J. James SEA 78 5.0 3.0 0.2 1.4 0.3 1.1 312 -3 317 M. Doleac MIA 78 4.0 3.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 310 -7 <b>331 C. Weatherspoon HOU 39 3.1 3.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 332 +1 </b> 348 V. Potapenko SEA 31 3.1 2.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 341 -7 349 K. Perkins BOS 58 2.4 2.9 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.7 349 +0 360 B. Simmons LAC 74 16.4 5.9 2.8 0.2 1.4 1.8 59 -1 366 T. Massenburg SAS 60 3.3 2.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 365 -1 367 Z. Hamilton MIL 16 3.2 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.8 367 +0 371 V. Divac LAL 15 2.3 2.1 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.9 389 +18 373 M. Stewart ATL 10 1.8 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 394 +21 375 K. Willis ATL 29 3.0 2.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 373 -2 381 Q. Woods MIA 3 3.3 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.7 378 -3 <b>401 M. Norris HOU 37 2.4 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 398 -3 407 R. Bowen HOU 65 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 408 +1 </b> 408 D. Diop CLE 39 1.0 1.8 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.3 406 -2 413 B. Outlaw PHO 38 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 409 -4 414 S. Williams CLE 19 1.7 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 412 -2 437 N. Tskitishvili GSW 34 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 437 +0 443 D. Milicic DET 35 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.4 442 -1 After looking at the list and stats, I'm also wondering why we aren't looking at trades for Boozer or Murphy. But, its does seem that SAR and Walker are fairly close in stats. I think that SAR is going for the money in CLE, who is throwing him the max, so we probably don't have a chance with him, and if Walker will take the MLE, he seems like our best deal, as long as he understands his place. The good thing about JVG getting rid of anyone who didn't buy into his system, is that Walker would be coming into a situation where he chooses to buy in, or won't come, especially if he's getting less than half of the salary he's used to getting. I'm starting to warm up to Walker, I must admit. He's the same age as Cuttino, where he should be at his prime for a few years, and he's already been an all-star. Its all about what kind of attitude he has. Using up the full MLE does limit our options on getting a PG and SG. I'm thinking that if LA cuts Brian Grant, and he'd sign for our 1.5 mil exception, then we might want to consider trading J.Howard to CHI for Chris Duhon. They might go for that, and it would solve our PG problem. With our MLE gone, I don't think we have any way to get Cuttino, Simmons or Murray at SG, so we'll be limited to signing someone more expensive with our expiring contracts, such as D.Anderson. It would be cool if SA would trade us Brent Barry, and let the Barry brothers play together for a couple years.
Yup, and we traded Steve for TMac because Steve had a high trade value. So if Walker doesn't work out, who cares...he's tradable...and we could get something good in return. Can't say the same about Stro or Marshall. That being said, the similarities between Steve and Walker are that they were the 1st option on their teams. If Walker came here, he'd do so knowing he is the 3rd option. BIG DIFFERENCE!!!
Clevland has 28M in cap space. They have already offered 10M to resign Z and a max deal for Redd ~12M. That leaves around 6M. Word is they are going after a point guard A. Daniels or Sarunas Jasikevicius with the rest of the money. Atlanta is also after Z so 10M probably won't get it done. Only place I saw SAR's name with Clevland is when he stated he would like to play there. All other news point to Cleveland not going after a PF.
How much value could he possibly have if the Rockets are the only team that has shown any interest in him so far. I'm pretty sure if Steve Francis were a free agent this summer, he would be asking for more than the MLE money that Walker is asking for now. If Walker comes here and stinks as the 3rd option, shoots below 40%, turns the ball over +3 times a game, he'll become untradeable. And even if we were able to trade him, we definitely wouldn't be able to get a player as good as the ones we would potentially be passing over this summer (Mobley, Daniels, etc.). Wanna know what the Atlanta Hawks got for Antoine Walker last season when they traded him? Gary Payton, who they later ended up releasing. That shows you how much trade value Antoine Walker has. I think the day Van Gundy signed on as coach, it was abundantly clear to Francis that he was not the first option any more and I thought he was very willing to step back and let Yao be #1. The problem with Francis was not his willingness to step back, it was his ability to do so without making him worthless on offense. Walker can come here willing to change but that's a huge difference from being able to change.
I guess the guy I'd seem to liken Walker's role for us would be one of the classic Knicks that Van Gundy is familiar with, Anthony Mason. On the plus side, I don't think Walker could possibly shoot more jumpers than he does now. Here's an example of how Walker completely alters a defense against us. Currently, Juwan would get the ball on the elbow, and if the defense sagged in anticipation of a pass to Yao, he'd shoot, or get the ball to Yao. With Walker, you have a guy who can put the ball on the floor and then the make the play, or follow through with those other 2 options. Forcing the defense to respect a very credible 3rd option in that scenario completely distorts their ability to stop us. On the Francis comparison- a major hole in his game was exposed when he was asked to be the 2nd option. The guy just isn't a good spot up shooter. He's one of the more dangerous shooters off the dribble, but spotting up isn't his thing. Mobley is pretty good at both, but he's more of a lights out spot up guy. That's why his percentage has jumped the last few years. Luther Head is also actually a pretty good example of this. He's a lights out spot up shooter, but isn't very good off the dribble. That bodes much better for a Yao-TMac team. hottoddie- I could potentially see the Celts willing to take Mike James back, if they plan on letting Payton go.
Walker is horrible. On top of being a ball hog who takes ill-advised shots all the time and has a ridiculously low fg % for a PF, he also has an extremely low (almost Shaq-like) FT %. Hack-A-'Toine in the final minutes of close games, anyone? No thanks.
This is a nice thread...good analysis, Jeff. About free agency...if I remember correctly, teams cant actually sign FAs until later in July (maybe it's the 22nd?)..anyway, that is the official date...is there typically pre-signing news? like someone agreeing to play for a certain team...in other words, I am too impatient to wait. Do we typically find out who we're getting before that official date? (I cant remember how it usually works....)
Walker is a career 64% FT shooter, Walker has been as high as 74% and as low as 54% (last year). For comparison, Duncan is a career 69% shooter, he was 60% 2 years ago and 67% last year. While I lot poorer than it should be, I really don't think a hack-a-Toine would work, I would expect his FT to be at least 60%. Also, there are some numbers below that make me feel more than solid about Walker too. It terms of Fg%, Walker picked it up with Boston (44%) and his Dallas year it was OK (43%). What you have to remember is it included losts of 3s, so it is more efficient than it appears. Here are numbers from another thread. http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=98456 While no where near as efficient as SAR or DM, AW actually is about as efficient overall as Howard (PPS). SAR, AW and JH were all a respectable low 40s on jump shots (ejumpers). Swift or Reggie Evans (very poor jumper %) you would have to put in different positions to be effective than SAR, DM, AW or JH. Swift is a decently efficient PF overall who is capable of scoring, getting fouled, and making them at a high rate, so it isn't like he is an Evans or Cato offensively, but he would have to be utilized differently than how we used JH offensively last year. I just might be sold that Toine's negatives (TOs, excessive and often poor shot selection) being largely controlled by JVG and in the new Rockets system/players. For Dallas, the best offensive team he has played for, his rebounding (per 48) improved, his TOs were way down, and his scoring efficiency was up (though still less than I would expect). He adjusted his game in a lot of ways, he could do it even more with the team (JVG) discipline and match-up problems our big 2 cause. Still like SAR and probably Swift better, but I'd feel real good about a Toine if he lands here and a Toine/JH combination at the 4 spot.
Part of the problem was SF was the incumbent when JVG came on board. They had a tense power struggle all year. There were times (according to some) where SF blatantly did the opposite of what JVG would tell him to do. Maybe SF didn't feel he needed to change to benefit the team. Right now, Yao, T-Mac & JVG are the very strong incumbents here. AW would be the newcomer and understand straight from Day 1 he is #4 in the pecking order, at best. He knows he will be treated like a role player instead of a franchise player. Unlike SF, I believe he will try to make adjustments that are best for his new team. When SF's big contract runs out in '09 and he has to sign a new contract at his market value, he may finally understand his place and be willing to make personal sacrifices in his game for the sake of a team. With SF under JVG, it wasn't just a matter of him not being able to adjust; he didn't have the "want to" and still doesn't. When he loses that dumb "Stevie Franchise" nickname and realizes he is NOT a franchise player, SF could help a team contend. My hope is AW is already there. AW is 29 and hopefully more mature than SF was in 03-04 at age 26. (I know this isn't saying much). Lastly, AW is a good passer and at least shows flashes of having court vision, which means he might have the ability to make other players better. SF's court vision is limited to himself and whoever is guarding him.
