Analysis and projections on Swift, SAR and Walker versus Howard.

Excellent analysis. I would probably prefer SAR over Swift based on your conclusions. Props to you

 

Great job on your research of stats, but you can't rely solely on stats in making a decision. J Howard was a third option at best last year. Walker was a first or second option. Stats can be misleading.

Even if you manage to make a fair comaprison based on stats, there are som many other intangibles and how a player fits into your game plan. Walker is a below average three point shooter and does not have a solid midrange game. I don't see him as a major upgrade over Howard

 

excellent point. SAR's numbers might be on point because he was the second or third rebounder and the 3rd go-to-guy on the blazers. pretty much the same he would be for us.

however, walkers stats are padded because he was the frist or second option last year. we can't expect him to do so well here as the third option.

on the same note, SS numbers are deflated because he was't a go-to-guy at all for the grizzlies, yet he put up very nice numbers.


i would rank stro #1, SAR #2, walker #3.


can anyone get these stats on marshall?

 

Nice writeup.

I personally think if you can get Antoine Walker for the MLE, you have to do it. He has by far the best court vision of the bunch, and he's got rare ball-handling skills for a power forward. I think he'd be a very creative interior passer, and one of the problems with Yao was getting him touches deep in the paint. If Yao had to dribble much, he was turnover-prone, but if he could catch and shoot, he was very efficient.

I've come around from thinking we needed to place a premium on a defensive stalwart power forward to one that can help out our offense more. Our team defense was ranked top-five last year, and we were one of the best at defending the paint. I was surprised to see we were top 10 in rebounding differential. I think Swift or Evans would have helped here the most. But we were ranked 20 or so in offense, and I think Walker or Abdur-Rahim (or Marshall) would have the most impact to our team overall.

 

Ok, Walker is a good deal for the MLE, but just when I was getting happy about possible getting him Desert Scar has to provide that statistical analysis and bum me out.

from smoothie:

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. I'm not surprised JHo "graded out" so well, and his stats. last year are a bit skewed by our having so many new players and our disastrous start.

Walker's fg and ft percentages bother me especially since it's that mid-range shot that's easy pickings here, but he could improve.

 

The thing is, trying to assume that the stats would be consistant through 48 minutes for all players is not accurate. If we applied that logic to Cato, he'd have better numbers than Chandler. The truth is, we don't know what Swift would do if he had to play 48 minutes. We have a better idea what SAR and Walker would do because they've played starters minutes their whole career. We also know something else; SAR and WAlker are good rebounders and Swift is not. He really is the most risky of the three options.

 

I'd have to agree with that, except I think he is a bad man-to-man post defender. He gets a lot of blocks and rebounds but I don't think he could even slow down the current crop of power forwards in the West with single coverage. I don't have any stats to back me up on this, just my observation from watching his games over the years. I shudder to think of him on Garnett / Duncan / Stoudemire / Nowitzki.

 

just curious... why nobody is talking about Carlos Boozer? Utah will certainly flirt with offers and Boozer played great with LeBron and Z. He is just not your No.1-option guy. We have TMAC and Yao. I think Boozer will be a perfect fit for us.

Utah needs a 2 guard who can shoot and defend.

Wesley+other expiring contracts + picks for boozer, anybody?

 

Very good thread starter, Desert Scar, especially since your conclusions are fact based instead of wishful thinking.

I agree SAR and Walker would start ahead of JH and could see up to 35 mins/game. This makes them worth offering a 5 year contract at the MLE or a SnT. Good point about removing potential from the discussion. SS, even if he did win the starting job, might still play only ~25 minutes a game and would probably be close to the same player he's always been. He adds shot blocking but our interior defense (I think) was the best in the NBA last year if you look at points scored in the paint. Walker and SAR bring serious skills to the table that SS may never develop. My order of preference would be 1 SAR, 2 AW, 3 SS. I put Bobby Simmons ahead of all 3, but that's another conversation.

One other thought: The attitude issue with who we bring in may not be as important as we think. ANY player coming to this team knows it belongs to T-Mac, Yao & JVG. It would take a complete low IQ moron to think he could come to this team and change the order of things. I say this because AW would not come here unless he decided playing 3rd fiddle was good enough. Same for Cuttino Mobley.

I'm actually softening (a little) to the idea of AW joining us. Still not there yet.

 

It's all about FG %. You can't fake it.

SAR is the guy.

 

I don't think I would read into the individual statistics simply because we have absolutely no idea what Stromile Swift will bring, but more importantly that Antoine Walker's worth is not in what individual statistics he will accumulate but rather his overall effect upon other players.

We can throw out Reggie Evans for all serious discussions. We're not handing out a multiyear contract to a no-talent thug. Those can be found at a cheaper cost.

In my personal preferences, I have thrown out SAR. Unlike Walker, he simply has no impact on the game. He's basically a younger, slightly more talented version of Juwon Howard.

To me, it comes down to Swift and Walker. The former is younger but we don't know if he is a big time NBA starter. Durability is also an issue. Walker will be 29, but I don't think age will be an issue for him throughout the life of his contract. He's not a guy who uses athleticism but rather his skill and size. I think that his shooting percentages are irrelevant - his real worth to the Rockets are his playmaking and ball handling abilities. A power forward with that kind of vision at the top of the key would make the post entry to Yao that much easier. Adding his rare talents to a frontline already including McGrady and Yao would make this offense virtually unstoppable. TNT showed how greatly Paul Peirce's stats improved after the trade. I guess one can adopt the frame of mind that if you can't defend the top power forwards in the league, you might as well make them defend you. And with Yao inside and Walker on the perimeter, defend is exactly what they would have to do. So it basically comes down to the defensive potential with Swift's youth and athleticism or transforming into a virtual offensive juggernaut with Walker.

It's crazy because maybe 36 hours ago I would have told you that Antoine Walker was my most hated player in the league. But there's something about the thought of bringing that attitude in that is intriguing, kind of like a sudden jump start to this team. While not nearly to the same magnitude, it would be kind of like how everyone loved Hakeem and Clyde, and then you bring in Charles and half the city hates him and the other half loves him.

 

Here's what we'll get if we sign Antoine Walker:

Maurice Taylor with Rebounding and Point Guard Skills.

A guy that can score in the post with a variety of low post moves and baby hooks. A cheerleader who fires up his teammates and brings a positive lockerroom presence. Someone who can lead the break and make plays in the halfcourt.

My biggest problem with Toine is his shot selection and turnovers. Last year we succeeded on offense, despite having less overall talent, by making the extra pass, taking quality shots, and limiting turnovers. Would that happen with Toine as the #3 guy, and in all likelihood the #2 ballhandler?

 

Great thread Desert Scar. I agree with your thinking that the Rockets should focus first on SAR/Swift and then move on to the next tier of PFs (Marshall, Walker, Evans). Like I said in my last post, SAR/Walker/Swift could all have a great impact on the Rockets and put them (in my opinion) ahead of Dallas and right behind the Suns. Marshall and Evans wont have the same kind of impact but would still add quality depth to a team that really needs it at that position.

 

My juju bones, tarot cards, Mayan war rattle, and Quasimodo voodoo doll all point to SAR. So does my intuition, the Rocket's pocket book, and think tank.
Check back later to review and possibly revise methods.

 

you guys are throating

 

The Rockets played extremely well when Howard was on his game. To have a younger, better version of Howard is just what we need.

 

SAR would be my choice, but not an entirely happy one. I only choose him because he has the best attitude and work ethic. I would choose Donyell Marshall over all three because he's so consistent and hard-working, but he's simply too old. We can't get our perfect PF in this offseason.