Playstation Meeting later tonight/early tomorrow (PS3 info almost guaranteed)

Svpernaut · Mar 15, 2006

OldManBernie said:

I don't think PS3 selling well is a foregone conclusion. XBox is going to have a full year to develop their gaming library before PS3 comes out. If PS3 doesn't have strong titles tied to it's release, they could be in for some trouble IMO.
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It will sell well, even with all those intangibles... however, Microsoft is going to make up a huge chunk of the difference that was there in the PS2/XBox battle. Regardless of how non-chalantly RC plays off the late release of the PS3 there will be millions and millions of 360s sold to people that were expecting a spring release of PS3 and that doesn't even take into count the expected cost of the PS3 over the 360.

KingCheetah · Mar 15, 2006

Merill Lynch Predicts a Delayed $900 PS3

A recent report from Merill Lynch indicates that the Playstation 3 could be delayed until 2007 in the United States, and may cost up to $900 at launch. All the information below is based on the released Merill Lynch PDF.

Merill Lynch predicts the PS3's 2007 launch in the United States based on an inside colleague and also states that the PS3's Blu-Ray drive and Cell processor are the reasons behind the increased cost of the Playstation 3.

"In particular, Sony’s decision to implement an ambitious new processor architecture – the Cell – not only took a great deal of design effort, but also has resulted in a processor that we think will cost Sony at least $230 per unit initially."

"The Blu-Ray drive also looks expensive at an estimated $350, and Sony will not be able to leverage off additional Blu-Ray shipments in DVD players because the standard is still so new."

Below is a graph that is shown in the PDF, which actually adds up to $800 for an unexplained reason.

link

RC Cola · Mar 15, 2006

Wow...so what was the purpose of posting some BS report from mid February (and one which has been already been discussed a lot) in this thread?

FWIW, here's another "analysis" from Merrill Lynch:

KingCheetah · Mar 15, 2006

RC Cola said:

Wow...so what was the purpose of posting some BS report from mid February (and one which has been already been discussed a lot) in this thread?
Click to expand...

The report is less than a month old. Why do you call it "bs"?

RC Cola · Mar 15, 2006

KingCheetah said:

The report is less than a month old. Why do you call it "bs"?
Click to expand...

ML couldn't even add up the numbers correctly (which they admitted) or come up with the correct name for the PS3 (PSX 3, PS III, etc.). The analysis itself has been torn to shreds numerous times already. I won't get deep into it, but if you don't see something wrong with ML expecting the PS3 to cost ~$320 after 3 years, which is about the same as what the 360 cost MS to make at launch (according to ML), then I don't know what to say.

Really, the whole thing seems like numbers picked out of the sky.

UTweezer · Mar 15, 2006

who cares what all these analyst say. no one knows the retail price until they make an announcement.

rc aka sony customer service rep and supernaut aka. mr 360 need to duke it out until then,...

Xenochimera · Mar 15, 2006

even if it adds up to be a lot they wouldnt sell it at production cost, more like below it. didnt the xbox cost $500 to make or something?

KingCheetah · Mar 15, 2006

RC Cola said:

The analysis itself has been torn to shreds numerous times already.

Really, the whole thing seems like numbers picked out of the sky.
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The report is less than a month old ~ I haven't seen it torn to shreds.

Blu-Ray is expensive and new tech -- Cell is expensive and new tech.

If Cell and Blu-Ray don't catch on they will remain expensive and ultimately fade away.

SamFisher · Mar 15, 2006

KingCheetah said:

The report is less than a month old ~ I haven't seen it torn to shreds.

Blu-Ray is expensive and new tech -- Cell is expensive and new tech.

If Cell and Blu-Ray don't catch on they will remain expensive and ultimately fade away.
Click to expand...

Teenage sony apologists/armchair analysts > Merrill Lynch

RC Cola · Mar 15, 2006

KingCheetah said:

The report is less than a month old ~ I haven't seen it torn to shreds.

Blu-Ray is expensive and new tech -- Cell is expensive and new tech.

If Cell and Blu-Ray don't catch on they will remain expensive and ultimately fade away.
Click to expand...

For a report claiming that the PS3 will cost $900 (or $800 if you do the math right), a month is enough for time for this article to make its way across the internet 5 times.

Neverless, here's some things to read:
http://psinext.e-mpire.com/index.php?categoryid=4&m_articles_articleid=368

Merrill Lynch and myself have something in common: neither of us knows what the components inside the Playstation 3 will ultimately cost Sony to produce. That's probably where the similarities end however.

Merrill Lynch recently ventured a guess as to what these figures will be, and I feel their analysis so egregious as to demand some form of response. This article is not to venture an alternate guess to the figures presented per se, but rather to indicate the ways in which analysts in the video game industry come at their jobs half-assed and ill-prepared in terms of what's necessary to make an informed prediction. In this article, I will focus on Merrill's professionalism and methodology.

For those who have not yet read the analysis, it is available for viewing here: http://rsch1.ml.com/9093/24013/ds/276873_0.PDF

To begin, let us look at the professionalism aspect. If this were a report written up for a college class, there would be red ink all over it, and I have no doubt the 'college project' mentality was exactly the one behind this product. It contains a lack of consistency throughout in the manner in which the upcoming Playstation is referenced; Playstation 3, PlayStation 3, PS 3, and PS III all being used interchangeably to describe the system. PS III?

The report also touts repeatedly a $900 manufacturing figure in terms of costs, but on the actual bill of materials chart, the total comes out to $800. These mistakes are minor, but their ease of correction is what makes them all the more puzzling. For a report representing a major investment house, at the very minimum it shows off very poor editing skills and quality control. Professionalism aside though, by far the points I take most issue with are the weak technical arguments made.

Merrill asserts:

"...Sony's decision to implement an ambitious new processor architecture...has resulted in a processor we think will cost Sony at least $230 per unit initially. ...The die, at 235 square millimeters initially, is large, and Sony plans to manufacture it on a leading-edge 90nm process. Add to that the fact that the die is mostly logic, not memory arrays that can be easily repaired, and you've got a part that looks like it will be difficult and expensive to manufacture..."

Let's look at what we know.

In 1999 Sony began mass production of the PlayStation 2's EmotionEngine processor, on an - at the time - cutting edge 250nm fabrication process utilizing 200mm wafers. The die size of the chips produced was 240mm^2; larger than that of the Cell chip. Yields weren't all that great, and the chip was expensive.

In sharp contrast to that, Sony has taken several precautions this time around to make sure that the Cell chips going inside of PS3 control costs in ways that the EmotionEngine simply did not. Whereas Merrill asserts that today's process is a 'leading-edge' 90nm process, the fact is that 90nm SOI has been around for a while now, and Kutaragi has made specific past references to his use of 90nm for launch precisely because it is the conservative choice. The IBM-developed SOI process used for Cell production has been used for considerable time in IBM's Power chips as well as AMD's line of Athlon 64/Opteron processors, and Cell itself has been in production for over a year now on that same process. Indeed, IBM's confidence in Cell yields recently prompted Senior Vice President of IBM’s Systems & Technology Group to announce to a press conference a couple of weeks ago that "yield learning" with Cell has progressed "faster than on any chip we’ve done" to date.

And as if these differences alone weren't advantage enough over the EmotionEngine situation back with PlayStation 2, consider also that not only is Cell being produced on larger 300mm silicon wafers (again, better yields), but due to Kutaragi's decision to use Cell chips with only seven of the eight SPE's active, Sony is able to utilize a larger number of the Cell processors produced per wafer; some of which would otherwise have been rendered unsuitable due to die defects. In truth, as long as the PPE core is functional, I'm sure that all Cell chips are being saved to be put to use in future consumer electronics devices.

RSX should itself also come out to be less expensive than the original GraphicsSynthesizer was to fab. Even if RSX were to be 'something more' than an NVidia G70 chip shrunk down to 90nm, it would have to be something pretty extraordinary to compete with the mammoth 279mm^2 chip that comprised the original PS2's graphics processor. Add to this that Kutaragi has indicated RSX will feature 'redundancy' similar to Cell - likely in the form of a disabled pixel quad - and you have a chip whose yields should blow those of the original Playstation 2's GS chip out of the water.

For those interested, RSX will be fabbed on Sony's mature 90nm CMOS 4 process, presently used for the slimline Playstation 2's EE+GS@ 90nm chip and production of the primary PSP processors.

Now let's shift gears away from Cell and RSX for a moment, and look again at a particular quote.

"Add to that the fact that the die is mostly logic, not memory arrays that can be easily repaired, and you've got a part that looks like it will be difficult and expensive to manufacture."

I have to inform the reader here, that it is impossible to repair a microprocessor - it simply cannot be done. By 'memory arrays' Merrill is clearly referring (obtusely) to the cache of the PPE core, and/or the local memory of the SPE's. Indeed cache does incorporate a level of defect tolerance, but by no means are such defects able to be repaired, and the fact that the Merrill uses such language in their report indicates to me an analyst staff that on one level or another is ignorant of processor design. Of course, their analysis of the other difficulties facing Cell was enough to expose their lack of thoroughness in and of itself, but this quote referencing the repair of memory arrays comes off as particularly egregious.

Time to start wrapping things up - Blu-ray.

I think a lot of us can reflect and venture a guess that Blu-ray will likely be the single largest expense for the PS3 at the start of its life. At present there are very few makers of the actual components themselves; Sony and Nichia for the laser diodes, Philips for the optical pickup unit. But are we to believe a cost of $350 per drive for a read-only unit? I'm not sure that I would.

In April Samsung is set to introduce the SH-B022, a PC Blu-ray burner drive with a present estimated retail price of $500. It should be mentioned that in fact this unit has already made its way into reviewers hands, who have successfully tested the unit with Nero and burned a BD disc with it. Now, if one is aware of a consumer retail BD-writer coming on the market for $500 - knowing first generation technology like this will carry a significant markup on the retail end - can one not envision that a read-only drive sourced internally by one of the sole diode producers should likely cost less than the $350 estimate? I believe it stands to reason.

Eighty dollars worth of IO components? I'd be interested to see how they break down those numbers.

The fact is that the analysis is poorly researched, poorly written, and is overly bold in it's assertions. Merrill Lynch's estimates and methodology have been bad in the past - as is ironically typical of most game industry analysts - but this report is simply over the top in the way it's reverberated across the Internet.

This is not to say of course that I have numbers to put forth in place of these... but I think in the end that in itself is the point. I don't know the numbers, so I'm not writing about them. Merrill also doesn't know the numbers, uses flawed methodologies and logic to reach numbers, and then publishes analyst reports based on those numbers.

So here I am writing about that instead.
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http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=62976

The same report from analysts at Merrill Lynch that predicted that the PS3 could be delayed by over six months has also suggested that the components used to build each console could cost Sony over $800.

Presenting a list of materials needed for each console, Merrill Lynch analyst Joe Osha pins the highest costs on the Blu-Ray drive used by the system, at $350, and the Cell processor, at $230.

Other components including the NVIDIA RSX chip ($70) and the system's memory ($50) stack up with smaller costs such as Bluetooth and Wi-Fi chips to bring the total to $800 (although Osha's report miscalculates this figure as $900).

Although Osha predicts that the bill of materials cost will fall to $320 within three years, his headline figure is stark - and the report describes the situation in harsh terms, stating bluntly that "it's now clear that the box is prohibitively expensive to make."

However, it should be borne in mind that Osha makes no particular claim to have insider knowledge of Sony's manufacturing or materials costs for the console - and while he explains his reasoning for some of the price tags he attaches to materials, others remain entirely inexplicable.

The incredibly high cost of the Blu-Ray drive, for example, is an anomaly that can perhaps be explained by the widespread confusion over the difference between a simple Blu-Ray data drive, a technology which is more complex than existing DVD drives but not enormously so, and a home Blu-Ray player or recorder, which must include a variety of expensive video and audio processing hardware which the PS3 already has on-board as part of its core functionality.

Although it remains a possibility that Blu-Ray drives will be expensive to manufacture, hard evidence of this has yet to emerge - and there is widespread scepticism over the incredibly high price points being attached to the technology by many analysts, especially since the PS3 is expected to have a Read-only Blu-Ray drive, and most other Blu-Ray devices for which even tentative price points have been mentioned are more expensive Read-Write devices.

The other component which Osha expects to be incredibly expensive is Cell, with the price for the chip placed at $230 - a factor, he says, of the fact that the die size of the chip is large, and mostly made up of logic circuits rather than the easier to repair memory circuits.

However, his assertion that the chip will be difficult and hence expensive to manufacture is thrown into doubt by comments made by IBM senior vice president William Zeittler earlier this month, when he said that the firm is succeeding in ramping up yields of Cell "faster than on any chip we've done."

In other words, while Merrill Lynch's report has not only impacted Sony's share price today, but has also kicked off a storm in the mainstream media about the status of PS3, some of its basic assumptions appear to be founded on shaky ground - and like all analyst reports dealing with the technical aspects of console manufacture or game development, it deserves to be viewed with a healthy dose of scepticism.

While Sony has made a habit of announcing key details of its strategy at press conferences in Tokyo, the next planned public discussion of the firm's plans will take place at the Game Developers' Conference in San Jose in late March, where the company's worldwide studios boss Phil Harrison will take the stage to deliver a keynote speech.
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(some forum threads below, one from here)
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=109076
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=28482
http://www.ga-forum.com/showthread.php?t=86924

Plenty more where those came from, but that will get you started (as well as anyone else who expects the PS3 to cost some insane amount to make).

SamFisher said:

Teenage sony apologists/armchair analysts > Merrill Lynch
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Eh...why not? ML already got the cost of one next-gen console wrong (don’t know the costs for the 360, but I believe MS confirmed they were losing money on the premium system), and probably more if I go back in time. At least I can add correctly too.

KingCheetah · Mar 15, 2006

RC Cola said:

Neverless, here's some things to read:
http://psinext.e-mpire.com/index.php?categoryid=4&m_articles_articleid=368

http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=62976
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You'll need to do better than an article from the PSINext [playstation insider] editorial page and eurogamer both of which are fanboy crap.

SamFisher · Mar 15, 2006

RC - you very well could be righta bout the cost. But as a general rule I would expect that analysts in the tech sector who are in regular contact with, inter alia, corporate IR personnel and other industry insiders are as good/better than the IGN forums or whatever - but maybe not, it's not an old line industry, that's for sure.

I just don't understand how anybody short of an employee or shareholder can become a corporate cheerleader for Sony (or any public company for that matter). It's one thing to like the games or something - but honestly I can say I don't give a sh-t who makes a console or more particularly what their P/E ratio or market cap rather than having fun playing a game. I guess I have nostalgia for Commodore Business Machines, Inc. but for the old school games rather than its quarterly dividends.

Seriously, if you like Japanese RPG's that's great, but I don't see where spinning sony press releases their way is going to help you do so any more or less. Honestly, as long as there's healthy competition enough so that I'd enjoy playing a game every now and then, I'm perfectly happy no matter who has what market share.

RC Cola · Mar 15, 2006

KingCheetah said:

You'll need to do better than an article from the PSINext [playstation insider] editorial page and eurogamer both of which are fanboy crap.
Click to expand...

The PSINext article is very good, despite being hosted on a PS site; IIRC, the author is a poster on the B3D forums that probably knows a lot more about these consoles than the ML analyst. If you still think it is fanboy crap, point them out in the article (if you can undersand it). Otherwise, just don't dismiss it as "fanboy crap."

I don't understand the claim that Eurogamer is "fanboy crap" either. Never knew that about Eurogamer.

KingCheetah · Mar 15, 2006

"The same report from analysts at Merrill Lynch that predicted that the PS3 could be delayed by over six months has also suggested that the components used to build each console could cost Sony over $800."
______________

The opening sentence from the 2/20/06 eurogamer.

Well, the Merrill Lynch analysts were correct with their estimate for the PS3 delay.

The rest of the analysis was based on solid industry facts as well -- unlike the editorial/ opinions you have posted from teen playstation fanboys.

RC Cola · Mar 15, 2006

SamFisher said:

RC - you very well could be righta bout the cost. But as a general rule I would expect that analysts in the tech sector who are in regular contact with, inter alia, corporate IR personnel and other industry insiders are as good/better than the IGN forums or whatever - but maybe not, it's not an old line industry, that's for sure.

I just don't understand how anybody short of an employee or shareholder can become a corporate cheerleader for Sony (or any public company for that matter). It's one thing to like the games or something - but honestly I can say I don't give a sh-t who makes a console or more particularly what their P/E ratio or market cap rather than having fun playing a game. I guess I have nostalgia for Commodore Business Machines, Inc. but for the old school games rather than its quarterly dividends.

Seriously, if you like Japanese RPG's that's great, but I don't see where spinning sony press releases their way is going to help you do so any more or less. Honestly, as long as there's healthy competition enough so that I'd enjoy playing a game every now and then, I'm perfectly happy no matter who has what market share.
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If I'm guilty of spinning Sony press releases because I don't think it will cost Sony $900 to make the PS3, because I don't think the delay is that big of a deal, because I don't think Sony caused a format war by "forcing" MS to react to the BR inclusion in the PS3, etc., then I guess I'm guilty of spinning things. Personally, I see some statements that are either very misinformed, or from "fanboys" ("PS3 will cost at LEAST $600", "BR/HD DVD players won't play movies on TVs without HDMI", etc.). I'd "spin" for other consoles under the same situation (probably have already actually, numerous times).

Point out everything I said that could count as "spinning press releases." As I've said in the past, I grow tired of these simple accusations, especially when I'm usually posting tons of links and factual information. No one seems to want to argue those facts, but they do like to accuse me of things.

KingCheetah said:

"The same report from analysts at Merrill Lynch that predicted that the PS3 could be delayed by over six months has also suggested that the components used to build each console could cost Sony over $800."
______________

The opening sentence from the 2/20/06 eurogamer.

Well, the Merrill Lynch analysts were correct with their estimate for the PS3 delay.

The rest of the analysis was based on solid industry facts as well -- unlike the editorial/ opinions you have posted from teen playstation fanboys.
Click to expand...

The delay from June (last month of Spring) to November is about 5-6 months, not 6+, but I'll give you that. The delay part of the report was the only believable (and even probable) thing. The actual analysis of the cost for the system is the BS.

Here are the parts in the Eurogamer article to check out:

However, it should be borne in mind that Osha makes no particular claim to have insider knowledge of Sony's manufacturing or materials costs for the console - and while he explains his reasoning for some of the price tags he attaches to materials, others remain entirely inexplicable.

The incredibly high cost of the Blu-Ray drive, for example, is an anomaly that can perhaps be explained by the widespread confusion over the difference between a simple Blu-Ray data drive, a technology which is more complex than existing DVD drives but not enormously so, and a home Blu-Ray player or recorder, which must include a variety of expensive video and audio processing hardware which the PS3 already has on-board as part of its core functionality.

Although it remains a possibility that Blu-Ray drives will be expensive to manufacture, hard evidence of this has yet to emerge - and there is widespread scepticism over the incredibly high price points being attached to the technology by many analysts, especially since the PS3 is expected to have a Read-only Blu-Ray drive, and most other Blu-Ray devices for which even tentative price points have been mentioned are more expensive Read-Write devices.

The other component which Osha expects to be incredibly expensive is Cell, with the price for the chip placed at $230 - a factor, he says, of the fact that the die size of the chip is large, and mostly made up of logic circuits rather than the easier to repair memory circuits.

However, his assertion that the chip will be difficult and hence expensive to manufacture is thrown into doubt by comments made by IBM senior vice president William Zeittler earlier this month, when he said that the firm is succeeding in ramping up yields of Cell "faster than on any chip we've done."

In other words, while Merrill Lynch's report has not only impacted Sony's share price today, but has also kicked off a storm in the mainstream media about the status of PS3, some of its basic assumptions appear to be founded on shaky ground - and like all analyst reports dealing with the technical aspects of console manufacture or game development, it deserves to be viewed with a healthy dose of scepticism.
Click to expand...

And again, point out the issues with the other article. Explain how wondering how a BR drive could cost $350 when a burner is priced at $500 is "fanboy crap." Explain how the redundency and resuse of Cell chips helping to drive down costs of the PS3 CPU is fanboy crap. I must have missed the "solid industry facts" that contradict these statements. Point them out for me.

SamFisher · Mar 15, 2006

RC Cola said:

If I'm guilty of spinning Sony press releases because I don't think it will cost Sony $900 to make the PS3, because I don't think the delay is that big of a deal, because I don't think Sony caused a format war by "forcing" MS to react to the BR inclusion in the PS3, etc., then I guess I'm guilty of spinning things. Personally, I see some statements that are either very misinformed, or from "fanboys" ("PS3 will cost at LEAST $600", "BR/HD DVD players won't play movies on TVs without HDMI", etc.). I'd "spin" for other consoles under the same situation (probably have already actually, numerous times).

Point out everything I said that could count as "spinning press releases." As I've said in the past, I grow tired of these simple accusations, especially when I'm usually posting tons of links and factual information. No one seems to want to argue those facts, but they do like to accuse me of things.

.
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Sorry then - you're just an impartial observer revealing the truth: Sony Corporation is awesome.

But you want truth? Fine - I think your posts in this thread trying to downplay the delay as bad news for Sony count. For instance the one where your soft-pedaling the decline in Sony's share price today. That's great, but the not-so-huge decline is due largely to the fact that most investors - assumng that sony investors are rational welfare maximizers rather than - fanboys who heart sony 4eva - have already discounted sony shares to factor in possible delays as rumors & other info that permeates the market (such as the 'garbage' report by merrill lynch - 5-6 months vs. 6+ months? Either way it's a long way from Q2 - and a lot closer than Sony's old guidance). Again, why you feel the need to act like a Corporate Communicatins VP about it for Sony or any company is beyond me.

KingCheetah · Mar 15, 2006

hotballa · Mar 15, 2006

wow...ok I'm getting a 360. Theres no way I'm waiting that long for a PS3. Only thing I'm waiting that long for is a Revolution.

RC Cola · Mar 15, 2006

SamFisher said:

Sorry then - you're just an impartial observer revealing the truth: Sony Corporation is awesome.

But you want truth? Fine - I think your posts in this thread trying to downplay the delay as bad news for Sony count. For instance the one where your soft-pedaling the decline in Sony's share price today. That's great, but the not-so-huge decline is due largely to the fact that most investors - assumng that sony investors are rational welfare maximizers rather than - fanboys who heart sony 4eva - have already discounted sony shares to factor in possible delays as rumors & other info that permeates the market (such as the 'garbage' report by merrill lynch - 5-6 months vs. 6+ months? Either way it's a long way from Q2 - and a lot closer than Sony's old guidance). Again, why you feel the need to act like a Corporate Communicatins VP about it for Sony or any company is beyond me.
Click to expand...

I don't even think I even really put much effort into discussing Sony's share price today. Only thing I did even close to that was bolding that small part in the Forbes article (which I guess did the "spinning," not me). Even then, I was more interested in the other comments in the article that I bolded; the share price thing was something I just threw in to bold.

The rest of my comments regarding the delay are nothing too surprising or unique. As I told Svpernaut, the delay is bad news, but I don't see it having a huge impact. Japan gets it later than they were supposed to, but it appears as though their money won't be going to any next-gen console until November anyway. Here in the US, we're getting the PS3 at about the same time as expected, just in time for the holidays. So no impact whatsoever. Europe and the rest of the world are getting the PS3 much sooner than expected, which is good news for them. As I read on another forum, it is funny reading the negative reports about the delay, yet most forums (especially those based in Europe) are pretty positive about this news. With reactions like that, I don't see how this could be that big of a deal.

Am I wrong for thinking that? Will Europe (who will probably be the biggest region of the 3 in a few years) turn on Sony for releasing the PS3 earlier than expected? Will the Japanese decide to start liking WWII FPS games, increasing the 360 sales dramatically (like to PS2 levels...in 2006)? Will Americans who expected the PS3 in the Fall now decide to get a 360...because the PS3 will be out in the Fall?

KingCheetah said:

http://i2.tinypic.com/rj0du1.jpg
Click to expand...

Still working on explaining those "fanboy" statements?

SamFisher · Mar 15, 2006

RC Cola said:

Still working on explaining those "fanboy" statements?
Click to expand...

No, he's probably playing video games or something lame like that...

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