Has Sony's silence regarding the PS3 become a problem?

Despite the fact that I've wanted more PS3 info since TGS ended late last year, I never really had that much of a problem with Sony deciding to keep the full details to themselves. After all, there's no use in them showing all their cards early, especially if it might impact sales for the PSP and PS2. I thought that Sony would wait until just the right moment, and when that time came, they'd let us know more about the PS3, possibly in blowout fashion (ala E3). Despite others being disappointed at the lack of new info during the holidays (when the 360 launched), during CES (where Sony had the largest area on the floor), and even during smaller events like the Taipei Game Show and ISSCC (where Ken Kutaragi talked about Cell and games in general), I never really cared too much when Sony remained silent.

However, we're now about a month away from the official start of Spring, and there still isn't much known about the PS3. The rumored "PLAYSTATION Conference" that was to take place on the "eve" of the PS3 launch during this month seems to have been put on hold, if not cancelled outright (unless, of course, they somehow announce and have the show in about a week's time). To make matters worse, a recent report from Merril Lynch has been picked up by the mainstream news (USA Today, MSNBC, CNET, Financial Times, etc.) and is currently one of the top articles at Google News (the top under the Sci/Tech section) with about 300 articles reporting about a possible (or probable as the articles suggest) delay. Now, Sony has sinced denied the reports, and probably rightfully so considering the amount of effort that went into anaylzing the costs for the PS3, but that didn't stop their stock from dropping due to the report.

Now, I'm going to assume that the ML report about Sony possibly delaying the console due to costs concerns was nothing but BS simply because...well, their analysis seemed like BS.* If that were the case and Sony can produce the PS3 "anytime," then obviously there might be a bit of a problem going on. A spokesperson from SCEI can deny these reports and point to the same "Spring 2006" announcement Sony made at E3, but it seems like that won't stop people from speculating on a delay or an insane price tag. After all, even though I personally have no issues with tech demos and realtime footage, it is true that Sony has yet to show anything really playable (outside of a few titles) on a "real" PS3. Then there's the rumors about the controller as well, which apparently no one besides the SCEI CEO, Ken Kutaragi, has laid a hand on. Whether they like it or not, Sony may have a little extra persuasion to release new info on the PS3 ASAP.

So as the thread title says, is this silence becoming a problem? Are there now doubts in your mind that weren't previously there thanks to numerous rumors about a delay and/or other areas of concern?

Personally, I'm somewhat split on the issue. Up until recently, I didn't really care that much, but I really expected for Sony to start letting the air out of the balloon this month, which has yet to happen with about 8 days left to go. For others, when they see sources like the USA Today and the Financial Times mention a 2007 launch and a $800-$900 cost for making the PS3, all of a sudden the Xbox 360 starts looking much more appealing (especially with the killer March it has lined up). I'm not sure what is going to happen, but with the Spring season coming up quickly (which includes GDC and E3), I don't think Sony can keep silent for much longer.


*I think we can all agree that, if the reports of a delay to 2007 were true, then Sony would probably be in big trouble. I won't get into all of it, but obviously some people would be pissed, including possibly developers, publishers and even movie studios planning on having a few extra million Blu-ray players out this year. I'm not necessarily ruling out a delay, but I'm simplifying the situation by assuming it to be false, especially with Sony continuing to say "Spring 2006."

 

True. In fact, I probably would have said the same things not so long ago.

Still, I just wonder if those that were on the fence may now consider the 360 as a strong choice, especially when they see Fight Night 3, GRAW, Oblivion, etc. (including improving supply), while on the other hand, they're seeing Merrill Lynch and sources like the USA Today state that the PS3 might see a 6-12 month delay due to production costs exceeding $800. I mean, if Sony did more than just deny those reports (IE: show some playable games, give more info on online service/RSX, info on release schedule, etc.), then that would probably be pretty huge in a way, especially hot off the heels of reports suggesting otherwise. But if they continue to keep things secret, I just don't know how much more hype they can create by doing so. There have been reports by analysts suggesting a high price tag and/or a delay for a while now; what use is there in allowing for yet another round of "No PS3 till late 2007 due to $1600 production costs" articles? Just seems like there's really no way to really increase hype, but they might end up losing some possible customers to this, not to mention having their stock drop.

Of course, I realize I'm overreacting a bit. Despite nothing happening in the last few months, I still feel as though Sony will release some new info soon (either by their own schedule or due to the recent bad press). I guess I'm just getting tired of seeing the same old analyst predictions based on absolutely nothing, especially when Sony could easily just end all that now...which happens to be a time period where Sony could probably benefit from doing so (after holidays, so PS2/PSP sales aren't as badly affect, plus they can possible take some attention away from the 360).

Well, I'm not necessarily asking should Sony launch the PS3 tomorrow worldwide, with 5-10 million units. I was just wondering if maybe it was about time to start letting the air out of the balloon.

Personally, I think a Spring (June-esque) launch in Japan and a Fall launch in the US should do OK for Sony when it comes to supply. IBM is apparently ramping up yields of Cell "faster than on any chip" they've done, and it sounds like it might have better yields, relatively speaking, than the Xenon CPU in the 360. RSX, if "just" a G70 (though I think that's been debunked IIRC), shouldn't be very complex to make either, at worst probably around the same as Xenos. The thing that might limit supply would probably be the Blu-ray drives, or possibly the laser diodes to be more specific. Still, hopefully they won't have to worry as much about supply as MS has had to, although that could still be a problem depending on exactly how crazy the demand is. Either way though, they can still ease up a bit on the secrets and still plan out when (and where?) to launch the PS3.

The PSP had great supply, at least in the US. Think it had shortages in the UK and possibly the Japanese launch. But yeah, I'm sure we won't be seeing too many PS3's on the shelves at launch...unless it priced at $700, but still loses $100-$200 per console.



So yeah, this thread was partly me ranting about all these rumors based on very little evidence (yet becoming mainstream news), and partly me wondering how others felt about Sony continuing to withhold information.

 

Well, I've been leaning towards a Fall 06 US release anyway, so the 06 holidays wouldn't be too different. Prior to this month, I believe they had been following the PS2 schedule almost to a T (little-to-no info prior to February, then a Feb show, then a Japanese release the first week of March). Again, they might surprise me in the next few days, but I'm starting to doubt anything new will be revealed this month.

As for hyping up the PS3, the media has already hyped it up quite a bit, so the marketing team at Sony doesn't really have to do much to create hype for the PS3. They might have to shoot down some rumors though, which is one of my concerns. I know they'll have something at E3 (that would make MS "bring their diapers"), but I don't know if they should wait that long to release anything of importance about the PS3.

BTW, as I said earlier, the whole $800-$900 per machine thing is BS IMO. Heck, I'm still trying to figure out how the PS3 could come out 6-12 months later than the 360, cost like ~2 times more to make (and probably using better cost-reducing strategies), yet still not offer much more than the 360 (IE: PS3 only marginally more powerful or something like that). According to Merrill Lynch, there would be about a $600 difference between the 360 at launch and the PS3 at launch. Even worse, ML seems to think it will take 3 years before Sony could match the 360's production costs (~$340 according to them IIRC). So yeah, I don't put much faith in ML anymore.

You heard it here first: due to high production costs, the PS3 has been delayed to 2009... the same year the Dreamcast gets relaunched.