[Official] Reggie Bush or Someone else -- Vince Young out of running

Yeah, I tend to agree in a general sense. But keep in mind no one else is saying what this guy is saying. So it either indicates he's a genius and knows more than everyone else, or he's out of the loop in terms of NFL opinions.

You can find a scout that will say DeAngelo Williams will be better than Reggie Bush too - doesn't mean you should take it seriously. Scouts need to make names for themselves to move beyond being a scout. The "quick" way to do that is to go against the grain and hope you're right.

 

Even if it is accurate, so what? It is just one scout trying get some exposure.

People havn't seen VY work out. They havn't seen Bush work out, or even officially weighed. Mel Kiper admits every scout has their own opinion right now, based on limited information, and no one can confidently rank the top of the board yet.

What I would like to see from work outs is evidence for or against VY's arm strength and his 40 time, what I'd most like to see from Bush is his ht/wt, 40 time and drills. Based on what I saw on the field I go with VY (I'd be suprised if he is slower than 4.55 or shows sub-par accuracy and strength--but we will hopefully see), but I could be swayed Bush offers a better combination of safety and potential pending workouts of both players. Some of you want to right off VY without even his workout numbers, and that I just can't fathum if you have payed attention to the biggest Texas games of the last 4 years where he personally won them with a combination of legs, arm, mind or composure (SC, OU, OSU, Mich).

Incidently, Vince Young was 147 out of 214 throwing versus Texas 8 opponents with a winning record last year--that is 69% (better than his overall 65%, for reference ML was 66% overall with a better offensive line and with significantly better receivers). 69% is an outstanding percentage against good competion. I don't see how anyone can question VY's accuracy. Arm strength and mechanics, maybe. Capability to run a pro style offense, maybe. But accuracy? I could only see them concluding this if they only watched the VY of his 1st two years at Texas.

 

Yes, the scout who said this is Dan Shonka from www.ourlads.com. Another note is that Lance Zierlin said Shonka's analysis is similar to many scouts he talked to at the Senior Bowl.

 

At least not that we know of. I know that a lot of scouts are saying Cutler is the best prospect of the three. I don't think it shows he's a genius or out of the loop, it just shows that he's probably fallen in love with McNeal as a prospect. It happens a lot.

Yeah, I somewhat agree with that but it's also a quick way to lose your job. The truth is we don't really know until they take an NFL snap.

 

If you're speaking that his analysis of Bush being the consensus #1 , that there isn't clear cut choice as the #1 QB prospect and that the only place that the Young/ Bush debate is even remotely serious is Texas then I would agree with that. If you're saying that most scouts think McNeal is a better prosepct then Young then i would definitely have to see that in print. I know it's early but I haven't even seen Reggie in the first round of a mock draft yet.

 

Here are some Sonka gem's

The Seahawks overcame a rocky start trying to find a new team president early in the off-season .... Unfortunately, I came away a little disappointed in their draft class. They got a few good prospects, but didn't project value very well.....Mississippi's Chris Spencer is one of the most athletic centers to enter the draft in years, but he graded as more of a late second round talent than a first rounder. Spencer needs a lot of work on technique and balance, but should benefit working a year behind veteran Robbie Tobeck.....I did Southern California linebacker Lofa Tatupu on several films and enjoyed watching him, but he's not a second rounder. He grades as a fourth to fifth round talent. Tatupu is very active and shows good burst to the ball, but takes a lot of false steps and takes himself out of a lot of plays. His best attribute is on special teams.

Note both Tatupu and Spencer were on all-rookie teams. Tatupu has probably been THE steal of the draft


I came away a little disappointed with the Titans for the second straight year in the draft...There is no question that West Virginia cornerback Adam Jones is a playmaker - especially as a return man....Most teams including myself had Jones rated no higher than the third best cornerback in this draft. The Titans did a solid job adding young depth at offensive tackle. Although Michael Roos was more of a third rounder, he possesses the upside and natural physical tools to develop into a starter. Roos is tough and has outstanding potential as a drive blocker in the run game. He possesses underrated athletic ability, but faces a steep adjustment to the speed of NFL pass rushers. I also like the potential of Mississippi State's David Stewart. Stewart has a good frame and is a solid run blocker who needs polish in pass protection. Indiana wide receiver Courtney Roby was a reach in the third round, but Tulane's Roydell Williams is an underrated athlete in the fourth round.

Note Pac-Man was better than either Carlos Rogers (really struggled, only started b/c of injury) or Antrell Rolle (though Rolle was injured). Roos started 16 of 16 games. Titans had one of the best drafts, can give Sonka some credit for recognizing Roydell Williams as a keeper

• Purdue quarterback Kyle Orton going to the Bears in the fourth round was one of the best picks in the draft. Orton is a natural pocket passer with the ability to accurately deliver the ball downfield. If Rex Grossman can't stay healthy, Orton will be waiting in the wings.

Note: good call here




Note. Got to give Kiper a heck of lot more credit being on top of things than Shonka, Kiper pegged VY as a top 5 pick before November (regardless of whether you think VY will go overall #1, you can't seriously think he won't go top 5). Shonka seems to be saying much the same things he always had about VY.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/12982270.htm

Posted on Mon, Oct. 24, 2005

The Dolphins are struggling at the quarterback position again, and USC's Matt Leinart might be the only bona fide star coming out next year.

That in mind, The Herald polled draft analysts and NFL personnel executives about the talent available this year in college, including some of the top juniors who could enter next year's draft. Right now, the talent pool is filled with a lot of green water.
''It's not a great group of quarterbacks after the top guy [USC's Matt Leinart],'' said Dan Shonka of Ourlads.com, an NFL and draft analyst site. Shonka spent 14 years as an NFL scout for Washington, Philadelphia and Kansas City. ``I'm just talking about the seniors, because I don't look at the juniors until they come out.''
''I do think a lot of it is instinctive. You've got to do your homework and listen to people, folks on your staff,'' Dolphins general manager Randy Mueller said in September. ``That can help give you a feel toward intangibles and stuff you don't see on film. Quarterback is tough, because if you just measure physical ability, you'd eliminate a lot of good players.''
The initial factors that most scouts look at are accuracy, physical tools and how a quarterback manages a game.
To that end, Leinart looked like the real deal when he led USC's dramatic comeback against Notre Dame on Oct. 15. On the final drive, he not only hit a critical long pass on fourth-and-9, he ran the ball in for the winning score.
PROS AND CONS
Still, there are detractors. His arm strength has been questioned, and even his management at the end of the Notre Dame game brought up issues.
''I like a lot of things about the kid,'' one NFL scout said. ``He's accurate, and he's sharp. He's way smarter than Carson Palmer, and look at what Palmer's doing now with [Cincinnati] -- but he doesn't have Palmer's arm.''
After Leinart, the senior class is loaded with players Shonka believes are all projects.
''I don't think there's another guy [among the seniors] who even gets taken on the first day,'' Shonka said, referring to the first three rounds of the draft.
note: I guess Shonka never heard of Jay Cutler either, pretty much a lock for a mid to early 1st round pick That's not realistic, given what normally happens around the draft in the quarterback-hungry NFL. However, unless there's an influx of juniors, Leinart could be the only one to go in the first round.
Among the juniors, Vince Young of Texas and Brady Quinn of Notre Dame have been the most impressive. The 6-5 Young put himself on the map in a serious way in the Rose Bowl last season when he rushed for 192 yards against Michigan.
Young is a gliding runner who doesn't necessarily run as hard as he does fast. The comparisons to Vick have been constant, but Young is much bigger and stronger. He also has a powerful arm.
But he has an odd throwing motion. Young throws sidearm -- often looking like his passes are below the level of his shoulder. Historically, that is a hard motion to fix and leads to erratic throwing.
But ESPN draftnik Mel Kiper Jr. said recently that if Young declared himself eligible for the draft, he'd be a top-five pick.
Others scoff at that notion but admit Young's overall ability is intriguing. Said Shonka: ``He doesn't read defenses particularly well, and the motion is troubling. There are guys that have had different motions and have made it, but they didn't throw like that.''

 

Thank you.

The fact that some of you think I made up what this scout was saying and more importantly what Lance was saying from his experiences from the senior bowl is hilarous. I don't remember him saying anything about Reggie Mcneal during this interview, perhaps I missed that.

 

I vouch for reggietodd. I heard it all this morning and don't recall them talking about McNeal at all. I could have missed it though. The whole 'McNeal is better than Vince' sounds like something that would have been said before the college season. Lance and Dan both said that the vast majority of people (scouts) say that Bush should be the pick. While this guy did sound a little anti-Vince, Ourlads is a reliable draft service and Lance's remark about the Senior Bowl scouts back him up.

 

The McNeal better than Vince statement stems from a comment he made in a newspaper, not on the radio, he said McNeal CAN be better than Young, not exactly that he is or will be, he thinks McNeal will have an outstanding combine.

 

Kinda like when you wanted greg davis fired and did not think Vince young was a leader. But your opinion is so important

 

You can do this with any scout in the entire NFL, it's pointless.

He was obviously way off on the Seahawks. Did you watch Pac-Man play? He is an amazing return guy but was about as good as Buchanon in coverage. Rogers played well and so did Rolle when they weren't injured. I don't know what games you were watching on them.

Orton still did a decent job as a rookie QB. He did what was asked of him. He wasn't a superstar or even a good QB by any means but i would consider a guy who I could put behind center and win with all season as a rookie a good 4th round pick.

 

Mcneal will have an amazing combine. He has run a 4.26 40 before and has an outstanding arm. He simply regressed this year because of the people and coaches around him.

 

And sleeping with receivers girlfriends.

 

No, not quite:

http://www.statesman.com/sports/content/sports/stories/other/01/22bohls.html?imw=Y

"Write this down," said NFL evaluator Dan Shonka, a former scout with three NFL teams. "Reggie McNeal will be a better pro quarterback than Vince Young. Vince is a good athlete, but he could be a $50 million mistake."

...

"He'll definitely be a first-round pick," Shonka said. "There'll be 32 stupid teams if he isn't."

 

I see... Well, maybe, maybe no...

 

OK. So you've possibly ruined this scout's credibility. I'm not a Mcneal Fan at all.

Now, what do you have to say about Lance saying from his experiences that most other scouts he talked to feel the exact same way?

 

Thanks man. These guys usually outnumber me and do their best to make me look bad, even though I speak the truth!

 

No one wants to make their station lose credibility by claiming this is one scout out of hundreds or thousands whose views aren't reflective of everyone else's. I'm sure Lance did claim something to the effect that "others agree with him" to bring more credibility to his guest... whether he's being completely truthful or if he's engaged in a bit of media sensationalism, however, is an entirely different story.

 

Yeah, you were definitely speaking the truth about Young's five turnovers in a double-digit Texas loss in the Rose Bowl...

 

That part has more sway with me - scouts know a hell of a lot more than I do about football, so if a lot of scouts are having the same concensus, there's probably something to it. I'm not convinced, however, that the debate is only in Texas - it has been on every national sports show on TV, as well as been brought up by national NFL scout types like Mel Kiper. Most people rate ML/RB/VY as the top 3, in some order or another.

I think the RB / VY debate is an interesting one. Both have potential to be game-changing players more so that #1 picks most years. Both also have many more quetsions than #1 picks most years. So there's a lot of risk and a lot of reward.

My personal opinion is that a running back is never worth a #1 pick. Too much money for a position where so much of the success is the O-Line, and too much risk for a position where even a good career is likely to be 5-7 years of peak performance. A franchise should get the #1 overall pick about once every 30 years on average - I want to take a guy that's likely to have an impact for 10+ years on the team, and running backs are the one position that rarely qualifies in that regard.

I think Vince also brings numerous leadership intangibles that seem to be lacking on this team, but who knows how that will translate into the NFL. I think if you can get something good for Carr, you take Vince and trade Carr. If you can't get much for Carr, you trade down and fill several holes on the team. Either way, it also saves you the money of having two #1 picks on your team (most teams don't even have 1). A team like the Texans with so many holes doesn't have that kind of money to commit to 2 players, neither of which are proven to be worth it at this point.