[Official] Reggie Bush or Someone else -- Vince Young out of running

Let's take a look at the top 6 offenses in the NFL this year in terms of points scored:

Seattle - great RB in Alexander, pocket passer with Hasselbeck
Indy - great RB in James, pocket passer with Manning
Giants - great RB in Tiki, pocket passer with Manning
Cincy - great RB in Rudi, pocket passer with Palmer
Chargers - great RB in LT, pocket passer with Brees
Chiefs - two great RBs in Johnson and Holmes, pocket passer with Green

The common link with these top offenses are pocket passers and truly exceptional running backs. In fact, these 6 teams had 6 of the top 7 running backs in terms of yards this year (Portis was at #4).

 

And that Pats won 2 superbowls with atrocious RBs. The Iggles have been the best NFC team over the last half decade or so with a throwing/running QB as their leader and multiple late RB draftes splitting time. McNair and Culpepper got their teams in the playoffs multiple times, sometimes deep.

NFL history, short term (see above, success of Brady and McNabb) and long term, shows an elite QB's trend of leading his team to a superbowl and winning it is a much stronger trend than having an elite RB.

Look at the titles/appearences for Montana-Marino-Elway-Bradshaw-Staubach-Aikman-Farve-Brady-Manning-McNabb versus Payton-Sanders-Smith-OJ-Dickerson-Campbell-Faulk-Dorsett-LT-Edge-Alexander, etc. It is no contest in superbowl and playoff success looking from multiple decades or the last decade.

 

See I'm of the belief that Carr can develop into an elite QB. I think that's where we have a difference of opinion. I do not think that DD is a truly exceptional running back, however. We have a chance to pick up that exceptional running back in Reggie Bush. We need to solidify our O-line through our second round pick and hopefully the Broncos' center or another free agent. I think that's our best course of action as opposed to grabbing a dual threat QB who is probably 3-4 years away from being a competent NFL qb. I think at this point people are so enamored with VY after his Rose Bowl performance (don't forget the horn fans on here were talking **** about USC's defense before the game), that they forget some of his other games like the A&M performance.

 

I'm not sure this shows anything though. Many of those running backs were not considered premier running backs when drafted. Is Rudi Johnson a great running back? Or did he have a great season because of a great O-Line and great QB? And of those six offenses, 3 are led by #1 overall picks at QB that panned out. Being a good running back in today's game is a function of your O-Line and passing game as much as it is any inherent talent in the RB.

There are very few mobile QB's in the NFL. Good ones are probably limited to McNabb and Culpepper, with Vick and Plummer being secondary "decent" ones. Of the 4, they have made 3 conference championship games and 1 superbowl in the last 2 years.

Point being? Small sample size stats can be warped to show whatever you want. There are multiple ways to win in the NFL. Defense (Ravens), offense (Rams), passing (Rams), rushing (Steelers?), all around games (Patriots), etc. You can win with Brett Favre or Trent Dilfer. With Antwoine Smith or Terrell Davis.

 

Sure there are other factors at play. You can't normalize for everything - there are too many variables. However, we have a #1 pick at QB who has been working with a terrible Oline since he got here. Alexander, James, LT, and Larry Johnson were all first round picks, with James going #4 overall and LT going #5 overall. I think it's safe to say they were going to be very good.

Culpepper was possibly the worst QB in the NFL this year. Just horrendous. McNabb also had a very pedestrian year. As an interesting note, both had horrible years following the departure of their best offensive weapons (Moss and TO). Let's give Carr a great weapon and an improved line - I think we'll like the results.

 

Culpepper was hurt in game 1 with a knee injury (he reinjured it later in the season). McNabb, also, was hurt in game 1 of the season.

I agree that Carr may become a good or great QB. I don't agree that you need to spend a #1 pick on a running back, such that you're paying #1 pick money to two players, one of which may or may not pan out and the other at a position where his success will be more based on the O-Line than his own skills.

I think Vince has the ability to be better than Carr. So if you can trade Carr for decent value (Ricky Williams, for example) and take Vince Young, you do it. I'd rather find a RB elsewhere than using a #1 overall pick. And based on Bush's less-than-spectacular success against fast defenses, I'm not convinced he'll be anything more than an occasional highlight reel in the NFL, and highlight reels don't win games, unfortunately.

 

Well, ok fine, you're entitled to your opinion, but let's not forget that 4 of the top 6 offenses in the league had #1 pick RBs. Trading for Ricky Williams? I don't think McNair would want somebody of his character and history of quitting on the team.

 

Let me change a few things:

Just showing it works both ways.

 

Swing and a miss. For that scenario to work you'd have to think that DD can develop into an exceptional RB.

 

They had first round pick RBs, not #1 pick RBs. I'm not opposed to taking a RB at the bottom of the first round or top of the 2nd. I just don't think you invest #1 pick type money into a position that is so fluky in terms of who's good and who's not.

Two of the best rushing offenses in the league (Pitt, Denver) have a bunch of random scrubs at running back. Willie Parker wasn't even drafted.

 

To expand on this, I understand if people think Carr is the guy for the team. But in that scenario, I trade down. If you feel the team needs a running back, you trade to the middle-bottom of the first round and get DeAngelo Williams or someone like that. If you feel the team needs defense, you also trade down to whereever your impact defensive player is. You just don't invest a #1 pick into a running back (any running back, let alone one with a number of questions as to his viability as an everydown back).

 

The guy had 976 rushing yards in 11 games this year. If you extrapolate to a full 16-game slate, it translates into 1,420 yards. Plus, DD had over 1,000 rushing yards the past 2 years before this injury-plagued season. Did I mention that he had possibly the worst O-line in NFL history for help?

I genuinely believe DD can be a good back. That's one of the reasons I think the Texans should trade down.

 

Insert reminder OC for one of those teams is now our head coach. Carry on.

 

I'm not leaning towards this team getting Reggie Bush... but the biggest problem I have with DD is that he's missed a few games every year he's been playing.

He's also got 3-4 years now worth of experience on him... and the average RB starts to show a drop-off around this time, rather than getting better, simply because of all the hits they take. Remember... Marshall Faulk was once the league MVP, but his "prime" only consisted of 3 years.

In the end, its just another reason why drafting a RB with the #1 overall pick is FAR more risky than going with a mobile/athletic/DURABLE QB.

 

If you think Carr is odds on better than Vince Young, taking Reggie Bush or trading down makes a ton of sense. Once we disagree on this, we will of course disagree on all further actions.

Personally--based on the college resumes and what Carr has shown so far, I think VY is a better prospect than Carr right now, regardless of the fact VY is 4 years younger. I'd rather tie say 9-10 mil a year for VY + late 1st/early 2nd draftee (e.g., TE-Lewis, 2WR-Moss, 2WR-Hagan) than like 15-18 mil year for RBush/Carr--particularly when the Texans have a well above average RB and great young return man at excellent contracts.

McNabb, McNair, Culpepper, Roethlesburger--all were majorly contributing before year 2 and only Big Ben isn't a runner/passer. Only McNabb had even been playing major D1 ball, and he wasn't in a conventional offense just as VY wasn't. Expecting VY to be a starter next year is not that unrealistic. Being ready this year, yeah, few have been ready (Big Ben, Marino?). I'd take a two year with two thick (06 & 07) draft period to build around VY.

Michigan last year

Ohio State this year (anyone question their defense? They will have a minimum of 4 defensive draftees going in the first two rounds of the upcoming draft)

OU this year

nation's leader in passing efficiency

1st ever 3000/1000 QB

I'll bet Montana and Elway had the occasional bad game too (A&M)

Heck of a lot more of a resume than the Rose Bowl, that was just the capper on the ultimate (pre-NFL) stage.

 

Oh, like Tiki Barber, right?

 

Has he really gotten that much better, or just simply became a bigger part of the offensive game-plan, with better run-blocking (noticeable once Coughlin took over).

DD already was a pretty big part of the gameplan... he gets a ton of receptions thanks to the dumpoff, and Caper's conservative "run first" approach got him a ton of carries.

I'm just saying that DD has some mileage on him... and I'd venture to guess that if this team ever goes far (which won't be in the next 3 years), they'll have somebody else as their main RB.

But once again... I'm not saying to draft RB first.

 

I don't understand this at all. You would trade down to get a LESSER runningback? Unless you think Williams is actually better or equal or you thinK Bush doesn't fit the system then I wouldn't do this. And Williams has more questions than Bush, that's why he's rated lower.

 

Seems to me like the quick, light runningbacks last longer than the big inside bruising runningbacks. Bush will be able to avoid contact more and lengthen his career.

 

Yes, I would. IMO, the difference between Bush and a Williams isn't worth the ridiculous extra cost you're going to have to pay for the #1 pick. Running backs aren't worth top pick money - you're talking about millions of dollars extra when both guys are likely to be successful with a good line, and neither will be worth anything without one. So if you really need a running back, get one late in the first round that you don't have to pay much for. AND, pick up more picks to fill the other 500 holes in this team.

This team has too many holes to be paying both Carr and Bush top pick money. To attract the free agents this team will need to improve (it can't be done just through the draft), it needs $$. The defense is the worst in the NFL, we need a new O-Line, probably a 2nd receiver, a TE, etc ...