[Official] Reggie Bush or Someone else -- Vince Young out of running

IC2000 · Jan 20, 2006

Desert Scar said:

So was Randle-El. I'd bet even money if McNeal makes it in the NFL most of his plays are not as a QB. McNeal's size and durability make him a better candidate to play another position.

What we do know by all accounts VY was by far the most difficult player in college football to contain, and despite the Heisman voting, when the season completely unfolded he was clearly the best college football player, not even close. "Athletically he is a freak and he threw the ball on the money all game long with a NC on the line, he was basically impossible to stop." These comments were essentially what Bush's teammate (Leinart) said about Young.

Yes Bush is better, way better. But for 15 runs and 4 receptions and maybe or return or two the difference between what Bush can do and another part time back who excelles in the open field and also runs good routes no where near justifies giving up an overall #1 pick.

If all you want is a compliment to Davis, just find a guy like the Chargers found in Darren Sproles using a 4th round pick. If you draft Bush you expect him to carry the ball 75% of the time and be in the game a minimum of 75% of the offense plays. If you are not confident Bush is ready to do this, that is a very unwise use of a #1 overall pick.

I would certainly say you don't have near the evidence you have with Faulk, Dorsett or Sanders. He could be a feature back in the NFL, but it is a much bigger gamble than it was with those guys.

It would be a shocker if Bush, Leinart and VY didn't take the top 3 spots in some order, sure. Personally, IMO the safest pick is Leinart. In terms of RBs,
I would say right now DeAngelo Williams is every bit as likely to be a workhorse NFL running back as Reggie Bush, I'd say at least even money Williams gets more NFL carries in their careers. But Bush's upside is greater if he continues to develop and becomes an excellent between the tackles runner. It is kind of like comparing Leinart and VY. Leinart has the stronger college resume as an NFL type QB--safer pick at this point, but VY upside is a lot higher. IMO when you are starting at the bottom you have to go for upside.

I think this is reasonable IF when you evaluate Bush and VY in house you think both are overvalued/overrated. If you think Bush has a low likelihood of developing into a Faulk or LT AND VY has much bigger questions than say McNair or McNabb--trade the pick. But if you think you have the next Faulk, LT, McNabb or McNair--it is alomost impossible to get that kind of value in a trade and you take that player.

I disagree. Everything I have seen on the field leads me to more question whether Bush's game will translate as well to the pros as VY.

The #1 question for VY is whether he has the capability to have at least an average understanding of NFL offense's and NFL defenses for an NFL QB. The #2 question is does he have at least an average NFL arm. He is so exceptional in other areas (leadership, compusure, maturity, confidence, size, athleticsm) if he is merely average in these respects I think you have your #1 pick. Based on the kinds of effortless reads he made and the dissection of USC's defense using his arm and brain as well as his feet I think he will come out OK in these respects (let's not forget OSU defense, OU defense or Michigans defense either). But I am sure the Texan scouts can get a handle on this better than I once they get him in house for an evaluation.

For Bush, major questions are his pure running ability in tight space and between the tackles, degree of instinctive feel for blocks, blocking ability/potential versus NFL blitzing linebackers, and durability when used as a workhorse back. Having an amazing burst as he does, being strong for a college 200lb back, and being great in the open field no where near eradicates these questions. Further, glipses of his play and reduced dominance against fast college defenses like Texas, California and OU isn't the greatest of signs. Kind of the opposite with VY, who looked every bit as phenomenal and putting an even bigger stamp on the game when his opponents were faster and better.

Right now the evidence based on the consistency they imposed their capabilities on the field, particularly versus more pro-like teams and how their coaches used them, favors VY. So I am not at all ready to say VY's concerns and questions are at another level higher than Bush's. Certainly not at this point, without workout evidence from the combine or pro-day workouts working against VY. That is why every serious scout should really say it is a crapshoot for the order of top 3 picks until workout results are available.
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I will bet you whatever you want that he is picked on the first day as a QB

Desert Scar · Jan 20, 2006

Interesting tidbits on Wonderlic scores for some notably drafted QBs:

McNabb: 12 (2nd time) & 16
McNair: 15
Culpepper: 15 (supposed real score before coaching)
A. Brooks: 17
Vinny T: 18
Vick: 20
T. Couch: 22
Brent Farve: 22
Trent Dilfer: 22
M. brunell: 22
David Carr: 24
Roethlisberger: 25
Pennington: 25
Leftwich:25
Palmer: 26
Kyle Boller: 27
Drew Brees: 28
Cade McKnown: 28
M. Hasselbeck: 29
M. Bulger: 29
Kerry Collins: 30
Quincy Carter: 30
Harrington: 32
P. Ramsey: 32
T. Brady: 33
D. Bledsoe: 37
Akili Smith: 37
Eli Manning: 39
Brian Griese: 39
Drew Henson: 42

I don't know about you, but I would use it as a very weak marker of "football inteligence" at best. If McNabb and McNair can handle a playbook, I don't see why Vince Young couldn't no matter what the score. Akili, Eli, Griese & Henson's 37+ scores havn't seemed to translated into NFL quarterbacking inteligence either. Overall, it won't hurt VY to have a decent Wonderlic (21+) or even an excellent score (30+), but it isn't going to be a big factor one way or the other.

Unless the Texans or scouts have some other decent test of VY's ability to run a pro offense a whole lot better than a Wonderlic (maybe there is no such accurate test, maybe you only know from real experience), the primary question I have left that can be answered via individual workouts concerns the type of throws he can make. If VY arm tests out average to above-average for an NFL QB and any mechanical adjustments relatively easy to fix, he should be the 1st pick. If his arm is considerably above average--with this athleticism, composure, instincts, size, and leadership as already known strengths--this guy should be slam dunk the #1 pick.

pgabriel · Jan 20, 2006

I thought Pennington was really high up there. He's supposed to be very smart.

gr8-1 · Jan 20, 2006

Desert Scar said:

I don't know about you, but I would use it as a very weak marker of "football inteligence" at best.
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But you don't hate everything related or associated with UT.

leroy · Jan 20, 2006

hoang17 said:

you have to go through 2 years of eligibility in the NCAA level before being eligible to declare for the NFL Draft.
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Rocketman95 said:

You have to have just completed your junior year or redshirt sophomore year.
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Technically, the rule is that you must be at least 3 years removed from when you were scheduled to graduate high school.

SamFisher · Jan 20, 2006

Desert Scar said:

Interesting tidbits on Wonderlic scores for some notably drafted QBs:
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Dan Marino had a 12, I think.

pgabriel · Jan 20, 2006

SamFisher said:

Dan Marino had a 12, I think.
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that's funny because even though I like Dan Marino as an analyst, he's no where near as well-spoken as Collingsworth and Carter on HBO

reggietodd · Jan 20, 2006

The rose bowl is on right now on espn classic. I'm going to watch it again with an open mind. When I originally watched it, I was in a crowded sports bar so I didn't see much.

Just saw Bush's lateral, he made a sweet cut to break that one, if the guy he pitched it too would have actually caught it he woulda took it to the house.

Young just made a sweet throw across the field, don't remember that one.... very nice.

JumpMan · Jan 20, 2006

This thread has convinced me of two things, one Vince Young should not be the first pick, and two Reggie Bush should not be the first pick, thanks a lot. I'd hate to be the Texans right now...

Desert Scar · Jan 20, 2006

gr8-1 said:

But you don't hate everything related or associated with UT.
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Different guy maybe.

SamFisher said:

Dan Marino had a 12, I think.
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Just further shows there is a slim correspondence between the Wonderlic and football-relevant inteligence.

My point on this is unless there is a much better test than the Wonderlic of VY's mental capacity to run an NFL offense and make the right reads versus NFL defensive coverages that the scouts and the Texans have, the best guide on this is from his field performance during the stretch of games since he became the full time starter and that includes games versus highly respected coordinators and scheme at SC, OU, OSU and Michigan.

I am still interested in combine-like results on VY and RB, but unless some really surprising things come out in favor of Bush (legit 4.3 type 40, extrodinarily strong for his size, incredible agility and receiving skills/instincts) and against Young (weak arm, hopeless mechanics, he is only familar with incredibly simple reads as a QB) no doubt from the field performance versus elite comp I would go with Young. So I am open enough to leave the door cracked a little for Bush, but it would take a lot for me not to stay VY should go #1.

bigtexxx · Jan 20, 2006

SamFisher said:

Dan Marino had a 12, I think.
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Marino had a 16. Randall Cunningham had a 15.

Sam, did you know that there is a website that allows you to search the internet for information? Here it is: www dot google dot com

Blatz · Jan 20, 2006

I don't know if this is real or not, just got it in an email and thought it was funny.

Sorry if it has been posted.

swilkins · Jan 20, 2006

JumpMan said:

This thread has convinced me of two things, one Vince Young should not be the first pick, and two Reggie Bush should not be the first pick, thanks a lot. I'd hate to be the Texans right now...
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Then do your own research and draw your own conclusion.

gucci888 · Jan 21, 2006

Didn't see this posted anywhere:

He's got them talking
Can a QB who doesn't have a classic throwing motion and is used to the shotgun make it in the NFL? Yes, say the experts

By JOHN MCCLAIN
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle

The Vince Young-Reggie Bush debate officially heated up Thursday when the NFL announced the list of the 48 underclassmen who have entered the April draft.

The Texans have the top pick. They don't need a quarterback or running back, but Young and Bush are such special prospects that the Texans probably will draft one of them.

Once Denver offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak is named the Texans' head coach and the evaluation process intensifies, the Young-Bush debate will become full-blown for the fans and media.

Young, who played at Madison High School and led the University of Texas to the national title this year, has been campaigning like a politician to become a Texan. The Texans are listening, but they've got three months before they have to make a decision.

"He's a great athlete who's been very productive," Texans general manager Charley Casserly said of Young. "He's a tremendous runner. The thing he's got going is that leadership and competitiveness."

While most league personnel contacted by the Chronicle believe Young will be a star in the NFL, some scouts point out that he primarily played in the shotgun formation with the Longhorns and grew accustomed to not taking snaps under center. Others note that he does not have a classic throwing motion.

Regarding the first point, it should be noted that NFL quarterbacks such as Steve McNair, Byron Leftwich and Drew Brees played in a shotgun formation in college.

"I don't think that's going to be a problem for him," Casserly said. "There are some good quarterbacks in our league who worked out of a spread offense in college.

"As the season went on, you could see that he became more comfortable with their offense. You could see him playing with more and more confidence."

As the evaluation process continues, the Texans will spend a lot of time with Young.

"I haven't spoken with him yet, but I will," Casserly said.

Titans a possibility
If the Texans pass up Young, he could end up with the Tennessee Titans, who have the third pick behind the New Orleans Saints.

"One of the things that impressed me so much was the way he took that team on his shoulders and carried them to wins in some big games against teams like Ohio State and Southern Cal," Titans director of player personnel Rich Snead said. "When the games were on the line, he made big plays. And the bigger the game, the better he played."

Young and McNair have been friends since McNair played for the Oilers. Last year, the Titans quarterback worked with Young on his passing.

"He's got an awkward motion, but I wouldn't change it," Snead said. "Young shortened his release. He used to throw like Randall Cunningham. He still doesn't have a perfect release like John Elway or Dan Marino, but not many do.

"Another thing that really stands out is his movement skills. A guy with his size who can move like that doesn't need to be as accurate. He can move to buy time until a receiver breaks free."

C.O. Brocato, the Titans' national coordinator of college scouting, has been evaluating players in Texas for almost 35 years.

Instincts lauded
"Young's got sound football intelligence and great instincts," Brocato said. "He's a great kid, too, a real team guy who's respected by his coaches and teammates."

Young improved dramatically as a passer from his sophomore to junior seasons.

"He's a great athlete with a tremendous upside, but he needs to work on his passing game," Brocato said. "He's worked real hard to improve as a passer. They did a good job of coaching him. They gave him good game plans.

"You could see that improvement over the course of the season. His touch on short passes got better. He became more accurate on his deep balls, although he threw some up for grabs, and those tall receivers went up to get them. He still forced some balls, but all quarterbacks do.

"His pocket presence has improved, too, and a lot of that's instinctive. This season, he saw the whole field a lot better. And he's learned to look at second and third receivers more."

Running gets riskier
Young won't be able to rely on his running ability in the NFL as much as he did in the Big 12.

"He's a super runner, but I worry about his straight-up style," Brocato said. "He's going to be running against NFL players who'll try to knock his head off.

"He's got great feet. He can make you miss. Even though he's almost 6-5, he's got quick feet. A defensive player can be bearing down on him, and with a flick of one foot, Vince will shake him. He changes direction so quick."

Green Bay Packers scout Alonzo Highsmith, who played at the University of Miami and was the Oilers' top pick (third overall) in the 1987 draft, has watched Young develop since high school.

"I sat next to Vince at a football banquet, and I was impressed with him back then," Highsmith said. "I liked the way he carried himself and the way he treated people."

A league of their own
Highsmith puts Young and Bush on a different plane than other prospects.

"Like Reggie, Vince is a unique talent," Highsmith said. "People talk about his mechanics, but hey, Arnold Palmer didn't have a perfect swing, did he? If you're 10-of-10 sitting on your butt, what does it matter? We see guys every Sunday with good mechanics who can't win.

"The ball gets to where it's going in a hurry, and he's very accurate. And he's the most accurate when the team needs him the most."

Ask any scout about Young, and the first thing mentioned is what a leader he is.

"Since I've been involved in college football, I've never seen anyone with his leadership ability," Highsmith said. "It's a natural thing, but there's no reason he can't continue to be this type of leader in the NFL. It's just going to take some time."

john.mcclain@chron.com
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http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/fb/texansfront/3599786.html

reggietodd · Jan 21, 2006

bigtexxx said:

Marino had a 16. Randall Cunningham had a 15.

Sam, did you know that there is a website that allows you to search the internet for information? Here it is: www dot google dot com
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freakin classic post bigtexx. u da man.

giddyup · Jan 21, 2006

Cool... an Alonzo Hightsmith "sighting."

Makes you drool for Young doesn't it?

HillBoy · Jan 21, 2006

If the Texans do take Young, I'd love to revist this thread in two years to see how many folks will still be on the bandwagon if VY has become Randall Cunningham part deux.

On another note, just imagine how great will things be around here if the Titans take Bush and in 2 years THEY are in the playoffs while the Texans with VY are spinning their wheels going nowhere? The same folks clamoring for VY now will be out in front of Reliant throwing their own wood on the Vince Young bonfire.

I'm not saying that VY will be a bust. What I'm trying to point out is the fact that he represents a huge gamble. If the Texans take him and his game fails to translate to the next level, the franchise could face a major setback of 6 to 8 years. One of the prime reasons the Oilers were an NFL joke for so long is that they consistently (like clockwork) made bad personnel decisions in the draft and about coaching & personnel (sound familiar anyone?). This past season saw the Texans doing their best Houston Oiler impersonation. Let's just hope it was a one time limited engagement and not a sign of things to come...

stevel · Jan 21, 2006

I agree I think taking VY is a risk in that we have a QB (that I believe) can get the job done with some help and proper coaching. I would like to see us either take Bush or trade to get extra picks. If we take VY I would not be upset, but I hope is college success will translate to the NFL. QBs are always so risky. If we were to trade the top pick I would love to see us get a first rounder next year as part of the package, then if Carr doesn't perform we can get Quinn or perhaps Adrian Peterson. You could trade Carr without taking as big a cap hit as well.

CriscoKidd · Jan 21, 2006

HillBoy said:

if VY has become Randall Cunningham part deux.
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you say that like it's a bad thing.

KingCheetah · Jan 21, 2006

reggietodd said:

freakin classic post bigtexx. u da man.
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[Official] Reggie Bush or Someone else -- Vince Young out of running

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[Official] Reggie Bush or Someone else -- Vince Young out of running

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