[Official] Reggie Bush or Someone else -- Vince Young out of running

He still might be there at 33. If not, why would we trade next years #1. If they really wanted him, I'm sure we could swing some type of Babin deal, trade our second and one of our 3rds to move up a few spots. Where have you seen anything about next years draft? That first rounder next year could be too valuable (Hopefully not a top 10 pick, but could be) just to trade for a maybe late round 1st?

 

I'm sure they are going to use 33 for OL.

Just trying to stir things up. I keep hearing that the CB position is loaded this year and that next years draft isn't strong. I personally think it might be worth their while to pick up a CB in the late first round this year for next years #1.

If we don't pick up a decent CB in FA, a 3rd rounder might not be good enough to start.

 

My opinion is that is a very bad idea. Every year new prospects emerge and impress. The bet a late 1st this year (say 25ish) is better than the Texans pick next year is poor.

One can't in any fairness pencil the Texans ahead of any AFC team at this point (though I defintely like the Texans complete roster much better than the 49ers, I can say that with confidence). Most likely they won't be the worst AFC squad because of regression to the mean--but it would be a big surprise for them not to fall in the bottom 3-4.

Even if the Texans infuse the offense majorly this year (which seems the plan), they have solidly (evidenced by yards & points) the league worst defense and a very tough schedule because of the division they play in and their 06 NFC draw (toughest top to bottom NFC division they could draw). The Texans are very unlikely to draft an impact defensive player (their first rounder is 90%+ sure for Bush) and have not signed one either. They will be favored in very few games, if the Texans leap a couple AFC teams--and many other AFC bottom feeders last year like Cleve, Raiders, and Tenn have made probably more impactfull FA moves so far, that will be a step forward. Even if Bush was ROY overall I'd say 75% chance the Texans pick next year is between #2 and #10, not good to give up picks like that.

In general the Texans should look for great opps to trade down for more future picks, not the other way around. Focus on offense this year, defense next year, and aim to be middle of the AFC pack or better for the 07 season.

 

The draft is deep this year. I honestly don't see them trading down (at least the first 4 picks). Those 2 3rd rounders could be very significant.

I'm hoping that we can get a decent CB in FA, but there have been no rumors. I hope Faggins gets back on track long enough to allow the young players develop.

 

Haven't seen this posted yet...

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5483606

Houston Texans
Free Agency Review

A new coaching staff with plans to use a 4-3 defense and revamp a mediocre offense has led to as active a free agency as anyone in football.

Off-season breakdown

The Texans aggressively targeted their areas of need and filled nearly all of the seemingly gaping holes they faced just a month ago. The switch to the 4-3 seemed to leave Houston short on defensive ends and middle linebackers. To remedy this problem, they brought in Anthony Weaver and Sam Cowart.

These signings are polar opposites in style. Weaver is an up-and-coming defensive end whose best days are in front of him. Cowart is an aging linebacker who will likely prove to be a disappointment.

Weaver is a physical specimen who has played inside in the past or as a defensive end in the 3-4. Given the plethora of pass-rushing ends the Texans have, including newly signed N.D. Kalu, he is an excellent addition. The Texans ranked 30th against the run according to Football Outsiders' advanced DVOA metric. With the Weaver signing, that will not be the case this year. (DVOA and all of Football Outsiders' other advanced statistics are explained here.)

Cowart, however, is a low-impact move. He was phased out in New York two years ago, and the idea that he will be productive at age 31 is a little far-fetched. Still, he provides at least an adequate middle linebacker, and if Kailee Wong proves he is better in the middle, the Texans have simply bought an insurance policy.

Offensively, the Texans have been just as active. They signed Mike Flanagan to shore up their offensive line. He will slide in at center pushing Steve McKinney to guard. Incumbent Milford Brown has moved on to the Cardinals. Flanagan is getting $9 million over three years, pretty big money for a 32-year old center. The Texans have now added four of their five starting offensive linemen through free agency. New England and Indianapolis have offensive lines exclusively filled with people who never played for another team.

The Texans have also revamped their offensive skill position players. Gone are Corey Bradford and Jabar Gaffney. Now arriving are Eric Moulds, Kevin Walter, and Jeb Putzier. Putzier is the most intriguing signing. David Carr has never had a decent receiving option at tight end in his career. Obviously head coach Gary Kubiak is familiar with Putzier from their time in Denver, and Kubiak should be able to use Putzier effectively.

But it is hard to see how the wide receiver moves substantially improve the Texans. Walter is an unproven commodity with 30 career catches. Eric Moulds may be a big name, but his best days are well behind him. Moulds last posted a positive DVOA in 2000. He will be 33 this season, and he has a total of 10 touchdowns in the past three seasons.

Draft Preview

The Texans' off-season has made it abundantly clear they are interested in winning sooner rather than later. Cowart, Flanagan, and Moulds are all players past their prime brought in for the immediate future. This win-now strategy makes it clear that any Vince Young talk is just bluster, and they are drafting Reggie Bush with the first overall pick.

The first overall pick is sometimes considered a curse because of the massive bonus paid out to an unproven player. Recent history questions this assumption. From 1996-2004, all but one of the teams with the first overall pick have made the playoffs within four years. That one team, of course, is the Texans.

Still, the Texans have huge offensive line problems, and the possibility of getting D'Brickashaw Ferguson or Winston Justice plus additional picks has to be intriguing. Unfortunately, the signing of Drew Brees by New Orleans means that teams interested in Matt Leinart or Young can trade up to the second spot. So, while trading down would be a sound move for a team with multiple needs, they are unlikely to get fair value.

So, Bush it is. Comparisons to Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders, and Gale Sayers seem to be coming from everywhere. Bush is a special talent, but those are some of the greatest players of all-time. The Texans cannot practically think that Bush offers more than those players.

As an interesting exercise, look at how those players' teams fared in their first five years after the NFL draft. Those three players were the second, third, and fourth overall selection of the draft, meaning they came to equally un-talented teams:

Faulk: 32-48
Sanders: 40-40
Sayers: 29-38-3

These numbers are somewhat shocking and should make Texans' fans keep their expectations in check. During these five-year periods, these three great backs made a combined 12 Pro Bowls, so their production was clearly not the problem. The simple truth is that a running back is only so valuable.

Those running backs were replacing Roosevelt Potts, Garry James, and Jon Arnett respectively. Bush will be replacing Domanick Davis, who has averaged over 1000 yards a season in his three years. He also is similar in size and style to Bush, making Davis, one of the Texans' better players, completely extraneous next season. Is Bush going to be better than Davis? Certainly, but even if Bush is historically good, the improvement will only be worth so much.

After the first round, the Texans have the first pick of the second round and the first two picks of the third round. They should be praying that Eric Winston falls to the second round which would allow them to finally draft a talented offensive tackle, but it isn't likely to happen. In the third round, they should look to upgrade a secondary that is short on quality players besides Dunta Robinson.

 

Again, haven't seen this posted either

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/michael_silver/04/14/young/index.html

"The trouble with you is the trouble with me. You've got two good eyes but you still don't see...."
-- Grateful Dead, "Casey Jones"

Back when he was at UCLA, my father took a final exam in which the professor presented only a single hypothetical question requiring a yes or no answer, with the addendum, "If yes, explain."

Reasoning that the basic setup of the query begged for an affirmative response, each of my dad's classmates began scribbling furiously -- but my father simply sat at his desk and stared at the test. After a couple of minutes he went with his gut, wrote "No" in his blue book and, to the amazement of his fellow students, walked out of the room and headed straight to Santa Anita to bet on the Daily Double.

It was a hell of a gamble, and it spoke to a basic premise that applies to the NFL's bizarre courtship of former Texas quarterback Vince Young: If the available evidence tells you something is so, there's no need to overthink the question.

Or, to put it another way: Why do so many teams at or near the top of the NFL draft seem to be going to such great lengths to talk themselves out of picking Young?

Yeah, I know, Reggie Bush is fantastic, and his fellow ex-USC backfieldmate, Matt Leinart, is a ballsy leader who's probably going to be a heck of an NFL player. And while I can't say I've watched a whole lot of North Carolina State football recently, I'm sure 6-foot-7 defensive end Mario Williams has the potential to be a pass-rushing beast for some lucky team.

I'm also well aware that at the combine, Young reportedly had a subpar showing on the Wonderlic test, the same faithful measuring stick of intelligence that rated Ryan Leaf 11 points ahead of Dan Marino. And no, Young does not fit the traditional drop-back profile of a classic NFL quarterback, and he'll certainly have to adjust to the speed and complexity of pro defenses and may take some lumps in the process.

Fine. All of those points are valid. Now let me start by offering a two-word rebuttal: Rose Bowl.

Oh yeah, remember that game? My new friend LenDale White does -- more on our burgeoning relationship later -- and the ultra-confident former USC running back is still haunted by the sight of Young snatching a national title from the Trojans by the sheer force of his talent, will and poise.

"What can you honestly say about a kid that single-handedly beat 'SC in the national championship game?" White asks. "I don't know what he scored on a Wonderlic test, but I know when you put him in pads he'll produce for you. He ran a 4.5 [in the 40-yard-dash], but he was running circles around us. How could you not want him?"

More specifically, since they are already on the clock, how could the Houston Texans not want him?

Granted, Texans general manager Charley Casserly knows more about football in a nitrous-oxide-induced haze than I do after a bottle of ginkgo biloba. That said, let me break down the situation as I see it.

• The Texans currently have a quarterback, David Carr, who has been the team's starter since Houston made him the No. 1 overall pick three years ago. Carr's play has been underwhelming, partly because he continually gets pummeled in the pocket -- which may or may not be a reflection of the team's dubious offensive line -- and partly because some of his receivers have trouble getting open. Or, perhaps, Carr holds onto the ball too long and simply isn't very good. At this point in Carr's career, even a certain former Texas governor might not be convinced that staying the course is the most prudent option.

• If a team has trouble protecting its quarterback, Young would seem to be the ideal person to put behind center while the line gets it together. If anyone seems capable of literally learning on the fly, this is the guy.

• Sure, you say, it all sounds great, but would Young be embraced by the football-obsessed locals? Yes, he was the man in Austin, but this is the big city, and how in the world would a kid from ... oh, right, Young is from Houston. I'm guessing he might be able to fit in nicely with this otherwise faceless franchise.

I'm sure there are countless people with stopwatches and stat packs and swelling Internet blogs who can tell me all about Young's deficiencies, but all I know is every time I watched the guy play, he was amazing when it counted most. Yeah, he ran a lot at key moments, but he also made huge plays with his arm, like the sweet touchdown pass he threw to beat Ohio State at the start of last season. And he displayed every intangible quality that a quarterback possibly can in a very protracted period of time. Whatever "it" is -- toughness, cool under fire, a penchant for clutch play -- Young definitely has it.

People like to compare him to Michael Vick or Randall Cunningham, but the guy he really reminds me of is Steve Young -- a breathtaking runner who is as capable of bulling through defenders as he is of blowing by them, a deft touch-passer with an outrageously untapped upside, a once-in-a-generation talent whose skills are too blatant to be ignored.

OK -- and I know this will crush some of you -- let's forget about me for a second. Instead, let's ask the opinion of a pure drop-back passer, Cleveland Browns quarterback Trent Dilfer. He said, when discussing Young (Vince, not Steve) the day before the NFC Championship Game, "Can he run an NFL offense? No. And you know what -- who cares? If you get a guy like that on your team, you change the offense. It would be bold, and this league is very resistant to change, but it would be awesome and he'd be a star."

A few days ago I spoke to a longtime scout for an NFC team, a film junkie who tends to be skeptical by nature. When Young's name came up, he instantly lapsed into a love sonnet that caught me off-guard.

"I'm telling you," he said, "this guy's John Elway. All those people saying he won't be good, what are they thinking? He's a rare passer -- the guy can be on the run, under pressure and flip the ball on a line. You watch him do these things and it goes on and on and on. Normally, if you watch a guy on film over and over again, he gets a little less attractive than what you'd thought. This guy gets better.

"His poise is just incredible, and he's so explosive. There's a reason Texas averaged 50 points a game. When they got the ball to the 30-yard line, he scored, period. He may not have the greatest test score, but he definitely has the leadership skills to compensate."

It should be pointed out that this scout is a huge Bush fan. "Bush is terrific," he said. "But if you've got the Number 1 pick, do you take Barry Sanders or John Elway?"

That, my friends, is a no-brainer, and when I posed the same question to my father last night, he didn't hesitate to give me the correct answer.

The man does have a track record: Forty-five years ago, he scribbled two letters on a final exam and got the only A in the class.

 

Wow. That is some damning evidence against Carr, IMO. Let's look at the #1 picks during that time:

1996: Keyshawn Johnson, WR
1997: Orlando Pace, OT
1998: Peyton Manning, QB
1999: Tim Couch, QB
2000: Courtney Brown, DE
2001: Michael Vick, QB
2002: David Carr, QB
2003: Carson Palmer, QB
2004: Eli Manning, QB

Of them, 6 were QBs (66%). Only Carr hasn't made the playoffs. And this list includes Cleveland, another expansion team in 1999 (so there goes that argument).

 

this looks really good for the Texans. i'm concerned about the QB spot for us, though. Whereas seemingly every other position has capable, and even good backups, the Texans have Dave Ragone [!!] and Sage Rosenfels [!!] as Carr's backup.

i'm not saying that we should take Vince. he's good, but you NEVER pass up on someone like Reggie Bush. rather, after combing through these 4 rounds of picks, i noticed that Reggie McNeal hadn't been picked yet. McNeal could be a bada$s QB, and, b/c he's just such a great athlete, there are talks that he could double as a receiver.

Considering how many positions we've filled/bolstered through FA, I say we pick up Reggie McNeal to backup Carr. There are subtle differences between he and Vince, but if we were to come away from this draft with Reggie Bush and Reggie McNeal among our picks, instead of just Vince Young, we will definitely be a force in the future.

I don't mean to start a McNeal vs. Young debate, or even an Aggies vs. Longhorns debate. i'm merely suggesting that, given how well we've done in FA to address our needs, it would be advantageous for us to use a later-round pick on Reggie McNeal to backup David Carr, just in case.

it won't hurt. i'd rather pick him up and evaluate the unlimited possibilities of combinations than pass on him, and regret the lost opportunity.

i mean come on - when you're talking upside and when you're looking at how much the Texans are gung ho about improving at every spot, would you really have more confidence in Reggie McNeal as Carr's back-up, or in Sage Rosenfels and Dave Ragone????? Come on, man.

 

We just signed Sage Rosenfels for big money to back up Carr, so no Reggie for backup QB guaranteed.

 

Is it really THAT big a no brainer? Considering Barry would be all time rushing leader etc if he had stayed around a little longer

 

Almost as subtle as the differences between my post-up game and Hakeem's.

 

Elway couldn't win the big one until they got TD.

 

yes i realize that we just recently signed Rosenfels, but i don't think drafting him in the 4th or 5th round would be a bad investment, considering how, in two years, i think carr's contract might be coming off. if you're not giving up much, why not take a chance on him?

and yes, rimrocker, i agree that many people have varying opinions on the differences between Reggie Mc and Vince. some ppl say that McNeal can't hold Vince's jock, whereas there are others that point out the injuries, sh1tty OL, bad coaching, and overall scarcity of offensive options that McNeal had at A&M. no one denies the talent he has, and the ability he has displayed on many an occasion. however, naturally, it's more of a gray matter [and sports talk fodder] to discuss who's better, and who will be better.

that being said, i think our FAgency performance gives us the leeway to invest a 4th or 5th round pick in Reggie McNeal.

 

4th - We have the first pick in the 4th round - no way
5th - we dont have a 5th round pick
6th - I'd take a chance

 

good points. if we can't take him with one of our picks, maybe we could trade one of our picks from next year's draft [4th, 5th, or 6th rounds] for him.

i think it'd be worth it. he's of that dual-threat QB ilk that we don't have on the team. even if he's not starting, it'd be good to have his QB-running-ability as an option.

 

Reggie was a better prospect before the 2005 season. So unless you have a good post up game then your comment is dumb.

 

He will be gone by mid fourth round

 

McNeal is a bum. And we already have 3 QBs on the roster, the 3rd stringer being someone we already invested a high draft pick in a couple years ago.

 

I have a great post-up game for a guy who's a shade over 6 foot and has the leaping ability of D9 Cat.

 

Safe Pick is Bush but come on Bob don't tell me you haven't thought about having VY in his hometown.

Make it happen Mr. McNair!