Magic Number for the Rockets against West Playoff Contenders

I really want to be wrong on this, but when you see the logic that all of these articles use, they never even mention division winners getting top 4 seeds.

Something official from the league has to come out today. It seems so likely to happen now, and almost everyone is confused by what the seeding will be.

Hopefully, I'll be eating a big crow pie Wednesday night, but I don't think I will be.

 

Thanks, <B>mattj</B> for clarification from the league.

I, Cannonball, and Kim were in fact wrong on this.

We need to rework the Order of Operations:
1) Pick Division winners and give them a top 4 seed.
2) Order the 5 teams that didn't win their division by record. Give the top team a top 4 seed.
3) Seed 1 - 4 based on record.
4) Award seeds 5 - 8 according to the order determined in step 2.

That puts it #3 Jazz, #4 Suns, #5 Rockets, #6 Suns in case of a 4-way tie.

So home court over the Suns.

Mmmmmm....crow pie tastes good!

For the record: I was still right about the Lakers-Rockets-Hornets tie scenario.

 

I agree with what you say in principle, but you have to lay it out in explicit order to break all the tie breaks and top 4 rules. How do you move division winners into the top 4 if 2 division winners aren't in the top 4? What if a division winner is involved in a multiple team tie breaker? The 2 step process doesn't specifically address how to process these scenarios.

I stand with the new reworked Order of Operations. It lays out exactly how to process what you're getting at.

 

Typos

Thanks, <B>desihooper</B>

 

The key question is what to do with a division winner if they are in a multiple team tie break. Are they excluded from that tie break because they win their division or do you throw them in the mix? It's my understanding you remove them from the mix and look at the teams that didn't win their division only.

You could get a different order looking at a 2 team tie break then you would if you added a division winner and had a 3 team tie break. It didn't play out that way this year, but it could easily be different next year.

For example (I am making this up to illustrate the point):
The Jazz win their division but wound up tied with the Nuggets and Mavericks at the end of the season for the 6th best record in the West.

Combined records are:
Jazz: 6-2 (2-2 against Nuggets, 4-0 against Mavericks)
Nuggets: 4-4 (2-2 against Mavericks, 2-2 against Jazz)
Mavericks: 2-6 (2-2 against Nuggets, 0-4 against Jazz)

The Mavericks have the 2 team tie break on the Nuggets due to a better conference record, but in a three team tie break it goes Jazz, Nuggets, Mavericks.

The Jazz won their division so they get a top 4 seed (#4 if their record is that poor), leaving the Nuggets and Mavericks with 7 and 8. Who gets 7? If you exclude the Jazz from that tie break, it's the Mavericks. If you include the Jazz, it's the Nuggets.

If you exclude the division winners, you'd need to use the Order of Operations I proposed. If not, then we could go with fewer steps.

I think we need to rename this thread: "Magic Numbers for the Rockets and Advanced Tie Break\Seeding Theory"

 

Your simpler rules work this year because the 4 team tie break is Jazz, Suns, Rockets, Spurs, in that order. The 3 team tie break is Suns, Rockets, Spurs. So there's no difference if you leave the Jazz in or out.

But what if we swept Utah this year and the 4 team tie break went Jazz, Rockets, Suns, Spurs. The 3 team tie break with Jazz out of the picture went Suns, Rockets, Spurs. How do you order that? I think it's Jazz, Suns, Rockets, Spurs. Under you rules it would be Jazz, Rockets, Suns, Spurs.

Somebody ask Matt Jackson to ask his league source about this. That's the key question and then we can finalize the rules once and for all. I'd like to keep it simpler and not overcomplicate seeding, but I don't think that's the right way to do it.

This will be really helpful because I think we'll be in the same boat next year with the same teams as well as Portland added to the mix.