Great analyses by DudeWah and Torocan on previous page. Nice to finally have some meaningful discussions away from the trolls and lof/loh regurgitating the same crap over and over again.
Torocan just made dumbasses out of all the LOHs. Tell us the truth, why do you hate Lin so much? It can't be about basketball....Torocan just broke it down to you all.
That was a great post. The hardest thing about reading this board is adjusting to the intelligence level and lowering my standards for meaningful insight. There are some good old school rockets posters here but the vast majority don't really understand basketball.
And yet you wonder why you get a lot of flak. That's one of the most arrogant things I've read here. Yes, there are lots of trolls and youngsters here that don't have the experience to grasp the subtle parts of the game. But you just blatantly stereotyped the "vast majority" of the posters into a category you consider inferior. Isn't that action one of the biggest beefs against these Lin detractors? Just a thought.
Fantastic post. You've changed my mind. I was definitely in the Lin jump passes with nowhere to go camp. Looks like it's just a case of human cognition. I don't disagree that the prime is typically 27/28-32, however the studies *specifically* state that it is NOT diminishing returns until they reach the ages of 27/28-32. Lin, should he follow the norm *should* actually continue to improve at a similar pace as his earlier years UNTIL he plateau's around 27/28 (+1-2 years as PG's develop more slowly). And it's not just about "years" in the NBA, it's minutes Played in the NBA. Last year was his first full season with a team getting regular minutes. The year before his season was basically 2 months in a lock out year. And Patterson is still a "young" and developing player. So is Bledsoe. And since you brought up Bledsoe... Eric Bledsoe : Passing Assists/TO - 3.5 (IE, WORSE than Lin, though really the same ballpark for all intensive purposes) http://www.82games.com/1314/13PHO2.HTM TO's while jump passing is memorable. It's highly visible. And Lin's "reputation" means people are "looking" for those TO's and thus find them more memorable. It's like sitting in a park and nothing catches your eye, then someone says to you "Did you notice all the girls wearing short skirts?". Suddenly, everywhere you look there are short skirts. The actual data (and video break downs) do not come anywhere close to supporting the idea that Lin jump passes 1-2 times per game, let alone jump passes without intent 1-2 times per game. And the perception that his passing vision and IQ are dramatically lower, or that his TO's from passes are way out of line for his age and experience is suspect at best. That's the problem with the "eye test". Our memory is fundamentally flawed. It rewrites itself after the fact to fit our mental narratives. And our perception of "fact" is shaped by our expectation. If you *expect* Lin to make TO's, then they leap out at you. It's no different than an air ball being more memorable than a bounce off the rim (despite the on court impact being identical). I stand by my original assertion, that the focus on his Jump Pass TO's is overblown. Yes, they can improve. Yes, there are silly errors. However, they're not nearly as prevalent or in aggregate as negatively impactfull as people are decrying in this thread. And given his age and experience, not really out of line with what *should* be expected. And that has *nothing* to do with his salary, which is simply an entirely different discussion. Lin being paid his salary does not change that he's a human being and largely subject to the learning limitations of the rest of the human race.[/QUOTE]
I'm not a huge Lin fan but the disrespect and escape goatism of him is a bit much for my taste. I wish the extremists would not out number the level headed people on Clutchfans but that doesn't seem to be the case. I like what I see in Canaan but I expected 0 from him. This team isn't ready to be champions and everybody should see it. Lin isn't the reason why they won't win a championship this year. On a side note, Chandlers mid-range runners are getting consistently better, I hope his back holds up.
I respect Torocan's effort and insight but you and the other posters responding with "You're a genius!" is evidence of a confirmation bias. Torocan did not join the board in order to objectively describe Jeremy Lin. He is (1) a Knicks fan and (2) an apologist for Lin. I have not seen a post of his in which he admits to any valid criticisms of Lin. His interpretations of Lin's turnovers are debatable: (1) contact with no call/bad ref calls (2) other players failing to catch the passes (3) players out of position. I don't have time to go over those plays at the moment but your assumption with all of these turnovers is that Lin was not responsible and your analysis confirms your bias. It's possible that Lin has improved his jumping into the air and turning the ball over over his last 10 games. However--it is clearly a problem in his game. He admitted as much when he was playing with the Knicks to Gary Payton. So next time Lin turns the ball over look to blame anyone but Lin? Go through the list (1) McHale and the play-calling (2) a Rocket out of position (3) the other team's physical play (4) the referees (5) a team miscommunication. One can hardly call this objective analysis. You are undoubtedly correct that players have specific places on the court when particular "reactions" occur. However, once again you are assuming that Lin is acting rationally and conducting your analysis in a biased way. It's a tautology to say "When Lin attempts a pass.... he expects it to be filled." Yes--when anyone attempts a pass they expect it to succeed. The issue is that he is wrong about where he is passing. It's not fair to assume that it's always the other players fault when Lin turns the ball over.
I am more than happy to discuss criticisms of Lin. Does he turn the ball over too much? Yes. Does he sometimes push the ball too aggressively? Yes. Is he sometimes too passive? Yes. Is he currently a mediocre starting PG? Yes. Do I believe he's in line for his development curve? Yes. And I supplied the links specifically could look up the data and interpret themselves. All viewpoints are fundamentally biased. The difference is, if I make an assertion I try to support that assertion with the foundational data. You're free to make your own interpretation. Attempting to discredit an analysis by claiming "You're biased!" without interpreting the data yourself is the worst way to discredit a viewpoint. If you disagree with my interpretation, fine. However, attempting to discredit that interpretation by claiming "You're biased!" serves nobody in a meaningful discussion. And the mathematical data is STILL the mathematical data. The actual play by plays are the play by plays. The jump passes are NOT subject to interpretation. Either he attempts a jump pass or he does not. He's either in the air or he's not. And 4 attempts over 10 games is FAR from 1-2 times per game. Even IF my interpretation of the jump passes themselves were incorrect based upon your own viewpoint, it does not change the mathematical FACT that it's NOT 1-2 times per game, and that the impact in aggregate is FAR smaller than being stated in previous posts. In other words, my original assertion that his Jump passes are overblown in MY opinion still stands. Unless you can manufacture "jump passes" that don't exist on game tape...
Agreed on all fronts. Maybe I missed it, but where his analysis regarding Lin's porous defense? I'd like to see some analysis on how many PG's in the league guard another position (SG, etc) because they cannot stay in front of the opposing PG's.
Naturally, Lin fans will support other Lin fans. Did you not expect this given the vitriol spewed by everyone else. I'll summarize in a couple points what Lin fans really want. 1. For him to be treated fairly (on this board and on the team) like any other player. Any positive or negative contributions from him on the court should be acknowledged in the same manner for other players. 2. For him to have opportunities to play and be a significant contributor. It's frustrating when he plays well and doesn't see enough minutes. Nothing we can do about that, we're not on the coaching staff. Honestly, that's about it, there's not much else to ask for.
I appreciate the response. I didn't realize the discussion involved the claim that Lin jump passes to the other team multiple times per game. I don't expect that. You are probably right to say that his jump passes are overblown but it is a problem in his game that has always been there and stems easy to fix. A similarly frustrating move is Parsons' pump fakes at the 3 or Harden's no look passes. Saying "you're biased" is relevant to the interpretation of particular plays as you've said. To watch plays with the assumption that Lin didn't make a mistake when he turned the ball over does seem biased. The null hypothesis for turnovers is that a mistake was made. I think that "you're biased" is meaningful in that conversation. I'll look at the particular plays later on.
lol wow, did you have to bring your stats 101 course material into this. Actually, while you're at it, can you create a 95% confidence interval for Lin's turnovers using 2.4 as the point estimate
Just one small point about Lin's turnovers. Lin is told consistently and constantly to push, push, push, push the ball. That's all you hear from McHale about him when his shot is off or he isn't playing good. It's so bad the boy can't even pull the ball out when it's 2 on 4. And that's where he gets in trouble on his turnovers the most. In my humble opinion, it is this constant push into overdrive that causes Lin's turnover % to be higher than too high. The kid is smarter than that. He knows when to hold up. I do agree with the LOFs to a certain degree that McHale is not letting Lin use his noggin out there...which is probably the very best part of Lin's game. Lin is much too smart to be pushing the ball into traffic constantly. We seen that in NY. He would set up his pick-and-roll action perfectly and he pushed when he had the numbers and he pushed to the very limits that James Harden pushes to now. Lin is James Harden in a smaller body with less perimeter shooting ability. Every other aspect of his game is the same as Harden. He drives, finds the seams, sees the floor well, delivers the ball well, seeks contact in the paint, finishes well, and doesn't do a good job of defending smaller, quicker players. That is James Harden.
Thank you for your well reasoned response. Your condescension is very illuminating. Talking about hypotheses in the context I referred to is not sophomoric. You complain about posters that are beneath you and then refuse to respond to my point. With turnovers you should dusty with the assumption that the player is to blame. That's why turnovers are a statistic. Thank you for bringing your post graduate education to this forum. It's evident that only you and a few others on this forum are capable of communicating on an intellectual level.
I was just kidding. I enjoy the deep statisical analysis that occasionally happens on this forum. It's like talking to an MIT grad.
I was not conducting an analysis at all. Just pointing out the obvious. He was justifying turnovers--which are an objective criteria--by claiming that they weren't Lin's fault. You should assumed they are his fault--although certainly there are other factors. That is just as biased as claiming that our losses are on Lin due to his poor play. Unlike many of his fans, Lin takes responsibility for his recent slump. You have been abused too long by extreme criticisms of Lin to admit to his flaws. His jump pass turnovers will continue to be a problem in his game.
