What Bloomberg Economics Says ... “The details showed demand made only a limited pickup. And even that was mostly driven by external demand. Domestic demand still appears to be struggling despite a range of stimulus measures having been rolled out
an observations by an Aussie economics columnist. https://www.afr.com/world/asia/why-the-peak-china-story-is-overdone-20240201-p5f1ji China’s overbuilt property market, worth about a quarter of the economy, was unsustainable. The Chinese leadership has long understood this, but held off until 2020 to burst the bubble, when they ordered banks to cut lending to developers to guide the sector onto a sustainable path. What was meant to be a kind of controlled demolition has turned into something else, a slow-rolling series of disruptive bankruptcies of some of the biggest developers in the world. The decision of a Hong Kong court this week to liquidate Evergrande, the country’s largest developer with debts of US$300 billion ($455 billion), symbolizes the size of the hole the industry was allowed to dig itself into. The liquidation will have minimal practical effect – Hong Kong creditors will have little, if any, access to Evergrande’s mainland assets, which have largely been frozen, seized or sold off already. But the property downturn will weigh on the public, who have watched the value of their homes fall or, in some cases, have lost deposits on unbuilt apartments altogether. As a result, anxious consumers are saving rather than spending. This matters, as the PRC has a far higher rate of home ownership than the West, in part because there are so few other assets to invest in. The capital account is closed, so they can’t easily invest offshore, and the local sharemarket, never a reliable investment, is in a deep slump. My 2 cents, The PRC is not nimble enough to dig itself out of its beconomic hole quickly, like the US economy has done the 2008/2009 financial crisis the 2020-2021 Pandemic the Chinese economy is slowing / plateauing, not collapsing
www.ft.com /content/d6b2e4d6-2f84-4ef9-bf99-10d76d92d045 Chinese companies revive Mao Zedong-era militias
My guess is these company militias have less to do with Mao and more to do with Pinkerton. These militias are likely going to be used to enforce social order and break up strikes and other economic disruptions as the PRC economy stalls.
I also fear that it will only be a matter of time before PrC sympathetic companies in Hong Kong set up their own militias. During the unrest in 2019 there were pro PRC gangs that harassed anti PRC people. A lot of rumor was that the PRC and police were encouraging them and aiding them.
Xi Jinping’s hunger for power is hurting China’s economy A new economic plan won’t end deflation, even as he sidelines his prime minister
I doubt the CCP would take the Economist's nice suggestions but even those suggestions such as increased liberalization of the private sector wouldn't go as far as real estate/banking debt resolution and restructuring, ending incentives for regional "warlord" corruption, and truly freeing the consumer class of purchasing restrictions that lead to the mutli-decade real estate bubble (that survived their rigged decade-long stock bubble). If one could dream, I guess. As for their suppressed population crisis, maybe if they didn't treat their plebs and proles like leeks, there'd be more incentive to work harder and have more children...
In February 2024 the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry came in at 49.1 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from Jan. In Mar 2024, The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 from 49.1 a month earlier and export orders also picked up This is the composite PMI its highest since April 2023
on April 10, 2024 Fitch, a credit rating firm, cuts China's ratings outlook on growth risks fwiw, in Aug 2023, Fitch had downgraded the US credit rating. since that down grade, US's GDP continues to grow job creatin continues unemployment reamains at historic low running avg of 6-month core CPI continues to dip, to below 4%
yet another attempt by China to resustitate its property market, China Attempts to End Property Crisis With Broad Rescue Package I am no economicst, but i know enough to know that is not enough. China needs spend several trillions, ~ 10 times what is willing to spend now. reminds me of W's failed attempt to bail out the bankrupt financial industry in 2008/2009
I had heard speculation from people who studied the PrC that the government has been bolstering the property market for years. The market should’ve collapsed ten years ago.
Their incentives for works was systemic and upheld by their top-bottom corruption regime. Think the opposite of California's NIMBYISM where everyone gets fed by a freeway/bridge/overpriced administrative building and a house (or two or three "on the way"). The trillion dollar question is to what extent the government knew post Beijing Olympics or even post GFC for that matter. Their stimulus packages during the GFC didn't pan out. Did Xi sell them with his plans of a neo-Marxist border closing and reinvention of their economy, or were his power plays purely organic and the vision was set afterwards? China has a track record of burning books and historical documents for posterity, so we might never know even after 50 years. Regardless, they won't be able to handle the productivity loss from an aging and dwindling population. Chasing good money with bad property defaults and the banks that support them is lost decades sucker bait. The kids might not like a year or two of financial destruction, but fattening the old at the top while starving the suckers who aren't lying flat is a recipe for rapid decay/stagnation and mutli-generational bitterness. A lot of hard choices for China and other debt burdened countries.
let's be specific. insufficient / half-assed attempt to bail out a failed sector of the economy, reminiscent of W's failure to bail out the bankrupt US financial industry, in 08/09 , lol, do you know of any good property defaults? more eg of your cut n paste job on topics about which ur clueless; reminescent of your laughable attempts to impress people with such meaningless verbiage as "the Fed wrecking its balance sheet"
Desiring and having a dictator is beautiful until you want change. Our MAGA and MAGA-lite bbs friends aren’t yet woke to this.
Insurrectionist Trump’s allies are quietly drafting proposals that would erode the indepence of the Federal Reserve Bank, should Trump win the 2024 election
