I do that too, but reality is sometimes just as interesting. The US is #1 by far and 5 of those 8 countries are US allies. Those generals and politicians must be shocked at how this happened. They must have no idea how to get out of it!! Come on Deckard. There's no instance in history where the US is the best customer of an enemy and vice versa. Making someone your biggest trading partner and keeping that way requires strategy and planning and coordination. That doesn't happen. That's not a thing. You've been following politics a long time. If I told you that about any country in the world, you would simply not believe those countries are mortal enemies and you would see it for the propaganda it is. This is not about a natural resource that China owns which the US desperately needs. We're talking about a country slowly dismantling its own manufacturing base and shifting it heavily into a single other country. They knew that move would ravage several states in the US. They knew that would make the CCP insanely rich. These are not coincidences. These guys have made a lot of money together, they are closer to each other than they are to their citizens. Don't delude yourself into believing they're on your side.
That's not nearly enough. Apple is starting the trend of having a backup plan, but the truth is the US economy cannot function without Chinese manufacturing. If the two countries ended relations and stopped trading today, there would be a US, China and global economic crisis instantly. Moving part of Apple to India is a drop in the ocean of the size of this thing. Not to mention it would take decades to shift an economy like that. The American base plan is not sustainable of course. American manufacturing is slow and expensive plus the workers have more rights than Chinese workers. You would have to commit to having higher prices, which is something most Americans simply can't afford.
Yes the the US and PRC economies are closely dependent and intertwined. That is one reason why war is unlikely between the two. It doesn’t mean that US and PRC interests align. Both countries have taken steps the last ten years to actually reduce dependence on each other with the recent efforts by the Trump and Biden admins to try to build up US manufacturing and the PRC selling off US debt and trying to build their own domestic market. Obviously after decades of building up supply chains and markets its not something that can simply be undone but as we see with Russia it is possible that things can get so bad between countries that they break economic ties.
the lessening of dependence on China mfg, has been impactful enough, leading to an all-time high in youth unemployment, 21%; so alarming that the PRC has opted to stop releasing such economic statistics. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/15/china-unemployment-rate-youth-economy Vietnam, w its productive workforce and lower labor cost than China, has been a viable option. if you have shopped in Costco, there are many Vietnamese apparel/food items being sold, replacing Chinese imports
China Mulls New Stimulus, Higher Deficit to Meet Growth Goal China is considering raising its budget deficit for 2023 as the government prepares to unleash a new round of stimulus to help the economy meet the official growth target, according to people familiar with the matter. Policymakers are weighing the issuance of at least 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) of additional sovereign debt for spending on infrastructure such as water conservancy projects, That could raise this year’s budget deficit to well above the 3% cap set in March The discussions underscore mounting concerns among China’s top leadership over the trajectory of the world’s second-largest economy and how growth compares to the US. It would also mark a shift in Beijing’s stance as the government has so far avoided broader fiscal stimulus despite a deepening property crisis and rising deflationary pressure that have put the growth goal of around 5% for the year at risk. Economists have repeatedly cut their growth forecasts for this year to 5%, now in line with China’s annual goal that was deemed conservative when it was set in March. A further deceleration in growth would add more depreciation pressure on an already-weak Chinese currency, leading capital to leave the country and exposing the nation’s financial markets to potential turmoil. Anemic economic expansion also means fewer new jobs to be created, worsening the unemployment situation and endangering social stability.
PRC has built a lot of great infrastructure which will help it in the long run but there is a limit to how much domestic spending on things like infrastructure can pull up the economy. If the infrastructure though isn't ready to be used and isn't addressing an issue such projects become white elephants that don't stimulate further economic growth. Right now the PRC has a lot of white elephants.
There's a lot of endemic corruption to the point where I read an article describing how corruption has become a feature to get things done for a sprawling state run market economy. It's generally assumed that the CCP is run from the top-down but it's more like a stratified pyramid of local and provincial party members deciding where local money is used while getting subsidies from up top for shiny works. This gamed the system towards real estate and infrastructure and led them to their current troubles. Their stimulus as a response to the GFC didn't turn out the way they expected, so I'm not sure if this will boost long term hopes. I guess from our standpoint, they'll likely sell even more treasuries and issue more debt (likely by pilfering their own people's savings). Hawks will claim it's some currency war or a move towards BRICS. The problem with that idea is that treasuries are still the safest asset class in a race to the bottom for currencies. You want liquid assets in a time like this, and the Dollar is still king. The other issue has been Xi's woeful handling of the lockdowns and its tech sector. He's an authoritarian socialist who decided to use a hammer on folks like Jack Ma. Might've solved the issue of their tech bros getting too uppity but that killed the potential of foreign investment returning in droves. Some investors think a stimulus like this plus regulatory sugar will mark a rebirth in their tech sector's market value, but I doubt it'll last long given the current global climate. China has a lot of things to fix. Their Wolf Warrior diplomacy didn't earn them the right kind of friends to support them, and it means they'll have to handle it largely on their own. You probably don't want an ideologue who used anti-corruption as the rationale to purge opposing factions as the mastermind behind your country's economic recovery.
One of the things that Xi has been good at is clampling down corruption. He came in as anti-coruption crusader and from what I've been hearing he has been cracking down on a lot of the perks that "princes" would get. I agree with you though that his biggest problem is he's too authoritarian and rather than driven by pragmatism like Hu Jintao or Jiang Zemin he's driven by his own desire for power and control.
but the economic policies implemented by this Chinese bureaucrat, so far, as proven Gordan Chang's prediction to be wrong. As a trained economist Li Keqiang helped steer the PRC economy to become th world's second-largest economy, alongside President Xi Jinping. For his good work, he was later promoted to become the No. 2 official in the Chinese Communist Party. Li's final years as premier were marked by the COVID-19 pandemic and President Xi's strict zero-COVID policy. Authorities across the country imposed often-draconian lockdowns to contain outbreaks. But Li was widely considered a pragmatist, at times even crossing into what appeared to be rare acts of defiance.A year ago, in October 2022, he stepped down from the all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee. He took his final bow as premier in March. yesterday, CCTV reported he suffered a heart attack, at age 68, just months after retirement
i suggest that you read up on Bidenomics, specifically the CHIP act, as well as this recent edict by the POTUS Biden Directs Nvidia, the world's pre-eminent AI chip maker, to Immediately Curb Chip Exports to China
That's hilarious bro. Biden will be dead within 10 years and he will only remain president for 1-5 years. Then another dude will come and say the other way is better. Then after that dude another dude will come and reverse it. That's how it works in the US for nothing to change, that's why they've been arguing about abortion for 100+ years. I don't think you understand the size of US-China trade relations. Also your article is about sales and not manufacturing. China doesn't give a F about buying what other people manufacture. It cares about other people's natural resources (gold, oil, coltan, etc.) so it can manufacture things and eat energy. When you see what China does in DR Congo next year, the trade numbers will make you laugh at such articles. They will get all those resources out of Africa, manufacture them in China or a nearby ally country, then they will ship it for US customers. In the meantime they will both keep putting our press releases as though they hate each other. Time to wake up. The US would never give this much publicity to its biggest enemy. The US government is one of the countries that has always and will always follow what I call the Ayatollah Theory - never name your biggest enemy and never name your own leader. Choose a fake enemy and "elect" a fake leader so that you can collaborate with them to create a narrative. That way you don't get any surprises or pressure on your strategy. Thanks for keeping me in mind for an old post. I'm trying very hard for years not to get involved on the D&D so I probably won't reply again here, please don't take it as disrespecting you. Peace.
Xi is also no spring chicken; plus he has lost his most capable economic expert, Li China’s Aging Population Is a Major Concern. But Its Youth May Be an Even Bigger Problem look in the mirror. yet another eg of your willful ignorance your can't possiblt be this ignorant, China cares so much that it spends lots of $$$ on industiral espionage. ROFLMAO, the dizzying height of willful ignorance! if it is as BIG as you want it to be , why can't you even come across an estimate or more details my take,
China may be one social unrest, at a scale comparable to TianAnMan / Umbrella Revolution, away from breaking at the seams
