Yeah thats a good question ..even if he's salary goes from 1.5 to 1.7, still a bargin.the years dosent bother me. even if he dosent thrive under adelman, with he's salary, he'll be very easy to move.
Yes. There were 16 games last season in which Chuck Hayes either didn't play or played less than 15 minutes. Our defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) in those games was 107.4, which is very subpar. Our defensive rating in the rest of the games was 98.8, good enough to lead the league. Furthermore, if you look closer at the games in which Chuck played, our defensive rating was much better with him on the floor than off. That's the case even when you try to adjust for different teammates. I looked at this stuff a ton last season, and I was amazed how consistently it held up.
I love you durvasa. People have a tendency to forget what actually happened on the court. JVG didn't have Chuck in there for defense at the end of close games because he's an idiot. I seriously wonder sometimes if we are watching the same games. The next argument will be, "But those stats don't mean anything"
Hayes missed 4 games last season and our defensive numbers did get slightly worse. Points went up from 92/game to 99 game. FG% wene up from 43% to 44%. However, we played the Spurs, Bulls, Pistons and Knicks during that timeframe (went 2-2). Why did you choose a cut-off of 15 minutes or less? Lastly, do you think there was an increase when Hayes went out because Hayes is that good of a defender, or because the rest of our PF's were garbage? When Hayes missed time we had guys like Padgett getting decent minutes (basically we didn't have another PF besides Juwon). If I am dating one average girl and 3 ugly ones as the same time, at the end of the day the average girl...while better than the rest...is still average. Hayes is an average player IMO, which is why I think we are so desperate to upgrade the position. Even his salary says "average". I appreciate what he does (high energy role player off the pine) but think some overvalue him quite a bit here.
I'm watching the games. If your argument is that Hayes is a better defender than an old Juwon Howard and a bunch of PF's who are moreso SF's (Padgett, Novak) then I completely agree. But that does not make him a good defender. It just makes him better than the rest of the crap we had at PF. So I guess you thought Buck Johnson and all those scrubs that started alongside Hakeem back in the day were good too?
That cutoff corresponds to the bottom 20% of games (16 of them) in which he played the fewest minutes. It was arbitrary. Padgett and Novak were so insignificant last season, they shouldn't even enter the discussion. If you just compare our defense with Juwan and the regular four (Yao, McGrady, Battier, Alston) versus Chuck and the starters, it's much, much worse. If Chuck is merely an average defender, that makes Juwan Howard an absolutely pathetic defender. Now, just think for a second. If Juwan was that bad of a defender, why on earth would Van Gundy, who amongst all coaches has the least patience for bad defense, keep playing him so much and praising him in the papers?
Hey, I know they're great at help defense. They're bad at man-to-man D, which was your main knock on why hayes was not a good defender. Why knock him and not them? And by the way, Hayes is good at both help and man defense. He cuts off the lane, has good hands for steals and deflections, is a good defensive rebounder, is very good at trapping on the pick and roll, and holds his position in the post against anybody. Not only is there video evidence of this on all of R2K's highlight vids (search Youtube), but there are stats backing up every contribution I just listed besides PnR defense. I hate using stats because they can be misleading, but his defensive stats are higher than most PF's in the league, not just our team. You've provided no evidence for your arguments, not even anecdotes. You just throw them out there as if we'll take your word for it. Guys just shoot over Hayes because he's short? Like who? Name one guy all season that consistently did that. Not great at help d? Look at the charges drawn, the steals, the deflections, the box outs, opp FG% in the paint when he's in the game. You say he's not a good defender, that you watch the games like we do, but you have absolutely nothing backing up your claims. That everyone on this thread disagrees with you should tell you something.
What recent DPOY winner is bad at man-to-man D? Marcus Camby? Ben Wallace? Artest? Mutombo? Hayes is good at man D and these guys are bad at it? I am not putting much reliance on using team defensive stats as a measure of Hayes individual defensive skills. I understand we had our highest defensive rankings with him in the game, but that doesn't make him a good defender, it just makes him better than the pathetic defenders we had at PF spot (Howard, Padgett, Novak). Just because M.James put up 20 in Toronto doesn't mean he is a very good scorer...they just didn't have anyone else to put up points. I looked up his individual defensive statistics in comparison to other PF's. Disclaimer...I am not a big fan of extropolating numbers out to 48 minutes because that doesn't take into account folks managing to stay out of foul trouble or play extended minutes (i.e. Yao early on in his career). JVG gave Hayes plenty of chances to keep a bunch of other weak PF's on the bench and he couldn't log more minutes due to his inability to stay out of foul trouble, IMO. Chuck Hayes is #13 at spg for a PF. There are 30 teams in the league. 13 of 30 looks closer to average to me than good. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/stati...=pg&qual=true&season=2007&seasontype=2&pos=pf Chuck Hayes is #49 at bpg for a PF. I would call that poor. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/stati...=pg&qual=true&season=2007&seasontype=2&pos=pf Chuck Hayes is #3 at personal fouls per game for a PF. I would call that poor. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/stati...=pg&qual=true&season=2007&seasontype=2&pos=pf Chuck Hayes is #29 at defensive rebounds per game for a PF. I would call that poor. I tried my best to find a stat for charges per game and I couldn't. However, I did find the top 35 for last season. There were 10 PF's in the top 35 (Varejao, Oneal, Jason Collins, R.Wallace, Joe.Smith, B.Wallace, Haslem, Harrington, Bosh and Oberto). Battier was #9 with 50. Jarron Collins was #35 with 31. The Rockets had 147 as a team, so after removing Battier's share the rest of the team had 97. I am going to assume 3-5 more PF's finished with more charges than Hayes, which would put him in the average category once again. I may be wrong but I'll take my chances.... http://82games.com/charges0607.htm I couldn't find deflection leaders. I am obviously seeing a different thing when I watch Rockets games than you are, but I am failing to see any numbers that show me Hayes is a good defender...and I surely don't see it when I watch him play. I see a Rockets team with a good defensive concept, and a PF that I would consider average get minutes because who else did we really have to give them to. No, I am not suprised that our defensive rankings would decrease when Padgett or old man Howard is in instead of Hayes...but just because they suck does not make him good. IMO he is an average PF, he is being paid like an average PF, and we have been dying to upgrade that position for a reason.
This completely misses the point of per-minute stats. If you want to measure how good a player is at getting steals, and you just look at per game numbers, you're not just measuring his ability to get steals. You're measuring his ability to get steals plus his ability to stay on the floor for an extended period. It's a distorted measurement. You say you can't find any numbers that indicate Chuck is a good defender. Well, that's because you ignore all the numbers that do show that. There are various approaches for measuring player defense (an article currently posted at 82games.com, John Hollinger's individual defensive rating, adjusted defensive +/-), and I'm telling you they all indicate that Chuck is a very good defensive player. The statistical evidence is there in abundance, but you don't trust it. And if you want something non-stats based, NBA scouts told Jonothan Feigen last season that they consider Chuck to be one of the best defensive PFs in the game. That's what Feigen said on 610 early last season. Not sure if there's a link to that interview online, though.
I already why I believe per minute stats are distorted. If Hayes can't stay out of foul trouble to rack up higher numbers whose fault is that? Stats per game show his actual production. I could see the mpg argument for players stuck behind better players (i.e. J.Oneal in Portland) to show that they can produce when given time. However that isn't the case with hayes. The only person holding him back from getting more minutes is Hayes. I looked up all of his individual numbers. Again, I have stated why I am not impressed with our team defensive numbers increasing when he is in the game. I think that shows that we are a better defensive team with him in, but that doesn't necessarily equate to him being a good defender. It just equates to him being a better defender than the pathetic defenders we have at that position (Howard, Novak, Padgett). I have read the article on 82games.com (someone tried to use it as support on the realgm site) and this is the same article that states Alston is a good defender at his position, so I don't put much reliance on that. I haven't seen Hollingers stuff but post it if you like. I spent enough time last night looking up his individual numbers. If you want to believe Hayes is one of the games best defensive PF's then more power to you. I think it's odd that no other team is bringing offers to the table for one of the games best defensive PF's, and that our star player and others have been stating that one of our biggest needs is a defensive PF that can rebound. You never hear anyone say the Rockets need a defensive SF. You never hear anyone say we need a center that can score, or a multi-dimensional SG. Why...because we already have those on our team and we don't consider them needs. Yet folks always talk about how we need a defensive PF that can hit the boards....yet we supposedely have one of the best ones on our roster...one that can't get more than 1.6M in a league where quality big-men are overpaid more than any other position. Sure.......
I said Wallace and Camby. Did I say anything about Artest and Deke or are you just putting words into my mouth? Wallace and Camby are nothing special when it comes to man D. Wallace insists on single coverage (good idea, actually) and gets lit up, while Camby can't hold his position in the post better than someone like Varejao and doesn't flop to make up for it. You're the one who said Chuck wasn't a good defender because he couldn't "contain people". The two DPOY winners I mentioned can't contain people any better, so why the double standard? If you're not going to do per minute stats, then don't do them at all. According to your method, Deke is 21st in RPG amongst centers. Pretty poor if you ask me. You'll probably make an exception due to his age, so note that the same method of looking at stats show that Amare is a better defensive rebounder than Jeff Foster and that's a load of crap. Who's holding Foster from getting minutes at center? Troy freaking Murphy?
So what exactly are you arguing? That Hayes is not a good defender, or that he can't stay on the floor? You initially questioned Haye's defense, but now you're talking about him not getting minutes is his fault, so we can't use per min stats? Do you see the flaw? Did you not read what durvasa wrote? WE never hear anyone say the rockets need any of those because we have 2 superstars in that position.
What is attractive about Scola and other PFS we might have chased is not that they are better defenders or rebounders than Chuck Hayes, they almost surely won't be, it is because they are hopefully MUCH better offensive players. Those posters clamoring for a single minded "defensive PF who hit the boards" haven't had the big picture of the Rockets weaknesses and certainly havn't corresponded with what our front office has wanted to do. We have added James, Francis and Scola to add offensive punch, not more boards or defense where the Rockets already were among the elite. Bruce Bowen, who is unquestionably the best man defender in the league the last 5 years, only received a 4 year $14.25 million deal. I am not saying Hayes is even close to that caliber, but it does give an indication of how much man defense is rewarded contractwise. Those teams that payed the Reggie Evans and Jeff Fosters MLE type levels, both actually worse offensive players than Chuck Hayes, couldn't find takers unless they take on just as unwanted contracts.
Hollinger put Chuck Hayes on his All-Defense second team (first team went to Duncan). link to article (Insider): Hayes is a restricted free agent who wasn't exactly selling himself to other teams (he maintained throughout that he planned on returning to Houston), so offers wouldn't be flooding in early in the offseason anyways. And while Chuck is a very effective defensive player for 20-30 minutes a game, he's a limited offensive player who may not thrive as much when not playing alongside two superstars. He's a very good role player, but he probably will never play big minutes (30+) in his career. Teams also rarely spend a lot of money on undersized bigs, much less ones that are a year and half removed from the NBDL. Chuck happens to bring a lot of things to the table that are very much under-appreciated by fans and even NBA teams. Refer to the The Wages of Wins if you want a detailed discussion on how NBA teams tend to underrate players like Chuck Hayes. I've heard Tracy McGrady say this. No one else. A legitimate need is a young, athletic PF/C with size. Chuck is a very good defensive player, but it would be foolish to deny that his size is a disadvantage at times. Sometimes, you want to be able to plug in a bigger, more athletic player. We didn't have that option last year, and it would be nice to have it this year. I don't think management considers it a high priority, though. Show me the quotes of people saying we need "a defensive PF who rebounds."
No one said that. Tmac said we need another big who can rebound, not that we don't have one already (we have three). According to Icehouse's stat analysis Tmac must be talking about Mutumbo's deficiencies on the glass, seeing as how he's 21st in rebounds amongst centers and rebounds less than Chuck.
And I completely disagree that Wallace and Camby are poor man defenders, especially if you consider Hayes good at it. You are entitled to your opinion, but I don't think too many will agree with you that Ben Wallace and Camby are poor man defenders. Hayes can't contain people and his defensive numbers for his position are average. Deke is a perfect example of why mpg stats can be so misleading. Part of being good at a certain thing is the ability to continually do that thing. Last season showed that Deke was great as long as his minutes were limited. The more he played the more his production suffered. For whatever reason (his age in this case) he wasn't able to sustain that same performance for an extended period of time. So in his case it's pointless to use his per minute stats and say he is the best in the league at something. Can the Rockets convert on that production? The answer is no because he can't play extended minutes. The same goes for Hayes, who can't play extended minutes due to his inability to stay on the floor. If you want to go by mpg stats then go ahead, but in cases like these I don't pay them any mind as they give my team no advantage. I only consider mpg stats in situations like the J.Oneal one in Portland. Both. I am arguing that he is an average defender. He has poor to average defender statistics. I see no flaw in not using mpg stats to extrapolate his numbers because the only thing from keeping him on the floor to maximize those numbers is him. Some players production decreases as they play more minutes. Will the mpg stat tell us that about Hayes? You are assuming his production will remain at that same level with extended minutes. There are plenty of examples to show that that's not the case, especially for a high energy player. Yes I read what he wrote. IMO, those stats show Hayes is the best defensive PF that we have (and I'm sure everyone will agree that the others on the roster are poor defenders). Just because he is better than crap does not make him good. Are you also now going to argue that Alston is a good defender, as he basically got all the PG minutes this season? Weren't we a league leader in defense in JVG's first season (when Francis was starting)? Are you going to argue that Francis is a good defender? I think the Rockets have a good defensive concept, and I don't think Hayes is a garbage defender like others on our roster, but he isn't good IMO. We also never hear them say we need a defensive SF because we already have one, correct? That is true. However there really weren't any good defensive SF's available for us to get this summer. I don't think anyone has been touting the defensive capabilities of any PF we acquired this offseason. If you think Hayes is the defensive answer to PF's in the West then more power to you. I could swear that's been one of the biggest complaints on this board for the past 2 years or so though...that and a quality PG. If Hayes were tht good at ti then we wouldn't have such a need. Why would JVG not put him on Boozer if he is such a good defender? durvasa Nice Hollinger find. He knows his ball but I have to strongly disagree if he thinks Chuck Hayes is one of the best defensive PF's in basketball (what position does KG play). If that were the case then I don't see us letting a PF kill us in the playoffs, if his defensive skills were that strong. I was referring to fans and people on this board. All season I recall everyone begging for a defensive PF that can rebound as well. Someone to help Yao out. Now Hayes gets resigned and everyone seems to be changing their tunes.
Putting Chuck on Boozer was a nonstarter, because JVG didn't want Yao guarding Okur on the perimeter.
I'm pretty sure a smart defensive coach would'a changed his mind if Hayes was a stud defender like some are making him out to be. Does it really make much sense to let some PF keep killing you when you have a really good defender at that position? Did Hayes really even stop Okur? I saw Okur missing tons of open shots in losses, and making them in wins. What about Milsap..was he d'ing him up? I'm also hearing how great of a rebounder Hayes is, yet we lost the series in the final minute because we couldn't secure a board. If you watched the full Jazz series and didn't conclude that we needed a defensive PF who can rebound when the series was over then I don't know what to say (along with a guard that can make a shot).... But enough bandwidth...we aren't going to agree. You guys pray that he keeps giving us stellar defense and I will pray that he never has to start.
The Rocket did come close to winning the series with Chuck on Okur. And yes, coaches at times would allow a player to go off on them if they seek to control scoring from the rest of the lineup. It's a strategy that's been used a number of times.
Deke as a starter (33 games): 10.4 rpg in 27.1 minutes. Per 48 rpg = 18.42 Deke as a reserve (42 games): 3.4 rpg in 9.4 minutes. Per 48 rpg = 17.36 What the hell are you talking about? He had a couple of bad games right before Yao came back (following a string of amazing performances). People assume that's because he ran out of gas, but how would you know unless he played the minutes? Your aversion to per minute stats is unfounded. It'll portray Eddy Curry as a better rebounder than Deke. And yes, I've seen knicks fans eschew per minute stats because it makes Curry look like a good rebounder. Do you really want to use that line of reasoning? And for the record, Hayes' minutes are limited because his offense is limited, just like Foster. If he could hit a jumpshot Juwan would never have seen the floor. But we're not talking about his offense, which I agree is atrocious. We're talking about his defense. He is a good defender. We've got video, stats, popular opinion on this board, and expert commentary on our side. All you have on your side is bias.
