Don't really have an opinion of the effectiveness of polling I just look at it as data that can give us an idea of what people are thinking. I don't think this political climate really has anything to do with anything as far as polls go, I think the only difference is that more people have stacked out a position and there are not many persuadable voters this year.
I think polling is effective at the national level because there are so many polls that can be referenced and analyzed. I think polling below the national level (Senate, House, and State races) can be less effective mainly because there aren't as many polls to reference. Most of the time, if you're lucky, you get one or two pollers or you get the party pollers...those don't really help as much because the party pollers are basically garbage and you have to hope the other pollers are giving effective polls. I also think that there are a number of issues that can normally sway elections over time, but I think @jiggyfly is correct in that this year is showing that people are pretty steadfast in their positions...which creates less variance in the poll numbers and also means that its less likely to see the polls narrowing come November (could still happen, but so far, we haven't seen any movement...even after the conventions). The main thing is to always remember the margin of error in polls and to realize that the presidency isn't decided on the popular vote. As Nate Silver was pointing out yesterday, Biden is polling higher in a lot of Dem-strong states than Obama did in 2012...means a lot of his added votes aren't going to matter much as those states were already in his column. Could mean that Trump may still win the electoral college even if he loses the popular vote by 5-6 points. Then again, could also mean that Trump is gaining most of his support from Republican strongholds that are already in his column.
The problem with polls is that 1) it is just assumed that the Repugs will suppress about 3-4% of the vote and 2) understandably there is a couple percent of Trump voters who understandably do not want to seem like complete immoral morons by supporting crazy Trump due to merely being abortion only or tax breaks for the rich only voters
Biden loses ground in this one dropping from a 10 point lead to 6 https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/515192-biden-leads-trump-on-law-and-order-coronavirus-poll Biden leads Trump on law and order, coronavirus: poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/515309-biden-leads-trump-by-6-points-in-wisconsin-poll Biden leads Trump by 6 points in Wisconsin: poll https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/wisconsin/ Who’s ahead in Wisconsin? An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency
looks pretty even in Florida https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/7203771-NBC-News-Marist-Poll-FL-Annotated-Questionnaire.html discussion: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/me...-biden-are-tied-battleground-florida-n1239510
The RCP average is showing Biden with a 1.4% lead in the FL and 3.2% in the overall battleground states.
New polls show Joe Biden struggling to appeal to Latino voters in Florida, a boost to Donald Trump in the critical swing state https://www.businessinsider.com/flo...ami-dade-latinos-cuban-american-voters-2020-9
There's a lot of rich Cubans down there. They probably love the tax cuts. As for the low income Hispanics grooming all those lawns in Florida, or the middle class ones working hard but barely getting by, well I can't imagine why they would vote for him. He doesn't give a s*it about them, and certainly won't make their life better, or give them affordable healthcare.
https://www.newsweek.com/biden-lead...group-no-democrat-has-won-two-decades-1531153 Biden Leads Trump by Double Digits With Senior Voters Over 65—A Group No Democrat Has Won in Two Decades
