Since we are headed into the home stretch and Polls are starting to give a clear pic of the race post conventionI and the narrative seems to be the race is tightening I thought we needed a dedicated poll thread. I will link to RCP and 538 because they have trendlines and links to the various polls. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ Feel free to post any analysis of polling data as well.
This is considered an A+ poll https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/514682-new-poll-shows-trumps-tough-path-to-reelection One of the first major national polls released after the Republican National Convention shows former Vice President Joe Biden with an almost double-digit lead over President Trump. The survey, conducted by veteran pollster Ann Selzer for Grinnell College, finds Biden leading 49 percent to 41 percent, on the strength of a huge advantage among female voters, suburbanites and Americans with a college degree. The Democratic presidential nominee leads among women by a 56 percent to 34 percent margin, a wider gender gap than former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton received in 2016 and larger even than the 19-point advantage House Democratic candidates earned over Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections when they reclaimed control of the chamber.
Senate Polls. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/ https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate/
Interesting poll...my takeaway is that Trump has basically lost the election because of his COVID response. Saw that Biden's approval has dropped considerably in that poll since march, but Trump lost ground as well, but almost every answer regarding COVID pointed the finger at Trump...and that's with most respondents thinking the economy is going to be better soon.
Most Senate elections reflect states’ presidential votes https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...-elections-reflect-states-presidential-votes/ The vast majority of the regular and special Senate elections held since 2012 – 122 of 139 – have been won by candidates who belonged to or were aligned with the party that won that state’s most recent presidential race, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of election results going back to 1980. That represents a marked contrast with prior years: As recently as 2006, nearly a third of Senate contests (10 out of 33) were won by candidates of different parties than their state’s most recent presidential pick.
It's all about the state polls Penn is concerning as well as Minn those will be the 2 states to watch IMO.
State Polls. https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/ Arkansas is not getting much attention but its only 2 points to Trump. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/state_president/
Trump RNC bounce 'fleeting' as Biden gains in Wisconsin and Arizona, holds lead in other battlegrounds https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...onsin-leads-other-key-states-poll/3455027001/
Why Minnesota Could Be The Next Midwestern State To Go Red https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-minnesota-could-be-the-next-midwestern-state-to-go-red/
COUNTRY BETTER OR WORSE OFF THAN 2016? Likely voters say 58 - 38 percent that the country is worse off than it was in 2016, the year of the last presidential election. Republicans say 84 - 15 percent the country is better off, Democrats say 95 - 4 percent it is worse off, and independents say 60 - 36 percent it is worse off. "With six in ten likely voters feeling the country has lost ground, the president stares down a big gap to make up in a short time," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy. BIDEN VS. TRUMP: THE ISSUES Likely voters are split 48 - 48 percent when asked whether Biden or Trump would do a better job handling the economy. Asked about handling four other key issues, Biden holds a clear lead: On handling racial inequality, Biden would do a better job 58 - 36 percent; On handling the response to the coronavirus, Biden would do a better job 56 - 40 percent; On handling health care, Biden would do a better job 55 - 41 percent; On handling a crisis, Biden would do a better job 53 - 43 percent. MORE SAFE, LESS SAFE Fifty percent of likely voters say having Donald Trump as president of the United States makes them feel less safe, while 35 percent say it makes them feel more safe, and 14 percent say it doesn't have any impact on how they feel. Forty-two percent of likely voters say having Joe Biden as president of the United States would make them feel more safe, while 40 percent say it would make them feel less safe, and 16 percent say it wouldn't have any impact on how they feel. "While the president has been pushing the issue of safety to the center of the presidential campaign, it raises the question: Who most has your back, the current administration, or the challengers? As racial strife, a seemingly endless pandemic, and an economy on life support unnerve Americans, voters foresee a more reliable lifeline in the Biden Harris ticket," added Malloy. MAIL-IN & ABSENTEE BALLOTS, EARLY & IN-PERSON VOTING More than 4 in 10 of likely voters, 45 percent, say they think they will vote in person on Election Day. Just over one-third, 35 percent, say they think they will vote early by mail or absentee ballot, and 16 percent say they think they will vote at an early voting location. There are sharp divides along political party lines when it comes to the most popular mode of casting a ballot. A majority of Republicans, 64 percent, think they will vote in person, while a slim majority of Democrats, 51 percent, think they will vote by mail or absentee ballot. Among independents, a plurality, 45 percent, say they think they will vote in person.
I read that piece earlier and agree with much of it but since it’s only looking at presidential elections it messed 2018 which was a significant blue wave. The state came close to not only having every statewide office go DFL but also every US House seat except for one. That Keith Ellison who was facing allegations of domestic violence won the AG race rather comfortably was a sign of how bad shape the GOP was that election.
https://nyti.ms/2RNBO4j No One Picks Up the Phone, but Which Online Polls Are the Answer? There’s little transparency and not much evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of their approach. By Nate Cohn July 2, 2019 The transition away from live interview telephone polling is well underway, and online polls now make up the principal source of data on national public opinion. But the alternatives to traditional polling are not fully mature, and the absence of a clear set of standards for online polling research has opened the floodgates to unproven surveys of uncertain quality. Many of the new pollsters have become familiar enough that journalists and readers have started to cite them with confidence. It’s not yet clear they all deserve it. Of course, traditional live-interview telephone polls have been facing their own challenges. They have become very expensive, and they haven’t necessarily been faring that much better than many online surveys. But even today, there is substantial evidence that it remains easier to construct a high-quality live-interview telephone poll than an online poll of equal quality. Just as important, it’s easier to judge the quality of a traditional poll than a nontraditional poll. All of this makes it more crucial than ever for analysts to rely on an average of public polls, rather than citing individual surveys. And it raises the burden of proof on innovative firms to demonstrate the effectiveness of their approach. more at the link
I don't mean this to be dismissive or counter to your efforts, but for discussion sake what is your opinion of the effectiveness of polling? Especially with the current political climate? This is to OP or anyone reading.
