The polls can be wrong, in different directions at different numbers for different areas of the US. Good stuff: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...-wrong-may-help-biden-not-just-trump-n1244753
More reminders to not be comfortable. The latest polls show the race tightening in several swing states. While Biden's support is broader than Clinton's in 2016 the swing states are showing as tight of a race as then. In MN, WI, MI and PA Biden appears to be holding onto his 4-6 point lead. In FL, AZ, and NC Biden is holding on to a 1-2 point lead. The biggest difference from 2016 and 2020 is that the field of swing states is great expanded and Biden is holding or barely trailing a lead in OH, GA, IA, and TX. This election could still be a Biden blowout, a close Biden win, or a close Trump win.
Also to add the polls are tightening up for several Senate races. The AZ race is tightening and Kelly has dropped from the double digit lead to mid single digit leads. The NC race Cunningham is also clinging to a low single digit lead down from the double digit lead. IN a big surprise in MN the Smith's race is now a tossup from lean Dem. on RCP with some recent polls showing only a 3-4 point lead for Smith. As much as it might take time to sort out what happens with the Presidential race control of the Senate could also take time to be sorted out and is also far from certain.
This is a surprise, not as much as the +17 for Biden in WI by another high quality pollster but still a surprise (same poll show even back in sept). 814 is a small sample so greater room for error.
There are some weird things about this poll. DMR polls are normally the best in Iowa and they did correctly call the 2016 result but there are some weird things about this poll. For example, in the crosstabs they have Republicans winning the 1st district by 15 points. IA-01 was D+5 in 2018 so that's a 20 point swing in 2 years. There is no world where Finkenauer is only getting 36% of the vote in IA-01. Also the other weird thing is how Independents went from D+12 in the September poll to R+14 which would be a 26 point swing among independents. For the record, I think its very reasonable to think that Iowa will back Trump on Tuesday but this poll feels like an outlier in the same way as the ABC poll that you referenced. Also the other key thing to take away is that Ernst is underperforming relative to Trump so a narrow Biden loss could still result in a Greenfield win in the Senate race.
yea, it does look like an outlier. Trump was already slightly favored to win Iowa. This morning polls from NY/Time show the same old pattern of last few weeks polls - there has not been a movement either way.
The DesMoines Register poll is definitely something to worry about. I don't know how much of an outlier it is but if Trump is getting momentum there that is bad news for MN and WI. Polls still show a consistent Biden and Smith lead in MN but recent polls have shown both are tightening here. RCP moved the Smith Lewis race last week from Lean Dem to Toss UP.
I guess Trump saying he may never return to Iowa energized voters there. It would certainly help his chances in California.
This is one of the things that I find baffling about Trump's support and why Trump is a master marketer. He insults his supporters and their state yet they support him even more.
it resonates with his TV mythology, and a lot of people want a “strongman.” He gets his staff infected w ‘Rona, puts his debate coach in the hospital, lands confidantes in jail, leaves contractors stiffed. So insulting his own followers is on brand I guess.
It goes to the aspirational view of American culture that Trump peddles. It's the idea that part of being wealthy and successful means you get to treat people badly.
I think that's right. "You're fired!" for example. But importantly here, if you're a not-successful person with no real hope of being wealthy or successful, merely being part of Trump's tribe and wearing a MAGA hat might mean you get to treat people badly, to emulate your leader. I'm not suggesting all his followers feel that way -- not at all -- but that idea fits a lot of what we see, whether trying to run a bus off a road or hitting people-of-color at rallies, trying to kidnap an elected governor, etc. I'm sure us agreeing on things makes for fascinating reading.
Another high quality pollster had Biden up 17 in WI 4 days ago. That’s more stunning than this. Which of these two outliers do you want to take up?
