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Bros, the rebounding is really, really bad.

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by bmd, Apr 21, 2020.

  1. bmd

    bmd Member

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    I didn’t realize quite how bad until the other day.

    Over the course of the year, the Rockets were 14th in rebounding, and 16th in defensive rebounding.

    The past 14 games, since they committed to going small, they have ranked dead last in both rebounding percentage and defensive rebounding percentage.

    I’m not saying they have to be a top rebounding team to win, but they’re not gonna win anything being dead last in rebounding. They have to be at least in the top half.

    I don’t see any way they can improve their rebounding this year. They’re just too small.
     
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  2. bmd

    bmd Member

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    For more context, Russell Westbrook has the highest rebounding percentage on the team. He ranks 159th in the NBA in rebounding percentage.

    The it’s Covington, ranked 163rd, and Tucker who is ranked 197th.

    Harden, 252nd
    House 331st
    Rivers 439th
    McLemore 457th
    Gordon 498th (that’s second to last, by the way for all players playing at least 10 minutes per game)


    Clint Capela ranks 14th


    Now, I think they needed to make the Capela/Covington trade because Covington is a much more rare player than a capable center, but this season their rebounding is suffering big time.
     
  3. jacoby

    jacoby Member

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    The championship Heat era were almost always dead last in rebounding, too.
     
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  4. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    This isn’t surprising nor is it a new topic. This was already understood when this team committed to small ball from day 1.

    This has been discussed on numerous occasions how the rockets mitigate rebounding and how they make up the difference in other areas.
     
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  5. bmd

    bmd Member

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    The Heat had one of the top defenses in t he league. They could get away with it. The Rockets don’t have that luxury.
     
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  6. bmd

    bmd Member

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    That’s my point. I don’t see how it’s possible to improve the rebounding or make up the difference in other areas.

    They’d have to be one of the best in the league on defense or limiting turnovers or something. But they are not near the top at either of those things.
     
  7. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    It is possible and it’s been discussed. It’s aggregated by the additional offense and improved perimeter defense. The search button is your friend. Most of us have been talking about it since feb. just a quick couple of threads but there’s plenty more with plenty of posts addressing this.

    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.php?threads/analyzing-our-last-3-games.303633/#post-12837031


    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.php?threads/no-truer-indication.303949/#post-12866256
     
  8. SamFisher

    SamFisher Virtuous

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    Even worse, it's like they've barely rebounded at all the past month.

    Not where you want to be heading in to May
     
  9. bmd

    bmd Member

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    Yeah, I know how it’s POSSIBLE to mitigate it, but I have seen no signs of them being able to.

    The poster above mentioned the LeBron/Wade Heat not being a great rebounding team... but they were ranked 3rd in defensive rating. They were elite on defense.

    The Rockets have been average on defense the entire year, both before and after the trade. Their offense would have to be one of the best ever to get away with an average defense and worst in the league rebounding, and then then I’m not sure it’s enough.

    I see no hope in improving the rebounding this season, so that means they HAVE to pick up the defense. To have a real shot, they have to improve defensively, big time.
     
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  10. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    Huh. You’ve seen no signs. There’s actual games where it’s already happened. And it was happening. That’s the point. Was it a finished product no. But they were trending in a much better direction than prior to the trade where all the pieces didn’t necessarily fit. The threads linked are talking about actual games. Especially the all mighty gigantic team lakers who will destroy the rockets on the rim over and over. Don’t overlook the threads bc you’re stuck on this notion that this is the first time this topic has come up. It isn’t. Lets not ride with the lazy chuck claims now. And the rockets have found ways to make up for the more often than not concede of the rebounding battle. It’s not conventional basketball. It isn’t supposed to be so your expectations should have been adjusted a long time ago
     
    #10 YOLO, Apr 21, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2020
  11. TilmanFinancialWindfall

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    When you got a 6'4" dude playing PF/C...that's what you're going to get unless his name is the Round Mound of Rebound
     
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  12. bmd

    bmd Member

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    Maybe it’s been too long since they’ve played and you’ve forgotten, but what you’re saying isn’t accurate at all. They started off hot after the trade, but then fell off a cliff.

    The last 5 games before the suspension of the season, they went 1-4. Dead last in defensive rebounding. Their 115.5 defensive rating would put them dead last. Even their offensive rating was 23rd.

    And those losses weren’t to good teams. They were to teams like the Knicks, Hornets, and Magic.

    They have shown no signs they can consistently defend. My theory as to what happened after the trade is that the Rockets were playing incredibly hard after the trade to prove the small ball naysayers wrong, and they were able to put together a nice 6 game winning streak. But they relaxed just a little bit and started getting absolutely trucked.

    They were only winning due to superior effort and other teams failing to adjust.
     
  13. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    What I’ve said is accurate and it’s already been said. You’re just refusing to see it. And exactly “your theory”

    Since you’re seemingly refusing to go through the threads and searching old posts

    nvm the fact that the rockets have forced and scored on more turnovers all while keeping their own down as one of the ways to aggregate things is something you don’t see. You’re stuck on pure conventional basketball. Again you’re not supposed to be. @coyotetex thread posted previously dived very well into the actual numbers

    Your mind seems to be set on your “theory” yet reality has shown different but continue believe what you want to believe.
     
    #13 YOLO, Apr 21, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2020
  14. SamFisher

    SamFisher Virtuous

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    Knicks finished out the season strong, losing only 3 games in March/April
     
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  15. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    The Rockets could have done decently in the playoffs with an outside shot of winning it all. Smaller likelihood than the prior 2 years, imo. But higher maximum likelihood. In other words, I think DM further increased variance/performance volatility... but simply because Russ when playing at an all-star plus level is better than CP3 still, then maximizing lineups that allows him to do that gives you higher upside potential... but also higher downside potential.

    Personally.... I have not done any advanced statistical modelling of this or anything, but the "eye-test" leads me to believe this is the one area where I've disagreed with DM from a mathematical standpoint of building a team. He's focused too much - either by design or happenstance (a result of going small, or being only 3's, layups and 2's) on teams that have high performance volatility. Then when things happen like going 0-27 from three in the most important game in 2 decades, it's easy to say "who would have predicted that!!". Even with that, though, that team got to that point, imo, because it had the least variability in other areas of any Harden team - consistent defense, lower turnovers, solid enough rebounding, etc.

    That doesn't mean I don't think a bad rebounding team can't win a ring. Very few teams are perfect, and even dynastic teams have shortcomings in certain areas. But the NBA does typically have dynastic teams and low parity, and having high performance volatility in that environment doesn't make sense to me. Even after going small, seemed like they were either "wow, this **** really works" or "wtf... they can't beat the Knicks?"... it was an improvement, but still too much variability.

    The move to small ball made sense for the state they had made it to with Russ and James. But they shouldn't have made it to that state. Clint and EG were both pretty valuable assets, imo, last offseason. I liked (really) Clint, and still do, but obviously keeping him would have sucked anyway with the injury, and his production/value made him potentially really solid trade bait. EG was coming off a solid playoffs.

    The Rockets should have kept CP3 - always an injury risk, but the steady hand needed next to James imo - and moved Clint and EG for meaningfully improved forward play. Forwards are more valuable than centers. Forwards are more valuable than backup guards on a team with 2 all-star level guards anyway.

    The ENTIRE reason the small ball was working in the first place was because of the value of Covington. Not that this was necessarily available, but I'd rather the lineup of CP3, Harden, Covington, Tucker, Capela to Russ, Harden, House, Covington, Tucker or any 3 guard lineup starting Gordon. Better, more consistent defense, fewer turnovers, better shooting. If you wanted to move Clint for another forward ala Covington, you could have done that, while having the offseason to find a legit C replacement for Clint as well.

    If basketball ever starts again, lol, I still think this is the route to take. By that time perhaps EG is tradeable. I don't see Russ/Harden winning it all together as the 1-2 punch. Neither is strong enough defensively. Both have games that vary too much. A guard that can't shoot 3s is a problem ultimately against great playoff defensive teams. I actually loved/love watching Russ play, too.

    The future of the NBA are forwards that can effectively play 1-5, score inside and out, and defend all over the court... imo.

    The Rockets have nothing close to this.

    Doesn't mean there won't be great players at more classic true positions... but to have none of the, and all your money allocated to other positions, especially one position - guard -is non-sensical.

    The move for Covington was a right start...
     
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  16. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    I try to look at the 0 turnovers instead.
     
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  17. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Easter Egg Hunter - Tell me why? نحن عائلة

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    Covington is no Bosh who was a borderline superstar at that time. He just adapted as a super role player.

    WB is not even Wade, there are things he does better though.

    Harden is essentially a worse defending, much shorter, 3 pt shooting and less athletic Lebron.
    Lebron was at his absolute prime.
    Wade a little past his prime but still 90%.

    GOAT of this era Lebron to Wade was better than Nash to Stat, Deron to Boozer, as good as Stockton to Malone, much better than Harden to WB connection.

    Chalmers, Cole, Ray Allen, Miller, Anderson, Battier, Haslem..... I think they had better veterans off the bench too.

    Much better Defense.

    Almost night and day.
    A dwarf version and less talented.

    I agree with the sentiment that the Heat would be unstoppable if they had Top 10 rebounding.

    They maximized shot selection without shooting tons of 3s. Lots of 2s.
     
    #17 daywalker02, Apr 22, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2020
  18. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Easter Egg Hunter - Tell me why? نحن عائلة

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    I am thinking it was still shaky.
    When WB was coming to his own, Harden started to have his bad games, having bad shooting nights.
    WB and the entire team pulled through in most of the games.

    I think this is not possible every game in the playoffs where Harden must be his best but sometimes he is just lost and fatigued in critical situations in the postseason.

    Teams were coming back in the 3rd or 4th, a long sung lore.

    I doubt that Covington can block 3-4 times a game as he was doing in the regular season, that was entertaining af though.

    Fatigue puts stress on everyone, and I am sure a couple of starters would go down with injuries without the Covid-19 break.
    Being undersized would take its toll.
     
    #18 daywalker02, Apr 22, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2020
  19. Reeko

    Reeko Member
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    being that bad at rebounding puts too much pressure on them to be elite in other areas like defense which is something they could only manage in spurts

    people forget that a big reason we lost game 5 against GS last year was because we couldn’t secure 2 key defensive rebounds in the final minutes, nor could we consistently get stops as they shot 50% from the field and 45% from 3 in the 4th quarter

    Tucker probably would’ve been dead come playoff time if things had continued with this 24/7 small ball

    Harden defending in the post so much would’ve worn down his legs...IIRC, he was leading the league in possessions spent defending the post...he did really well as usual, but still

    league worst rebounding, inconsistent shooting, and inconsistent defense isn’t a championship formula...Robert Covington was an excellent addition, but I still think they need a big

    Harden gets another option on his drives, and we get help on the boards and in the paint

    if Russ really can’t manage to play well if there’s a big on the floor then that’s ridiculous

    Russ
    Harden
    Covington
    Tucker
    Big man

    I like a lineup like that...then i can go small for extended periods if u wish like we did back in 17-18

    Rockets could’ve lost a playoff game or 2 because the rebounding margin was too much to overcome or they just couldn’t get a defensive board in the 4th quarter of a close game...things like that could make all the difference in the world
     
  20. mfastx

    mfastx Member

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    Yup, we're gonna have to either improve our rebounding or our defense. Not gonna win anything until we do one of those.
     

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