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Attack on Libya imminent?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by basso, Mar 17, 2011.

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  1. MiddleMan

    MiddleMan Contributing Member

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    Soon
    USA on N Korea.
    USA on Syria.
    USA on Iran.
    USA on Venezuela.
     
  2. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
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    Bahrain, member of the Arab league. On the same if not greater scale. It's just far easier to contain when it's a US ally, one island, and ~ 800,000 people.

    Nevermind that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are in there killing Bahrainis as well.
     
  3. Relentless

    Relentless Member

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    We must go deeper...
     
  4. bingsha10

    bingsha10 Member

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    Whatever happened to being against the military industrial complex?

    Saddam Hussein torturing his people wasn't a good enough reason to be for that.

    I'm confused. I thought that war was bad. That's what the left has been telling me for the past 10 years.
     
    1 person likes this.
  5. madmonkey37

    madmonkey37 Contributing Member

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    Looks like the first bombs have been droped by western forces. Heres an analysis by stratfor.

    [rQUOTEr]The Libyan War of 2011
    Created Mar 19 2011 - 18:33

    Related Special Topic Page
    Libya Unrest: Full Coverage
    By George Friedman

    The Libyan war has now begun. It pits a coalition of European powers plus the United States, a handful of Arab states and rebels in Libya against the Libyan government. The long-term goal, unspoken but well understood, is regime change — displacing the government of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi and replacing it with a new regime built around the rebels.

    The mission is clearer than the strategy, and that strategy can’t be figured out from the first moves. The strategy might be the imposition of a no-fly zone, the imposition of a no-fly zone and attacks against Libya’s command-and-control centers, or these two plus direct ground attacks on Gadhafi’s forces. These could also be combined with an invasion and occupation of Libya.

    The question, therefore, is not the mission but the strategy to be pursued. How far is the coalition, or at least some of its members, prepared to go to effect regime change and manage the consequences following regime change? How many resources are they prepared to provide and how long are they prepared to fight? It should be remembered that in Iraq and Afghanistan the occupation became the heart of the war, and regime change was merely the opening act. It is possible that the coalition partners haven’t decided on the strategy yet, or may not be in agreement. Let’s therefore consider the first phases of the war, regardless of how far they are prepared to go in pursuit of the mission.

    Like previous wars since 1991, this war began with a very public buildup in which the coalition partners negotiated the basic framework, sought international support and authorization from multinational organizations and mobilized forces. This was done quite publicly because the cost of secrecy (time and possible failure) was not worth what was to be gained: surprise. Surprise matters when the enemy can mobilize resistance. Gadhafi was trapped and has limited military capabilities, so secrecy was unnecessary.

    While all this was going on and before final decisions were made, special operations forces were inserted in Libya on two missions. First, to make contact with insurgent forces to prepare them for coming events, create channels of communications and logistics and create a post-war political framework. The second purpose was to identify targets for attack and conduct reconnaissance of those targets that provided as up-to-date information as possible. This, combined with air and space reconnaissance, served as the foundations of the war. We know British SAS operators were in Libya and suspect other countries’ special operations forces and intelligence services were also operating there.

    War commences with two sets of attacks. The first attacks are decapitation attacks designed to destroy or isolate the national command structure. These may also include strikes designed to kill leaders such as Gadhafi and his sons or other senior leaders. These attacks depend on specific intelligence on facilities, including communications, planning and so on along with detailed information on the location of the leadership. Attacks on buildings are carried out from the air but not particularly with cruise missile because they are especially accurate if the targets are slow, and buildings aren’t going anywhere. At the same time, aircraft are orbiting out of range of air defenses awaiting information on more mobile targets and if such is forthcoming, they come into range and fire appropriate munitions at the target. The type of aircraft used depends on the robustness of the air defenses, the time available prior to attack and the munitions needed. They can range from conventional fighters or stealth strategic aircraft like the U.S. B-2 bomber (if the United States authorized its use). Special operations forces might be on the ground painting the target for laser-guided munitions, which are highly accurate but require illumination.

    At the same time these attacks are under way, attacks on airfields, fuel storage depots and the like are being targeted to ground the Libyan air force. Air or cruise missile attacks are also being carried out on radars of large and immobile surface-to-air (SAM) missile sites. Simultaneously, “wild weasel” aircraft — aircraft configured for the suppression of enemy air defenses — will be on patrol for more mobile SAM systems to locate and destroy. This becomes a critical part of the conflict. Being mobile, detecting these weapons systems on the ground is complex. They engage when they want to, depending on visual perception of opportunities. Therefore the total elimination of anti-missile systems is in part up to the Libyans. Between mobile systems and man-portable air-defense missiles, the threat to allied aircraft can persist for quite a while even if Gadhafi’s forces might have difficulty shooting anything down.

    This is the part that the United States in particular and the West in general is extremely good at. But it is the beginning of the war. Gadhafi’s primary capabilities are conventional armor and particularly artillery. Destroying his air force and isolating his forces will not by itself win the war. The war is on the ground. The question is the motivation of his troops: If they perceive that surrender is unacceptable or personally catastrophic, they may continue to fight. At that point the coalition must decide if it intends to engage and destroy Gadhafi’s ground forces from the air. This can be done, but it is never a foregone conclusion that it will work. Moreover, this is the phase at which civilian casualties begin to mount. It is a paradox of warfare instigated to end human suffering that the means of achieving this can sometimes impose substantial human suffering itself. This is not merely a theoretical statement. It is at this point at which supporters of the war who want to end suffering may turn on the political leaders for not ending suffering without cost. It should be remembered that Saddam Hussein was loathed universally but those who loathed him were frequently not willing to impose the price of overthrowing him. The Europeans in particular are sensitive to this issue.

    The question then becomes the extent to which this remains an air operation, as Kosovo was, or becomes a ground operation. Kosovo is the ideal, but Gadhafi is not Slobodan Milosevic and he may not feel he has anywhere to go if he surrenders. For him the fight may be existential, whereas for Milosevic it was not. He and his followers may resist. This is the great unknown. The choice here is to maintain air operations for an extended period of time without clear results, or invade. This raises the question of whose troops would invade. Egypt appears ready but there is long animosity between the two countries, and its actions might not be viewed as liberation. The Europeans could do so. It is difficult to imagine Obama adopting a third war in Muslim world as his own. This is where the coalition is really tested.

    If there is an invasion, it is likely to succeed. The question then becomes whether Gadhafi’s forces move into opposition and insurgency. This again depends on morale but also on behavior. The Americans forced an insurgency in Iraq by putting the Baathists into an untenable position. In Afghanistan the Taliban gave up formal power without having been decisively defeated. They regrouped, reformed and returned. It is not known to us what Gadhafi can do or not do. It is clear that it is the major unknown.

    The problem in Iraq was not the special operations forces. It was not in the decapitation strikes or suppression of enemy air defenses. It was not in the defeat of the Iraqi army on the ground. It was in the occupation, when the enemy reformed and imposed an insurgency on the United States that it found extraordinarily difficult to deal with.

    Therefore the successes of the coming day will tell us nothing. Even if Gadhafi surrenders or is killed, even if no invasion is necessary save a small occupation force to aid the insurgents, the possibility of an insurgency is there. We will not know if there will be an insurgency until after it begins. Therefore, the only thing that would be surprising about this phase of the operation is if it failed.

    The decision has been made that the mission is regime change in Libya. The strategic sequence is the routine buildup to war since 1991, this time with a heavier European component. The early days will go extremely well but will not define whether or not the war is successful. The test will come if a war designed to stop human suffering begins to inflict human suffering. That is when the difficult political decisions have to be made and when we will find out whether the strategy, the mission and the political will fully match up.
    http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110319-libyan-war-2011
    [/rQUOTEr]
     
  6. bingsha10

    bingsha10 Member

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    Until very recently Gaddafi was an ALLY of the US. He did absolutely everything we wanted him to do. He dismantled his nuclear program. And now that there is a civil war we turn on him? Is he ethnically cleansing innocent civilians or fighting a civil war against armed rebels.

    This smacks to me of arming Al Queda in Afghanistan, funding Saddam, and any other number of grayish, not above the line situations the US has involved itself in from the Bay of Pigs to Iran-Contra to the present day.

    Interesting read.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/doug-bandow/war-in-libya-barack-obama_b_838049.html
     
  7. BleedsRocketRed

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    oil oil oil... everything is always about oil now.
     
  8. DaleDoback

    DaleDoback Contributing Member

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    This is the question I have been debating people at work about. I did not know Innocent civilians had the power to overrun towns and villages. It appears like the Rebels vs the Government Civil War more than a Government based Protest crackdown. So that leaves me to question....again. What is in this for us? Financially or Politically speaking.

    I like how Q worded his letter to the UN as well. He directly asked Obama what he would do if Rebels took over cities and towns in the US. What would his response be?
     
  9. basso

    basso Contributing Member
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    there's a solution to this problem:

    [​IMG]
     
  10. basso

    basso Contributing Member
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    indeed. at the risk of sounding like the backslapping cadre: great post.
     
  11. AroundTheWorld

    AroundTheWorld Insufferable 98er
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    Why don't they bomb his residences? Or do they?
     
  12. bigtexxx

    bigtexxx Contributing Member

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    Thanks.

    Obama simply cannot do what a leader must do -- make a decision. He's indecisive and weak -- like an amateur. We are witnessing his "on the job training", but he's got the world's most powerful economy and military at his disposal. Scary.
     
  13. basso

    basso Contributing Member
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    8 years to the day since W started bombing Iraq.

    wish I'd written this:

    What I like about Obama

    Obviously, the biggest problem with Bush was sending the military into an Arab Muslim country that hadn't even attacked us. Among the several things that made that offensive were
    * the rush to war - it was only several months after the possibility of military involvement was raised that combat operations began
    * lack of United Nations sanction - only 17 relevant resolutions were ever passed before they were enforced
    * lack of Congressional oversight - the President authorized the use of military force based on the flimsy pretext of a bill passed by Congress titled "Authorization of the Use of Military Force", rather than seeking a document that had the words "declaration of war" in it; that's every bit as bad as getting no Congressional approval at all
    * obvious financial motives - clearly no one approved of the murderous dictator or sought a normal working relationship with him besides the French; at the same time, one couldn't help but be suspicious of the fact that the population we were ostensibly protecting was located conveniently near the oil fields
    * stretching our military - we were overburdened as it was, and our brave military despite its courage lacked the resources for yet another operation
    * inflating our military - the only way to keep the bloodthirsty Pentagon beast fed was to give it the hordes of jobless young men who had no prospects in an economy that saw unemployment skyrocket above 4% in most states
    * ignoring our generals - the decision to go to war was made by political hacks who had never worn a uniform
    * inflaming the Arab Street - despite some touchy-feely talk about Islam, it was impossible for the Muslim world not to notice how the President made repeated, insistent proclamations of his Christianity, how he only ever used the military against Muslim targets, and how at the time the war started he'd kept the concentration camp at Guantanamo open for over a year
    * wasting money - it was completely irresponsible to commit the military to an expensive mission when the President's fiscal mismanagement had resulted in a budget deficit of over $150 billion in 2002

    But anyway, what I really like about Obama is that he's gone 29-3 in his bracket picks over the first two days. You have to spend a lot of time watching college basketball to be that good.
     
  14. basso

    basso Contributing Member
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    more from bgates:

    Barack Obama has now been responsible for firing more cruise missiles than all other Nobel Peace prize winners combined.

    He's still in 2nd place for number of Arab deaths caused (and 3rd place for Muslim deaths) behind Yassir Arafat and Mikhail Gorbachev.
     
  15. Major

    Major Member

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    That's probably because you weren't paying attention very much or creating your own caricature of them. The left fully supported 3 of our last 4 major military interventions - Gulf War I, Bosnia, and Afghanistan, though support for Afghanistan has obviously dropped since. They only strongly opposed Iraq II.

    The first three had the full and complete support & participation of the international community and did not hurt US relations with allies around the world. The latter was the opposite. Libya is far more similar to the first set than Iraq II. The idea that the left is a bunch of peaceniks while the right is a bunch of warmongers is silly.
     
  16. da_juice

    da_juice Member

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    As a pacifist I rarely support armed conflict.

    This is an exception.
     
  17. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    Man, that is just too funny... too rich...

    What he should do is wait until 2 days after the teams play and then fill in his brackets. It's called the Palin method.
     
  18. bigtexxx

    bigtexxx Contributing Member

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    LMAO

    so true
     
  19. Don FakeFan

    Don FakeFan Member

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    Correction. It's the Libya people. It is a slaughtering action on Libyan people.

    That "UN" should be condemned and hopefully God could punish them for their crime.
     
  20. Don FakeFan

    Don FakeFan Member

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    [​IMG]
    Are they still the civilians because they are on Ghaddafi's side?
    Are we really going to kill them to get our enemy and their oil?
     

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