These statistical analyzes are somewhat worthless in Lin's case. A 25 game sample is not enough. You really need a season or two. Plus there's so many other factors. Lin wasn't a rookie pg guard. Carmelo coming back into the line-up definitely affected his play for the worse, as did the adjustments made from scouting. End of the day, 25 games is just way too small of a sample and these numbers can change drastically if he has a string of 2 or 3 great games or really bad ones so you can't put much stock in them. Stats have their limits. They don't account for the type of offense and the other guys on the floor. A player will have to adjust his game based on those things, and in some situations will be more effective than others - meaning his teammates play a big role in which type of shots he chooses and to some degree the level of difficulty of shots he is being forced to take.
That's fair, but Lin's 920 minutes is small but not THAT small of a sample size. It's a risk yes and less reliable, but certainly not small enough to dismiss it completely as worthless as some of y'all are doing.
Morey has said frequently that you don't need as many games in basketball to establish a sample as in other sports, because there are so many possessions in every game. I don't really know how many minutes makes a stable sample but it may not be as many as some of you guys are thinking. But yes, the SSS does make any statistical analysis for Lin more volatile. That doesn't make it worthless though.
There was a thread in the garm during the season of lin v dragic. I thought dragic is the far superior player. Today, I still think the same. Dragic is one of the best finishers at the rim period. He's a ballhawk on defense. He attacks and is a very god athlete. I would've preferred to keep dragic and pay him vs paying lin.
Again, any statistical comparison has to be taken with a grain of salt because of the small sample size. And shooting percentage is the one thing that varies a lot in a short period. Dragic shot very well. It was a concern whether he could sustain the rate. Anyway, it's fine if you prefer Dragic over Lin. I wouldn't mind if we could have Dragic with the same price. But remember, the deal breaker wasn't dollar per year. It was the LENGTH of the contract. Dragic asked for a 4th year player option. Lin's contract is 3 years. If Dragic took the same length, we wouldn't have to argue about this.
wtf are you saying? whenever you talk about Lin you're always pulling these random ass numbers from different websites. and now, when the numbers support the fact that Lin is a good player, you are not going to accept them?? i see a.... hypocrite!! and an ignorant hypocrite at that.
and a far older player that has probably already reached his ceiling. lin is younger and has great potential. when you're a mediocre team you need to take a few gambles, i have no problem with this.
and he's 23. if any 23 year old played like that for 920 minutes, i would take him in a heartbeat. he has shown flashes of greatness, i dont see why we wouldn't want to take a chance on him i guess some of the guys on CF love to be mediocre..
it's not the number of minutes or possessions or whatever that matters in statistics. It's the number of shots and drives and different situations he has been in. And in 20 games, you aren't going to have that many pull up jumpers, drives, post-ups, etc.
It will be very interesting to see how Dragic and Lin (and Lowry for that matter) perform. Barring injuries, they all will be full-season starters for their respective teams.
If Lin is the best of the three how much should we bow down and worship Morey? Not much more $ per year than Lowry and we got a lottery pick out of the PG change.
He seems like someone who doesnt know how to play off the ball. It wasn't just Melo but with Amare and JR Smith too, he throws the ball to them in the post/mid to high post and doesn't understand the importance of spacing, he literally doesn't move away from the ball and his man just shades into the post where Amare, Melo or JR Smith There are lot of glaring weaknesses, such as he cant go left, he has trouble with turnovers and if they put an athletic SG or SF defender on him. THese are things no advance stats will show you gotta see it with your own eyes
Percentage he goes left, turnover rate, and wouldn't all players struggle against big athletic defenders?
He can DEFINITELY go left. Were you there when that Joe guy posted about 16 million photos of him going left during games? The thing is we don't need more off the ball players. Our problem is we've constantly loaded up our team with too many glue guys and we haven't had a go-to guy scorer. Lin is potentially a go-to scorer at the end of games due to his proficiency in ISO sets.
He can go left doesn't mean hes competent going to his left. He always brings it back to his right and cant really finish well with his left. Im still not sold on him, it was only 25 games and yes he was spectacular but if he is truly a great player he should've made it work with Amare and Melo when they were there, it rarely brought any success, he just couldn't find with other all star offensive options on the floor. Maybe the Rockets are heading the AI route, where you have a rebounder here, a defender there, a point forward there, a few three point shooters and everything is fit around Lin
For what we're paying him, he doesn't need to be a great player, he just needs to be a starting caliber PG. I think that's a reasonable mid range outcome for him. With the worst case being good backup PG and the best case being all star.
It's also worth noting by the way that Melo is an ISO-oriented perimeter scorer. It makes sense that he wouldn't work very well with Lin. Fortunately, we're not trying to pair Lin with a Melo type, we're trying to pair him with an interior big man like Dwight or Bynum.
