I am absolutely 100% all for a Correa extension to make him an Astro for life. I know there’s risks, but I think he is the exact type of guy you want to be the face of the franchise for the next several years.
To complete the offseason... Sign Kevin Pillar 1 year 5 million Sign either Carlos Rodon or Jeremy Jeffress for 1 year 4 million possibly with a 2nd year option. Lineup: Altuve 2B Brantley LF Bregman 3B Alvarez DH Correa SS Tucker RF Yuli 1B Pillar CF Maldonado C Bench: Castro, Diaz, Straw, Toro Rotation: Greinke Framber Urquidy McCullers Rodon/Javier Bullpen: Pressly Paredes Baez Smith Stanek Taylor Raley Javier/Jeffress
Fangraph’s projections for players the Astros are pursuing... Hand - 3 yrs/27.9 mil Bradley Jr. - 2 yrs/20 million Colome - 2yrs/16 million Profar - 2 yrs/15 million Rosenthal - 2yrs/13 million Pillar - 1yr/5 million
Of the deals so far, Brantley was a great deal. Castro...Astros needed a catcher, and the price was fine for him. Astros could have gotten Flowers or Avila probably for around same price. Astros could have gone cheaper, but gotten a worse catcher. Stanek....looks like a great deal. If it falters...not much spent, but he could also be one of the top relievers on the team. Baez...I hope he is okay, but this deal looks like it will make Click decide between another OF or a better reliever. It is really starting to look like Straw will be a starting OF.
I'm not as down on giving Straw an extended look as others are. What most feared would happen with Straw happened last season, pitchers started relentlessly attacking the strike zone and he was perpetually behind in the count. Still, it was a really small sample, and there was no ST. Maybe he can adjust and manage to get on at a 34-35% and become a 2nd leadoff hitter in the 9 spot. If he can, it will be another cheap locked in player we can pencil in and use that money elsewhere for the next few years. It isn't as if the alternative are maulers. We can always trade for a glove pretty easily if he continues to be overwhelmed.
I think with Straw a lot of it depends on how highly you think of his glove in centerfield. If the Astros think he can play near gold glove level defense then they can probably roll with him. The Astros also are likely going to want to reserve some money if they decide to make a midseason trade or an injury.
I am hoping Houston at least brings in some insurance to compete with Straw, even if it’s just Marisnick or Maybin on a <$2M deal. But I agree, there is a decent chance Straw can be a decent everyday CF. He has elite elite speed, almost as fast as a player like Billy Hamilton. And whereas Hamilton hit the ball ~80mph, Straw hits it ~87mph, so Straw has a decent amount of pop, he just tends to hit the ball in the same place and on the ground. Straw is a relatively inexperienced player for his age, so there may be some untapped development that could help him be a stud defensive player and a serviceable hitter. His 2020 season made it seem very unlikely he will reach it, but his ceiling is still pretty high, something like Kevin Kiermeier. His likely outcome (something like Billy Hamilton) isn’t bad, so I’m cool with them running him out there if they think he represents the best value.
Given they're roughly 13 mil below the luxury tax (after the Castro signing) it might behoove them to hold off signing anyone else so they could be in a position to make a move at the trade deadline.
If I had to guess based on the background of Click, he will give Straw a long leash in centerfield because the possible pay off of having a centerfielder under team control for 5-6 years is worth too much. Last year Straw was awful but it was an unusual circumstance, and the year before last he was markedly better. Overall you are hoping realistically for an OPS of .700 over a full year and figure the likely floor is an OPS of .600-650. With his speed, glove and ability to make contact, you hope he finds ways to contribute where his net contribution far exceeds a standard .700 OPS.
Which payroll numbers are you using? Cots and roster resouce/fangraphs have different numbers. Plus you have to take into account the spread in the Correa aribtration. We looked into this last week and came up with a range of 176 to 184 million before Brantley and Castro. So somewhere between 195 to 203 million depending on the site used and the Correa arbitration after signing Brantley and Castro. I'm hoping for Pillar. He was better than Reddick so you might actually be improving the offense a little with a Pillar signing if Alvarez replaces the production from Springer and Pillar is better than Reddick.
FWIW, Chandler Rome is quite emphatic that there will be no more 'splash' deals, and he explicitly included Hand, Colome. I assume JBJ or AB would count there too. I think Straw is our CF starter and the bullpen will be by committee. Which is fine as a way to enter the season - plenty of time to make a deal once we see what we have.
Your best bet for a "splash" move would likely be a trade. I would expect the Astros to go bargain shopping at this point. If one of the bullpen arms like Rosenthal slips through the cracks, they will have the money to offer something but other than that, it will be guys that either are very flawed (Pillar) or that are reclamation projects. There will be some interesting players that will get deals that are close to the minimum and the Astros may get one or two of those guys.
I'm not asking what the luxury tax is. I am asking what numbers you used to say the Astros were 13 million under the luxury tax? Cots? Roster resource/fangraphs? Spotrac? They all have different numbers and some don't take into account the Correa arbitration possilbilities. 13 million left under the luxury tax falls within the range of what we found, but is on the lower side of the payroll range and likely includes Correa losing arbitraton.