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[Official] Astros Off Season

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Oct 18, 2020.

  1. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Looks like somebody finally figured out how much money you lose with state or Canada income tax...
     
  2. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    I am absolutely 100% all for a Correa extension to make him an Astro for life. I know there’s risks, but I think he is the exact type of guy you want to be the face of the franchise for the next several years.
     
  3. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    To complete the offseason...

    Sign Kevin Pillar 1 year 5 million

    Sign either Carlos Rodon or Jeremy Jeffress for 1 year 4 million possibly with a 2nd year option.

    Lineup:
    Altuve 2B
    Brantley LF
    Bregman 3B
    Alvarez DH
    Correa SS
    Tucker RF
    Yuli 1B
    Pillar CF
    Maldonado C

    Bench: Castro, Diaz, Straw, Toro

    Rotation:
    Greinke
    Framber
    Urquidy
    McCullers
    Rodon/Javier

    Bullpen:
    Pressly
    Paredes
    Baez
    Smith
    Stanek
    Taylor
    Raley
    Javier/Jeffress
     
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  4. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    Fangraph’s projections for players the Astros are pursuing...

    Hand - 3 yrs/27.9 mil
    Bradley Jr. - 2 yrs/20 million
    Colome - 2yrs/16 million
    Profar - 2 yrs/15 million
    Rosenthal - 2yrs/13 million
    Pillar - 1yr/5 million
     
  5. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Bradley and Colome please
     
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  6. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Of those Profar and Pillar look like ok values, those reliever prices are too high for my taste.
     
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  7. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Of the deals so far,

    Brantley was a great deal.
    Castro...Astros needed a catcher, and the price was fine for him. Astros could have gotten Flowers or Avila probably for around same price. Astros could have gone cheaper, but gotten a worse catcher.
    Stanek....looks like a great deal. If it falters...not much spent, but he could also be one of the top relievers on the team.
    Baez...I hope he is okay, but this deal looks like it will make Click decide between another OF or a better reliever. It is really starting to look like Straw will be a starting OF.
     
  8. sealclubber1016

    Supporting Member

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    I'm not as down on giving Straw an extended look as others are.

    What most feared would happen with Straw happened last season, pitchers started relentlessly attacking the strike zone and he was perpetually behind in the count. Still, it was a really small sample, and there was no ST. Maybe he can adjust and manage to get on at a 34-35% and become a 2nd leadoff hitter in the 9 spot. If he can, it will be another cheap locked in player we can pencil in and use that money elsewhere for the next few years.

    It isn't as if the alternative are maulers. We can always trade for a glove pretty easily if he continues to be overwhelmed.
     
  9. Nook

    Nook Member

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    I think with Straw a lot of it depends on how highly you think of his glove in centerfield. If the Astros think he can play near gold glove level defense then they can probably roll with him.

    The Astros also are likely going to want to reserve some money if they decide to make a midseason trade or an injury.
     
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  10. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    Thank the White Sox for that.
     
  11. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I am hoping Houston at least brings in some insurance to compete with Straw, even if it’s just Marisnick or Maybin on a <$2M deal. But I agree, there is a decent chance Straw can be a decent everyday CF. He has elite elite speed, almost as fast as a player like Billy Hamilton. And whereas Hamilton hit the ball ~80mph, Straw hits it ~87mph, so Straw has a decent amount of pop, he just tends to hit the ball in the same place and on the ground.

    Straw is a relatively inexperienced player for his age, so there may be some untapped development that could help him be a stud defensive player and a serviceable hitter. His 2020 season made it seem very unlikely he will reach it, but his ceiling is still pretty high, something like Kevin Kiermeier. His likely outcome (something like Billy Hamilton) isn’t bad, so I’m cool with them running him out there if they think he represents the best value.
     
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  12. the shark

    the shark Member

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    Given they're roughly 13 mil below the luxury tax (after the Castro signing) it might behoove them to hold off signing anyone else so they could be in a position to make a move at the trade deadline.
     
  13. Nook

    Nook Member

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    If I had to guess based on the background of Click, he will give Straw a long leash in centerfield because the possible pay off of having a centerfielder under team control for 5-6 years is worth too much. Last year Straw was awful but it was an unusual circumstance, and the year before last he was markedly better. Overall you are hoping realistically for an OPS of .700 over a full year and figure the likely floor is an OPS of .600-650. With his speed, glove and ability to make contact, you hope he finds ways to contribute where his net contribution far exceeds a standard .700 OPS.
     
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  14. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    Which payroll numbers are you using? Cots and roster resouce/fangraphs have different numbers. Plus you have to take into account the spread in the Correa aribtration.

    We looked into this last week and came up with a range of 176 to 184 million before Brantley and Castro. So somewhere between 195 to 203 million depending on the site used and the Correa arbitration after signing Brantley and Castro.

    I'm hoping for Pillar. He was better than Reddick so you might actually be improving the offense a little with a Pillar signing if Alvarez replaces the production from Springer and Pillar is better than Reddick.
     
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  15. cmlmel77

    cmlmel77 Member
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    FWIW, Chandler Rome is quite emphatic that there will be no more 'splash' deals, and he explicitly included Hand, Colome. I assume JBJ or AB would count there too. I think Straw is our CF starter and the bullpen will be by committee. Which is fine as a way to enter the season - plenty of time to make a deal once we see what we have.

     
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  16. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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  17. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Your best bet for a "splash" move would likely be a trade.

    I would expect the Astros to go bargain shopping at this point. If one of the bullpen arms like Rosenthal slips through the cracks, they will have the money to offer something but other than that, it will be guys that either are very flawed (Pillar) or that are reclamation projects. There will be some interesting players that will get deals that are close to the minimum and the Astros may get one or two of those guys.
     
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  18. the shark

    the shark Member

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    MLB site has the luxury tax at 210 million for 2021.
     
  19. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    I'm not asking what the luxury tax is. I am asking what numbers you used to say the Astros were 13 million under the luxury tax? Cots? Roster resource/fangraphs? Spotrac? They all have different numbers and some don't take into account the Correa arbitration possilbilities.

    13 million left under the luxury tax falls within the range of what we found, but is on the lower side of the payroll range and likely includes Correa losing arbitraton.
     
    #1899 Redfish81, Jan 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2021
  20. the shark

    the shark Member

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    Spotrac.com
     

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