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Updated 5 year outlook

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Snake Diggit, Aug 2, 2019.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    The good old "kick the can" days. The Astros have the "can" now.
     
    vince likes this.
  2. vince

    vince Member

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    Yeah, I remember that. It was a Bush-league mentality, the Astros needed to build that chemistry; which they were going to do with good faith efforts towards their races horses. So you get one year more of arbitration, at the expense of some burnt bridges....

    As fans it sucks when out favorite player leave for richer contracts, but it’s overall good for the league to spread the talent. MLB has a system in place if your best guys leave you MAY get young assets as compensation. So the development process starts all over again, but eh 4 years fly by a lot faster than I’d want....
     
  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/astros-rumors-luxury-tax-gerrit-cole.html

    MLBTR reads clutchfans. I think if they get rid of Reddick they can just slide under the cap. But the fact remains that they are unlikely to be able replace their good free agents without going over the cap. But the more I learn the more I believe there’s no real penalty unless a team goes WAY over or goes over more than 2 seasons in a row.

    Looking at today’s roster, here are the pending free agents and their projected replacement:

    Chirinos TBD
    Maldonado TBD (Stubbs)
    Cole : TBD (Whitley, Framber)
    Miley : McCullers
    Harris : TBD (C Perez, Ferrell, Deetz)
    Rondon : Abreu
    Smith : Peacock/Devenski/Biagini
     
  4. Jeremy Williams

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    Well, your projected replacements are assuming a bit--like no trading and no FA acquisitions.

    While Crane and co. will have their work cut out if they really want to stay under the tax, I fully expect us to replace at LEAST 3-4 of our impending FAs with external options.
     
  5. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    My current expectation is:

    1. Trade Reddick with a couple 3rd tier prospects to get some financial wiggle room.
    2. Acquire a pre-arb late inning reliever (Barlow?) using 2nd and 3rd tier pitching prospects (try to replicate the Pressly trade).
    3. Resign Chirinos to something like $10M/2yr.
    4. Wait out free agency and sign someone desperate (Maldonado?) or trade for a cheap backup catcher (Narvaez?).
    5. Wait out free agency and sign a cheap veteran starting pitcher whose market doesn’t materialize and/or is desperate to pitch for a contender; otherwise, trade for a salary dump starter (Samardzija? Duffy?).
    6. Non-tender or trade players to get under the tax (order of preference: Sanchez, Biagini, Devenski, Peacock, Marisnick, Diaz).
     
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  6. Jeremy Williams

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    My expectations that I consider realistic:

    1. Resign both Chirinos and Maldanado. Luhnow should have learned by now that it is incredibly important to have quality C's on the roster, especially given our other elite options across the board on offense. Both of these players WANT to be here and both should come in on a short-term contract given their age. IF we win the WS, I see them staying. I think we can get both for 2 years and 15 mill total. Stubbs needs to stay as our AAA backup.
    2. Trade Reddick and Devo and a couple of B level prospects in order to free up $, while also taking back a couple lower level prospects in return.
    3. Resign Harris to a 3 yr, 18 mill contract.
    4. Make a real pitch to keep Cole, but if he signs elsewhere for more $, go the Miley/Morton-type route and save $. If Cole resigns, non-tender Sanchez.
     
    Snake Diggit likes this.
  7. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    Sanchez should be non tendered completely and totally independently of any other moves. He won’t be back in time to do anything for us. The only thing other than non-tendering him that would make sense is some manner of extension like a 3/15 million type contract where he gets paid to rehab himself and stay with an organization, as opposed to being out of baseball and hoping to come back. But no, they aren’t going through the arbitration process with him.
     
  8. Jeremy Williams

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    That depends on what the estimated arbitration #s would be.
     
  9. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    No it doesn’t. The Astros aren’t keeping him around, for any dollar amount, to rehab for the entirety of his walk year. He’s extended or gone. Full stop. It’s a 12-15 month recovery time.
     
  10. Jeremy Williams

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    Ah, I thought Sanchez was in Arb 2. Good call.
     
  11. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    Nope. I was wondering why the back and forth. Thought maybe I must be missing something on the timeline of the rehab or something. I know it’s not a common surgery, but the last guy who had it done was like 14 months and I heard Luhnow say “he will likely miss most of next season” which in Astros injury speak means, “the patient is likely terminal”
     
  12. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Houston has ~30 extra pitchers slated for full season ball next season, and most of those are viable prospects it would be a shame to release. That feeds my thinking that Houston can use pitching prospects to trade for a good late inning reliever and a backup catcher. Save all the money to use on a starting pitching and starting catcher.

    5 trade targets for backup catcher:
    Omar Narvaez
    Willians Austudillo
    Reese McGuire
    Curt Casali
    Tom Murphy

    5 free agent catcher targets:
    Chirinos
    Grandal
    Castro
    Avila
    Maldonado

    5 Cole-esque targets:
    Robbie Ray
    Jon Gray
    Daniel Norris
    Dylan Bundy
    Jake Odorizzi

    5 Verlander-Greinke-esque targets:
    Hamels
    Price
    Bumgarner
    Porcello
    Samardzija

    5 Morton-esque targets:
    Jordan Lyles
    Andrew Cashner
    Kyle Gibson
    Brett Anderson
    Homer Bailey

    5 Pressly-esque targets:
    Scott Barlow
    Scott Oberg
    Andrew Chafin
    Braden Shipley
    Buck Farmer
     
    #192 Snake Diggit, Oct 5, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2019
  13. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    The chronicle article on Chirinos and Verlander last week mentioned Alex Avila caught all but one of Verlander’s starts in his best year with the tigers. I would be thrilled with a Chirinos/Avila platoon next season. Avila also caught Greinke in Arizona this season.
     
  14. donkeypunch

    donkeypunch Contributing Member

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    If we could swing Austudillo for cheap, I would be all over that. I don't know their situation with Castro through. Minnys best catching platoon going forward would be Garver and Austudillo.

    I do like Avila as a fa signing as well.
     
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  15. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    MLBTR posted arbitration estimates:

    Astros (10)

    • George Springer – $21.4MM
    • Brad Peacock – $4.6MM
    • Jake Marisnick – $3.0MM
    • Aaron Sanchez – $5.6MM
    • Lance McCullers Jr. – $4.1MM
    • Carlos Correa – $7.4MM
    • Roberto Osuna – $10.2MM
    • Chris Devenski – $2.0MM – club option for $2.825MM
    • Joe Biagini – $1.5MM
    • Aledmys Diaz – $2.4MM
    Sanchez is sure to be non-tendered. I have 2020 payroll (not aav) at $206M for the projected 26 man roster (includes Reddick, but not Sanchez). Dealing Reddick seems like a foregone conclusion. My prediction is if they win it all, they will go over the tax in 2020-2021 and sign a top SP (Cole), extend Springer, and add good C and RP. If they don’t win it all, they will stay under the tax, giving them ~$15M to spend to fill holes at SP, C, and RP (assuming they dump Reddick and Sanchez). That would require some bargain shopping (Cashner/Lyles types at SP) or using prospects to trade for cheaper good players.

    Good news is that even if they have to stay under the tax, the rosters for 2020-2021 still profile to win ~105 games (assuming they get right up to the tax threshold both years), and the 2022-2023 rosters profile for ~90 wins, with ~$130M in payroll room in 2022 and ~$90M in 2023.
     
  16. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    For luxury tax purposes, Astros appear to be ~$220M with keeping everyone except Sanchez, adding player benefits ($15M), and rounding out 40-man roster ($4M). For actual money, I get $221M including the player benefits money, $206M without.

    Assuming adding catcher, RP and dropping Reddick's contract is a net zero in dollars, adding Cole would bring cost to $266 actual money and $253M for tax purposes.
     
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  17. Nook

    Nook Member

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    The Astros almost got Avila in a trade last year.

    Also unless it doesn’t work financially, Astros development team is high on Lyles and will target him.
     
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  18. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    Trade Brantley, Reddick, and Greinke

    Resign Cole
    Trade for Trey Mancini
    resign Chirinos/Maldonado
    resign Will Harris
    sign a Miley type


    CF Springer
    2B Altuve
    3B Bregman
    DH Alvarez
    LF Mancini
    1B Gurriel
    SS Correa
    RF Tucker
    C Chirinos

    Marisnick
    Straw
    Diaz
    Maldonado


    Verlander
    Cole
    McCullers
    Urquidy
    FA/Whitley/James/Abreu/Javier



    Osuna
    Pressly
    Harris
    James
    Abreu
    Devenski
    Peacock
    Biagini
     
  19. Senator

    Senator Member

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    Whit Merrifield and Mikhael Trout are the only big name guys i look at.

    Altuve or Springer and Correa for Trout, an absolute game changer who you cannot pitch around in this lineup and performs in all situations against anyone. Angels don't have pitching to go anywhere for a long time and they owe it to him.

    Trade Greinke and Reddick, resign Cole at $200 million over 6, look for gems.

    Win or lose WS I make the leap to trout.
     
  20. astros123

    astros123 Member

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    jesus i cant imagine what this subsection will look like if the Astros lose tomorrow. For gods sakes please dont lose tomorrow so we dont have an invasion of GARM posters.
     

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