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Updated 5 year outlook

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Snake Diggit, Aug 2, 2019.

  1. CK Johnson

    CK Johnson Member

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    Hit the damn ball pls.
     
  2. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Ok, your prediction in August 2019 of an outbreak postponing a MLB season is creepy.
     
  3. PhiSlammaJamma

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    It's been updated to 5 year look out.
     
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  4. msn

    msn Member

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    This thread is

    Outlook now as opposed to a year ago is not nearly as good.
     
  5. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Outlook for 2020 is not as good.
    Verlander's status for 2021 may make the .2021 outlook more murky.

    Javier, Taylor, Paredes, Valdez, and Tucker have upped their projections making 2022 and 2023 look better.
     
  6. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Not sure I agree with that at all. Tucker now looks like a star, 3 potential front line SP have emerged (Urquidy, Valdez, Javier), and a large group of long term bullpen arms have had some success in the majors (Taylor, Paredes, Scrubb, Garcia, Perez). As Joe said, the outlook for 2021 may be down a bit, since Verlanders future is in doubt and Altuve may be showing signs of decline. But further out (2022-2024) things looks quite a bit better than they did 12 months ago.

    They will have to find longer term answers at C, SS, CF, and Verlander/Greinke, but none of those answers has to be superstars, and they should have enough payroll flexibility to do it (or possibly even answers on the farm). It’s totally feasible for this to be a 95-100 win team every year thru Bregmans contract end in 2024.
     
    #206 Snake Diggit, Sep 18, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2020
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  7. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Current projected 2024 roster:
    C: Lee, Stubbs ($5M, 2.5 war)
    IF: Bregman, Altuve, Toro, Pena, Jones, Nova ($65M, 15.5 war)
    OF: Tucker, Straw, Barber, Alvarez, McCormick ($20M, 12.5 war)
    Total for position players: $90M, 30.5 war
    SP: Whitley, Valdez, Javier, Urquidy, TBD free agent ace ($53M, 13 war)
    RP: Pruitt, Abreu, Scrubb, Perez, James, Paredes, Taylor, Santos ($18M, 6.5 war)
    Total for pitchers: $74M, 19.5 war
    Total: $164M, 50 war, 102 win projection
     
    #207 Snake Diggit, Sep 18, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2020
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  8. awc713

    awc713 Member

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    What is the consensus on Korey Lee? IIRC, he had Napoli comparisons on draft day. Are we just looking at hopefully an average MLB catcher? Any legit likelihood that he turns out to be really good?
     
  9. Nook

    Nook Member

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    It is very hard to know what the future holds for the Astros..... this entire season is just bizarre. Does anyone really think Altuve would be this bad had the season started like it should have normally without COVID? I certainly don't.

    The Astros lost a LOT this last off season, they essentially lost their bullpen, best starting pitcher, starting catcher.

    Taking Verlander out of the equation for a minute, the largest need for the Astros entering this season was to have starting pitcher depth develop and at least one outfielder.

    Well, their starting pitching develop is likely beyond their highest expectations.... Urquidy has looked very good, Valdez has been very consistent and has the makings of a #2-3 starter. Christian Javier has shown that he is very hard to hit and I think has a 50/50 chance of being a good starting pitcher long term..... so the Astros have to be quite have with their rotation coming into next year IF Verlander avoids TJ surgery.

    As far as the outfield goes, they have not developed the depth they hopes. Straw has not become a viable starter at this point. However, Kyle Tucker has made a massive step forward, and not just as a guy that bats 6-7th in the line up; but a middle of the order bat. So overall they have to be happy about that.

    The bullpen has some pieces..... most likely either McCullers or Javier ends up closing at some point next year. Taylor looks like someone that can be solid and there are some others like Scrubb and Perez that have shown promise.

    Maldonado has been solid at catcher and proven he can be a starter on a good team.

    Don't confuse the Astros STRUGGLES this year due to injuries, with the Astros future necessarily being more bleak.

    There are some concerns....... Pressly just doesn't seem like he is good. Osuna is done as an Astro. We need Altuve to play well.... but most of the concerns are for 2020 and not 2021.
     
  10. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Anytime a catcher has an average hit tool and plus power, he has a very high ceiling. Napoli would be a good outcome for Lee, but I actually think his ceiling is higher than that. It is probably unlikely that he will be an elite defender, but an average defensive catcher who posts in the 110-120 wRC+ range is a 3-4 win star level player.
     
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  11. AstrosRockets1818

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    I’ve told myself for years that McCullers will be the Astros future closer. I’m not sure he will like it tho.
     
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  12. SamCassell

    SamCassell Contributing Member

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    I don't have the same confidence that others have in the bullpen. Guys like Scrubb, Perez etc. walk too many batters to be effective long term. I'd like to see McCullers in relief, too, but I don't know if he wants that role. Other than Taylor, I'm not confident that there are many answers there, long term. That might be an area where the team needs to spend in the short term. But they've been generally adverse to doing that. Maybe there's a trade like the Osuna trade or the Giles trade that they'd consider for a good reliever with years of club control.
     
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  13. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    But then he goes and throws 7 innings with 8K's with pinpoint control and efficiency, mixing 3 quality pitches.

    While having a reliable closer is valuable... having a starter capable of those sorts of performances still provides more impact.

    I do think its a tad presumptive to write him off as a starter (unless he hurts his arm again). Most first years post-TJ are sort of like this one has been... some great performances, some mediocre ones, and a few shitty ones (that may have been due to a neck issue).

    He does need to figure out how to pitch away from MMP.... as do most of the pitchers this year apparently.
     
  14. awc713

    awc713 Member

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    I think the 5 year outlook for this team is still really positive. As much national backlash as Crane has gotten...I do like him. I really wish he would publicly defend the Astros a bit more, bit I understand that his hands are tied. You know he wants to win again, plus, he's proved that he'll spend $$$, sign off on big time moves, and doesn't seem to dabble in baseball opps (shoutout Fertitta, McNairs, Drayton...). Click seems like a good GM, too. I miss Luhnow and Hinch...but we should be alright. 2020 has been a disaster for the MLB, not just the Astros. I think we barely have the talent and depth (shoutout Luhnow) to survive the loss of picks, especially with the surprising play of some of our pitchers. Hopefully HOU can remain at the front in terms of development as well, and hopefully 2020 is just a throwaway year for everyone.
     
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  15. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    On Click, I've liked the starters being used as relievers when off days permit. There have been a few interviews that Dusty and Click seem to have bad or no communication. On some things, it looks like Dusty has a lot of power. Other times, he has no idea what is going on such as status of injured players. I'm surprised Bielak and Garcia haven't had openers.

    Not sure how Click is going to affect 5 year outlook.
     
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  16. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Will be very interesting to see his approach. The Rays are strangely built; they have made every kind of move with no consistent theme other than avoiding big contracts altogether and doing a fantastic job of identifying and developing young talent. I wonder if Click will carry that over, in which case we’ll see some window-extension moves that might seem to make the team worse in the short term, or if he will take a more balanced, risk averse approach now that he seemingly works for an owner willing to maintain a top 5 payroll.
     
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  17. whiskeyred

    whiskeyred Contributing Member

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    Whole season has been bizarre and honestly I’ve struggled to stay interested
     
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  18. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Verlander being out next season is a huge blow for the Astros. That combined with Altuve’s potential premature decline may change the entire trajectory of the franchise.

    Without Verlander and the other pending free agents, Houston projects to between 88 and 92 wins in 2021; still a likely playoff contender but nowhere near the quality of team they were from 2016-2019. They should have significant payroll flexibility, as that roster would project to only $146.5M, including $33M for Verlander (I don’t know if Houston has any kind of insurance against injury for him, but I consider it unlikely).

    The idea of rebuilding certainly becomes more plausible in the wake of Verlander’s surgery. They’d have 2 major shorter term trade chips in Greinke and Correa, several “blockbuster” trade chips in Bregman, Alvarez, and Tucker, and a host of secondary assets of varying value. Houston certainly has enough big league assets to bring back the type of prospects that could catapult the farm system back into the top tier in a single season, while simultaneously clearing the payroll out almost completely (aside from Altuve).

    Still, if I were GM I would be inclined to continue trying to compete. This coming offseason I would be looking for 2-3 cheap short term fixes on offense (at CF and LF) while focusing the majority of the payroll flexibility on replacing as much of Verlander’s production as possible. Counting on adding a relative value like Houston did with Morton is probably unwise, but even adding just a 3 win pitcher and a couple 2 win OF puts Houston in range of a 100 win projection.

    All of a sudden Click has a really tough job in front of him.
     
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  19. punkoholic

    punkoholic Member

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    A couple of dumb questions

    1)I'm more of a hockey guy and it's like this in hockey but does baseball have a long term injury reserve list? Can Houston place him on LTIR so if they decide to replace him via free agency or trade, it won't effect the team payroll for 2021(luxury tax line). Or no such thing, Verlander's contract will still be in the active payroll so if Houston looks for a replacement, they would be further deep into the luxury tax line?

    2)last time I mentioned insurance and someone said no insurance in contracts for baseball. Is that true? So Crane is paying all of Verlander's contract next year? So if Click wanted to sign a big player to replace him, Crane would have to pay both Verlander and the new guy just to replace Verlander? With Covid and uncertainty if fans will be allowed in next season, will Crane be willing to spend on both Verlander and new guy?
     
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  20. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    No such thing. There is no salary cap in baseball like in other sports. MLB contracts are guaranteed. Only caveat is that it is possible that Houston had an insurance policy against an injury to Verlander, in which case they could make a claim and recoup some money, but I personally highly doubt that is the case. Most likely, Crane just lost $33M. It remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on mlb payrolls moving forward. A lot of people expect a very chilly free agent market. The odds of Springer accepting a QO have gone up significantly since the start of the season, as have the odds of Gurriel or Brantley coming back on a very affordable short term deal.
     

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