Dedicated Poll thread.

I don't think the polls matter at all. We know Trumpers aren't honest in polling just like their hero is a born liar. The only poll that matters is the electoral college total, that hideously stupid non-Democratic mechanism that can elect the guy who didn't get the most votes.

 

I'm all for throwing shade at polls, as many do in this thread, but if any group of Americans is likely to (1) own land lines, (2) pick up random calls, and (3) answer a question honestly, it would be Americans over 65.

Data could still be complete crap, but that surprising result is a little more close to having meat on the bones than any poll suggesting it knows the leanings of people 50 and under.

 

Two latest polls YouGov and Sienna College show Biden's lead in MN at 9%. Three weeks ago there were polls showing Trump tied or even leading in MN.

 

The electoral college should be abolished it is anachronistic creature foisted on us due to slavery and the need to get the original colonies together.

 

Biden gains edge in Arizona over Trump and has big lead in Minnesota — Battleground Tracker poll
BY ANTHONY SALVANTO, JENNIFER DE PINTO, FRED BACKUS, KABIR KHANNA AND ELENA COX

SEPTEMBER 14, 2020 / 6:50 AM / CBS NEWS

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-trump-poll-arizona-minnesota-09-14-2020/

 

https://poll.qu.edu/kentucky/release-detail?ReleaseID=3673

Big news in that one is that Graham is tied with his challenger in South Carolina. Also looks like Collins is done in Maine.

Just reading the stuff about those polled in Kentucky...the basically hate Mitch, but would rather have him because he's not a Democrat...even though McGrath seems to get good marks.

 

Very possible...there's also a good chance that the pollsters have swung too far in the opposite directions after 2016 and are just assuming that the spread can't be as big as it really is so they are overcompensating. Problem is...the polls in 2016 weren't wrong...they said Hillary by 3% and she won by 3%...it was the state polls that weren't correct (still, they weren't off by much).

If you look at 2018, the polls actually leaned heavily right...(same as in 2012); it's possible that pollsters continue to think that there will be a heavy silent-Trump vote, but he ends up losing in a landslide.

 

These polls are probably outliers but that doesn't really change the reality that things are looking bad for the Republicans.

Aside from the Senate races, the interesting thing is that the poll in Maine has Biden up comfortably in Maine's second district (although I suspect the race in ME-02 is much closer). Winning ME-02 and NE-02 (where Biden is also ahead right now) creates a scenario where Biden can win by just flipping Michigan and Pennsylvania. ME-02 and NE-02 plus Michigan and Pennsylvania get Biden to 270. Basically it gives Biden another path to winning without Florida or Wisconsin.

As for the Senate races, it looks like Collins is probably finished. She hasn't really led in any public polling and this is just yet another poll demonstrating her weakness. Also its important to note that Sara Gideon's approval ratings keep increasing as Maine gets to know her. So Collins is facing the problem of her own declining approval ratings and an opponent that seems to be well liked. Gideon can probably run up the score in the first district and just has to keep things somewhat close in the second district.

The South Carolina race will probably tease Democrats but South Carolina still has the same DNA as much of the deep South. Democrats can always get close but getting the last five percent is extremely difficult. South Carolina just doesn't have enough urban voters (unlike North Carolina). I don't think Democrats will win this but they have to keep trying and putting forward good campaigns to create the potential of eventually winning down the road. At the very least, this means that Joe Cunningham (SC-01) is probably a reasonable favorite for re-election.

As for Kentucky, Democrats missed their chance of getting rid of McConnell. The time to strike was the 90s when Coal Country was still voting for Democrats. I guess Democrats did came somewhat close in 2008 but they'll never get that type of map again. Now that eastern Kentucky is voting for Republicans, there just isn't a path to victory anymore.

 

enlightened or brainwashed?

 

Friends well-connected in NC saying the (Dem) governor there is popular and up by like 20 pts. This could have a strangely up ballot effect on Senate and POTUS voting, but it would be very small, I expect.

 

That isn't that surprising. North Carolina was the one state in the deep south that really hasn't stopped electing Democrats statewide. Democrats still hold a decent number of statewide offices. I think the question should be reversed and the question should be about Biden's impact down the ballot. Voters in North Carolina vote for Democrats more frequently on down ballot elections than the Presidential election so a narrow Biden win could be enough to help Democrats win all 11 statewide elections on the ballot (although a couple of the statewide offices have long time Republicans so that might be a bit of a reach).

 

Any insights on Vietnamese support ?

 

From 2016. Basically, sort of like the Cuban vote which normally goes Republican. Many Vietnamese in America left during the Communist takeover and are not fans of socialism and bigger government.



Asian-Americans Continue To Drift Away From The GOP, But It's A Complicated Story