Abandon the 3 - It’s time

It's easy to defend?

Houston is launching 41.8 three pointers per game so far this year. Of those attempts, 16.9 of them are open (nearest defender 4-6 ft) and 17 of them are wide open (no defender closer than 6+ feet). So 33.9 of those 41.8 attempts are either open or wide open 3s. Defense's haven't adjusted, we're still getting a ton of open shots but we're missing them.

We're getting the open shots that we are suppose to get but we aren't hitting them. Midrange isn't going to change anything. We've been shooting midrange badly too. See a pattern? Our shooting sucks from everywhere right now.


EDIT: Currently, the Rockets are shooting 43.5% from midrange. That's not too impressive and is the equivalent of shooting 28.7% from behind the arc. The telling number though is that our 43.5% shooting from midrange makes us the 5th best midrange shooting team in the league. That shows just how inefficient midrange shooting is across the league.

 

You don't have to abandon it just use it wisely. 6 for 41 tonight isn't using it wisely.

 

Mid range can help you find your stroke. Plus 2 points is better than 0 any day of the week. Morey has truly messed the game up with his analytical approach.

 

I dont think we need to abandon the 3... but I do think we need a fallback plan on nights where they aint falling...

There are some teams (GSW) where we need to be firing on all cylinders and hoping they fall - its our only hope...

but mid to lower level teams can be beaten if we just play smart ball... if the 3 aint falling... work it inside to CC a bit more... try posting up Melo a bit... unleash some guys to take some midrange shots if the 3s arent falling...

it's called 'an adjustment' - we should try it...

it's the opposite of "We're just going to play our game and see what happens - the Mike D'Antoni Story"....

lol

 

Agreed. MOREY HAS FAILED to put a team together that compliments the style they want to implement. If you want to shoot three you need shooters. When your best pure shooters are PJ in the corner and a Rookie its tine to abandon that concept.

 

Never understood why we've always been a pioneer of the 3-point barrage but never seem to load the roster with actual marksmen. The E.G. and Ryno acquisitions adressed this, but it seemed a little ridiculous when the Rockets were leading the league in 3-point attempts by nearly 10 and Corey Brewer and J-Smoov were hoisting up as many treys as they could muster. The majority of the roster consisted of average to below average shooters back then.

I think the bigger issue is ball movement as other people have pointed out, but if we had a Korver, Reddick or Ingles I don't think these 6-40 3-point shooting nights happen.

 

They have shooters unfortunately they are missing.

 

They’ve been nic anderson’d from the perimeter

 

If you knew ahead of time that you were going to miss 14 3s and you also knew that you make a certain percentage from midrange then you would be correct.

The problem is that you dont know that. How many times has one of our players shot the 3 poorly only to get hot later in the game?

Also, if he's way off from 3, then why do you assume that he will suddenly be good from midrange. Look at last night. We shot the 3 badly at 22%. How did we do from midrange? We shot 0%. We missed every one.

Harden has never been a good midrange shooter at any point in his career. You are basing your thinking on something fictional.

Here's Harden's midrange percentage for every season that he's been in the league.

38.2, 40.2, 40.0, 33.5, 40.6, 37.3, 40.5, 41.1, 39.1, 40.0.

At what point in there did you consider him to be good from midrange?

You are suggesting that he switch to shooting a much less efficient shot that he has historically not shot well. The odds of that being successful are not good.

 

We talked lots about it in the Breh Drafts..... haha.

Gather mediocre shooters who can outshoot their contracts.

 

The reason that every team is now shooting many threes is because it is such an advantage.

Yes, in the '14-'15 season Josh Smith took 3.5 threes per game and he only shot 33%. That is indeed below average.

We've had quite a few guys shoot the 3 point shot in that 33% to 36% range. None of them have been elite from behind the arc.

Despite that, they still shot more efficiently on 3s than any team can shoot from midrange.

33.3% from behind the arc equates to 50% on midrange. No team in the league shoots 50% from midrange. Last year we shot 44% from midrange and that was the 2nd best percentage in the league. To put it in perspective, that's equivalent to shooting 29% from behind the arc. Why would you shoot something that inefficient ? Last year we shot over 36% from 3. Even this year, as badly as we have shot threes we've still been way more efficient than we are from midrange.

Basically, no one in the league who isnt named Steph Curry consistently shoots over 50% from midrange. Last year a total of 6 players in the entire league shot 50% from midrange.

If theres elite 3 point shooters available then I'm sure the Rockets would love to have them. The problem is that they are coveted by every team too.

How do you plan to acquire a Korver, Redick or Ingles? Korver's minutes have been declining every year. He's playing 15.3/game this year and he still makes $7.5m. Redick made $22m last year and he makes $12.2m this year. Ingles makes $13m this year.

If theres a way to go find an elite shooter that we can afford, then I doubt that we'd pass it up.

Theres just not that many elite shooters to begin with. Then factor in that many of them are one trick ponies that cant do anything else. Are guys like that going to get significant minutes for us?

If Kyle Korver got cut and signed here, how much does he play? Is he going to take significant minutes from Harden, Paul or Gordon? Is he going to be our SF/defensive stopper? Would he get enough minutes to be a difference maker?

That's a very long way of saying that we shoot 3s because its effective. As you said, we had no real elite 3 point shooters but we still had the most efficient offense in the league last year. That's why you shoot a large number of threes even when you dont have elite 3 point shooters.

This year, we are shooting poorly from everywhere. If we continue to shoot like this then it doesn't really matter what shots we attempt.

 

2>0

 

You can also find your stroke by continuing to shoot 3s. It happens all the time.

Yes 2 points is better than 0. Also, 3 is better than 2. If you are going to pretend that we are going to start hitting midrange all of a sudden then you should just pretend that we are going to hit 3s instead.

As badly as we have sucked shooting the 3 this year, it's still been way more efficient than we've shot midrange in our best years.

 

The most efficient shots are the ones that go in.

Math.

 

If basketball was played in Excel, you would be right. But it isn’t. And shot selection and success impacts more than just the score on that possession but also 1) the opportunity for offensive rebounds and the likelihood of that rebound leading to a score, 2) how the opposing defense reacts to your offense in later possessions, 3) the impact on your own defense on the subsequent possession, 4) and intangibles.

On 1) if your team is a good three point shooting team, the longer, more unpredictable rebound can be a positive as it makes it more likely that your team might get another chance for a three, and if you have players who can see the floor well, might lead to easy exploitation of gaps in defenses to hit a cutting player off the rebound. But it lessens the opportunities for offensive rebounds/quick putbacks. On 2) if you are not hitting three pointers, the other team will just sag off the shooters and make it more difficult to drive into the lane to create easy bucket opportunities or more wide open threes. This is definitely happened to the Rockets this year. On 3), missing long threes makes it easier for the other team to push the ball. So while 28% vs 44% gives you the same score on the big board, those increased misses are a godsend to a team that thrives off of the fast break but has a poor half court offense (think Thunder). 4) while making a bevy off threes may be exciting, missing a lot of them can be soul crushing and can lead to team chemistry issues and lackadaisical defensive effort.

So, sure, if I play bb on a spreadsheet I just might consider 28% 3PM equivalent to 44% MR2M. Otherwise, I’m going to have to consider a little bit more about how my own team is constructed as well as what the nature of the team I am playing.

 

aelliot taking many of you guys to school.

Hope y’all are paying attention.

 

We have no 3 pt shooters or even who specialize in 3 pt shooting. Why in the offseason we didn't get anybody. Poor job on management.