Abandon the 3 - It’s time

aelliott · Nov 11, 2018

TimV said: ↑

If basketball was played in Excel, you would be right. But it isn’t. And shot selection and success impacts more than just the score on that possession but also 1) the opportunity for offensive rebounds and the likelihood of that rebound leading to a score, 2) how the opposing defense reacts to your offense in later possessions, 3) the impact on your own defense on the subsequent possession, 4) and intangibles.

On 1) if your team is a good three point shooting team, the longer, more unpredictable rebound can be a positive as it makes it more likely that your team might get another chance for a three, and if you have players who can see the floor well, might lead to easy exploitation of gaps in defenses to hit a cutting player off the rebound. But it lessens the opportunities for offensive rebounds/quick putbacks. On 2) if you are not hitting three pointers, the other team will just sag off the shooters and make it more difficult to drive into the lane to create easy bucket opportunities or more wide open threes. This is definitely happened to the Rockets this year. On 3), missing long threes makes it easier for the other team to push the ball. So while 28% vs 44% gives you the same score on the big board, those increased misses are a godsend to a team that thrives off of the fast break but has a poor half court offense (think Thunder). 4) while making a bevy off threes may be exciting, missing a lot of them can be soul crushing and can lead to team chemistry issues and lackadaisical defensive effort.

So, sure, if I play bb on a spreadsheet I just might consider 28% 3PM equivalent to 44% MR2M. Otherwise, I’m going to have to consider a little bit more about how my own team is constructed as well as what the nature of the team I am playing.
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You don't have to believe me, it's not my idea. All you have to do is look at every team in the NBA and see how things have changed.

The number of 3 pointers shot has gone up dramatically over the last few years. It's not a few teams, it's across the board. There's a reason that the guys who get paid big bucks to run NBA franchises have moved their team in that direction.

There's a reason that every team is shooting a bunch of three's nowdays.

aelliott · Nov 11, 2018

acruz2 said: ↑

We have no 3 pt shooters or even who specialize in 3 pt shooting. Why in the offseason we didn't get anybody. Poor job on management.
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Who is it that you think that we should have acquired?

edwardc · Nov 11, 2018

That's where Melo made sense in this offense the team as a whole should adopt that way of thinking.

Zergling · Nov 11, 2018

Or not

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Abandon the 3 - It’s time

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