apparently you sheep haven't heard there was a drug named hydroxychloroquine. I've been taking it for several weeks. If I wanted, I could go In public licking door handles and would be fine.
I make the following comments having owned VTIQ and sold before the NKLA conversion/merger, owning no shares any longer, but still contemplating it as a future investment : I think it's important to remember that most innovators are met with "you don't know what you're doing", "that's too difficult", "you're nuts - that'll never work" commentary initially, then they prove them wrong. Many of the arguments against Nikola are the same arguments that were made against Jobs/Wozniak, Page/Brin, Bezos, Musk, Hastings, etc. I've been wrong about every one when they came on the scene. Why? Because they had a vision that seemed ludicrous and had no chance of succeeding, but then they evolved and/or drove innovation to transform the company. Page/Brin started Google ... they were a damn textbox on a screen. How are you guys gonna make money? lol. Jobs/Wozniak had no chance of gaining share on the desktop... couldn't compete with the likes of Nokia... good luck suckers! Bezos... Cadabra? lol. And you want to sell books ... Barnes & Noble will slaughter you. Hastings... you realize Blockbuster can do what you're already doing, don't you? They can flip a switch and drive you to oblivion. Moron. Musk ... Your car costs $100,000?? lol. And that's what you're trying to sell? Who's gonna buy it?! GM, Ford, VW can all do it in scale and do it better! You should've stuck to Paypal. I don't know if NKLA belongs in the same stratosphere as those names, but then those names didn't belong in the same stratosphere as Barnes & Noble, Blockbuster, Ford, etc. at one point, either. Here are some things I note about NKLA : They aren't really producing trucks yet en masse yet, but if you believe Trevor, they've started hand-building trucks for testing thanks to a factory in Germany. One of my concerns is that the they have to keep the steamroller going for at least another year or so before true production of the semi's kicks in. This is what I don't know how they'll do. Stock price appreciation can't continue at this rate when you're selling nothing but a dream and are around a year out from revenue. Well, at least I don't think so. But then I thought that when it was in the 20's, so what the hell do I know. "Trevor Milton isn't Elon Musk". True. But Steve Jobs wasn't Steve Wozniak, either. What's yer point? Companies need drivers and visionaries. Trevor has stated that he'll only be heading up the company for 4-5 years and then hand it off to people who can run it. You can take that as being a bad thing or a good thing. Page & Brin did something similar with Google when they hired Schmidt and again when they handed over the reigns to Pichai. Jobs was the face of Apple even though the nerds behind-the-scenes came up with the ideas. Jobs & Bezos drove their companies to success. Gates did both. There are examples of every combination of tactician, authoritarian, autocrat, etc. in the industry. So just because A isn't B doesn't mean A and B can't both be wildly successful. "NKLA doesn't really have any IP". This may be true (to what extent, I'm unsure). A lot of what has allowed NKLA to ramp-up is because they've borrowed expertise from existing companies, factories, manufacturers, etc. such as Meritor, Bosch, Wabco, etc. where they said they'd share the IP with them whereas TSLA has their own patents, factories, etc. Milton said this was because he didn't have billions of dollars to throw at this stuff initially. NKLA isn't about the Badger which is going to be a $60-$90k pickup truck. It's about the semis/long-haul trucking units and the fuel they'll manufacture and sell. This, combined with whether or not they can get a "charging" network built will be important in their development. After that, they can branch off into whatever else, whether it be more consumer product or a spaceship to Alpha Centauri. lol. There are some big backers behind them... Jeff Ubben and ValueAct Capital, for example. Building upon the above, Milton has stated that since the IP is "shared" among the other manufacturers that are helping them along, there isn't as big a moat around the semis and whatnot they're building like there is around TSLA where everything is in-house. So technically the technology going into the trucks initially can eventually be sold to others -- no hard barriers to entry (like the Tesla battery tech, for example). Their moat, according to them, is the hydrogen refueling network they'll need to build for all the vehicles because what they're hoping is that no matter who ends up using the shared IP's/tech, they'll be refueling at one of their stations. Keep an eye on the EU as they become tougher and tougher on reducing carbon emissions. If you're a day-trader, you're probably going to want to keep an eye out for the short interest in the stock as sharks like Andrew Left are already trying to drive it down. They've been successful in the past, but of course, also failed and wrecked in short squeezes. Left famously tried to take down TSLA and then all of a sudden came out and said "oops, I change my mind about TSLA not being a good company". lol. As usual, keep an eye out for TSLA and their truck release. It will have an impact on NKLA. Watch for what happens around June 29 to the stock with the Badger pre-order. Even though in the immediate term (next 6-12 months), the truck's sales shouldn't have anything to do with anything, it more than likely will cause a movement in the stock. I also don't know who they're partnering with to manufacture the truck. That should be interesting, as well. I'm guessing this stock will be pretty volatile intra-day in the wait for real production runs of their semis. Good luck to you guys still in it. I'm going to keep watching it, though, and may eventually jump back in depending on what I see.
Did you ever look into tattoed chef? I'm actually gonna hold this one for a while. Actually have some of their products in my freezer.
I made some money on BAC and dumped it for FMCI. FinTwit was talking crazy numbers, only time will tell.
i for IBB, over the past 5-6 wks, it has been "out of sight, out of mind". thus, the consolidation / holding pattern bringing COVID19 back to the headlines is a harsh reminder that that we're still in a pandemic, w no vaccine. this additional knowledge about a new effective treatment could be useful for the the biotech co included in the iBB who are still in development stage insofar as finding a vaccine for COVID 19
Having watched plenty of Trevor Milton’s interviews, it’s just increasingly obvious that he is a stock promoter that can’t tell the difference between manganese and magnesium. Can somebody please tell me already what he has an expertise in? When you put him in the same sentence as Gates, Jobs, Bezos, Page, Musk etc those are people who built up billion dollar, trillion dollar businesses from the ground up. What has Trevor built besides pumping a stock? Sure, those guys were once nobody’s too, but their companies were not valued at $30b before they even accomplished a single thing. Sure, there are the special ones that you can tell right off the bat that they are visionaries, Trevor ain’t it.
Costco, Sams Club, Walmart, and Trader joe as private label and under tattooed chef. Only in 7% of Walmart right now and hoping to be in 50% by end of year.
I've only looked into it enough to know many think it's undervalued based upon valuation in comparison with companies like BYND, but comparing it to BYND may be comparing apples to oranges. Everyone was expecting a meat-substitute play with this SPAC, but this ain't it. So now I'm left wondering what I'm holding since it's not what I hoped for which is usually a reason for me to sell a stock. That being said, Tattooed Chef is in Walmart, but only in something like 7% of Walmarts from what I've read. They're also in Costcos and Sams. They're also in the plant-based foods market which has been growing the past few years. This may be something people just jump on because it's a "plant-based" company rather than necessarily a "meat substitute" company, so again, it makes me wary. There was a big pop in it today, and, including afterhours run-up, it was up over 20% on the day. No idea why since the announcement of the merger was last Friday. But it could just as easily sell off soon, I guess. I'll hang onto this one for a bit longer -- I'm willing to take a bit of a beating on it to see what they're up to next. Either everything's coming up roses or it'll be pushing up daisies. lol. Still trying to find more info as to why it went up today. If you guys are bored : https://forummerger.com/tcip.pdf https://forummerger.com/investor.html
Is this like a philosophical question about "what did they build before they built that thing?" No rational person would compare Milton with any of those guys. Most speculators are wondering if his company will prosper - not him.
Musk built a video game at age 12. Built an internet yellow pages company and sold it for $300m before he turned 30. Built an internet banking company that combined into Paypal. Started SpaceX from scratch and was not only the ceo but the chief engineer and designer of the first ever rockets that can land. All before he started running Tesla. He’s had the backing of extremely powerful friends, and support of a cult like fan base with almost unlimited access to the public markets/funding. They build some of the best products on the market bar none. Despite all that, Tesla has been on the verge of failure multiple times, as recently as 2018/19. Again, what has Trevor done? What is he even good at? Auto manufacturing is a hard business to get into, what chances does he have at surviving? One more major advantage Tesla/Musk had when they started up, they didn’t have to compete against Tesla.
So again I ask you the philosophical question of what did they build before they built that first thing? I had a feeling you'd use Musk as the example. Now, using your examples, give me the billion or trillion dollar companies Gates, Jobs, Page/Brin, etc. built before they built what they were known for. Don't reach for the low-hanging fruit. And, again, few people are buying the company for Trevor. They're buying it for the technology/speculation on the industry. If we're in the 80's and 90's you'd be saying what big company Bill Gates had built to be competing against the likes of IBM. If you were looking at the founding of Apple, you'd be saying Jobs was a salesman selling snake oil not knowing he was a marketer and the brains of the outfit behind the scenes was Woz. You can't just look at the frontman and say whether the company will fail or succeed. The actual brains may be behind the company. Oddly enough, your comparison of NKLA to TSLA is the same thing they said about the iPhone to the phone market : "they don't know what they're getting into... they'll be competing against companies that know the industry... they don't know how to make a phone" (I was one of them). Also, as has been stated, they're not competing with Tesla on anything ... yet. They're not trying to win the "electric car" race. It's been stated many times. You're basically saying nobody that hasn't done something can do that thing until they've done that thing. NKLA has the cards stacked against them, but who knows. Microsoft, Google, Apple, Amazon, etc. all had the cards stacked against them with crazy ideas at one point, too.
A company is more than one man, but having that visionary leader was key to getting them to where they are. I’m a big believer in betting on the jockey, especially when it comes to creating new industries, disrupting old ones. Those guys built their companies from scratch, they were the brains, and vision behind those businesses. Even though Jobs wasn’t a technologist that created the products, he was a visionary that understood what people wanted, before people knew themselves. Those other guys all created their businesses from scratch. Trevor has built nothing except for a business plan, yet the stock is priced as if they’ve already won. What turns me off is that he talks like he has actually done something, yet when you listen to him talk about technical details he hardly knows his own industry. (There’s no magnesium in batteries, it’s manganese fool) Which is why he seems to be a snake oil salesman only interested in selling stock. Also Tesla vs legacy auto is the Apple comparison you are looking for, not nikola vs Tesla. And they do/will compete if Nikola ever comes to market with an actual product. Tesla has been validating/testing their own semi for almost two years so that’s a direct competitor. Not to say there can’t be more than one player, but Trevor just does not seem to be the one to make it happen.
Also Musk isn’t the low hanging fruit, he’s the only one on that list in the industry Nikola is trying to break into. It is a highly capital intensive business that is nearly impossible to start a new company in nowadays. And despite Musks accomplishments and all those advantages Tesla had, they still had tremendous struggles. Nikola with Trevor doesn’t have a chance, IMHO. For every Amazon there were a hundred Pets.coms. Just because you are a long shot that people doubted does not make you the next big thing. Vast majority of times, you are just that long shot. Especially if you don’t have that visionary founder.
People are investing in nkla because they feel like they missed out on tsla. That’s akin to thinking you missed out on bitcoin so you go out and buy the new one Ice Cube issued.
I tend to agree with you, but in my experience logically-thinking people can't compete with visionaries. lol. Logically-speaking, all I'm saying, a lot of people said the same things about all those companies you named : they'd fail for all the reasons mentioned. They were told why they'd fail and succeeded. Google, Apple, Tesla, Netflix, etc. are all companies I never would've thought would succeed like they have. I'm just saying when you only see one tree (like I have in the past), you're not the one to judge the forest. Tesla and Nikola only compete in the semi trucking industry and I say they don't even compete in that simply because neither one has anything yet to show for it yet. Even then, Nikola is not banking on electric - they're going for hydrogen with the ultimate goal of their sale of hydrogen and the refueling network to others being the end-game. From what I've heard, they don't really even care about the semi business except in the short-to-mid term so they can sell them to build that refueling network. For the brains you're talking about, they have other existing, proven manufacturers helping with the building of their trucks and refueling networks. They're similar to Tesla in the shift away from carbon-based fuels, but almost nothing like them in terms of IP and production. Again, I'm not saying they'll succeed or it's a good stock to buy. Chances are they'll flop. But they do have backing of bigger names and they do have money, so that's part of the speculation. True, but they also won't encounter a lot of the manufacturing and IP issues that Tesla had since much of the production of the Nikola product has been shared/outsourced to 3rd parties. Even the Badger pickup is being built with the help of another manufacturer. Also, their goal is to prove that hydrogen is the better value for the customer over electric. They're one of the very few attempting it. Tesla doesn't have that. Nikola will sell you either electric or hydrogen, but would rather dominate hydrogen because of the lack of competition at the moment. On the electric side, Tesla has to battle Daimler, BYD, Volvo, etc. Several current auto companies have plans to bring out electric big-rigs by next year. The reason I hopped off the Nikola wagon at least temporarily is because I don't see the valuation in a company that won't be producing anything for at least a year. That's going to be some big hype wagon to keep that price going, so I get what Milton's doing. With that being said, even Tesla's stock was driven by hype for the longest time. All they basically had was the Type-S which wasn't selling huge and hype about their batteries. Even now, I'm not sure the actual sales match the stock price appreciation for Tesla (even in retrospect).
for every AMZN, GOOG, TSLA, NFLX....... how many failures have been there? Easy to look at the ones that survived and say NKLA will do the same....
That’s akin to saying “look at all the restaurants that have failed; no one should start a restaurant”. No one here knows whether they’ll fail or succeed — people speculate. Also, no one says they will do the same — just the possibility is there. It’s a speculative stock.
I bought in a bit at $17, will add if it drops. If I'm reading the numbers right, at a 8++mil valuation given their current run rate isn't unreasonable for a growth company. GRAF had a big pop today too despite no news. More good news for Adyen: https://www.altfi.com/article/6718_adyen-adds-amazon-pay-integration-to-its-single-platform Still waiting for stripe to IPO!
