I think the problem in this logic is that for every Google, there are 10 others that fail. All the others had smart people that started the company, and all of them showed early promise. When you tell disruptors: "you don't know what you're doing", "that's too difficult", "you're nuts - that'll never work" you're right 90% of the time. That shouldn't keep you from making long shot bets, but the success rate is still pretty low.
Its not saying you shouldn't start a restaurant. Its saying you should be darn careful if you're going to invest in a bunch of restaurants.
Serious question... How has the market recovered so quickly and will it last? We still have the virus moving steadily through the country, 40 million approximately unemployed, only a small part of the population has returned to a normal life, new lockdowns in China, limited info on what the virus is doing in large areas of the world, no one is spending money, massive race riots with no signs of slowing, upcoming election that is sure to be contentious, etc. Are we heading towards another crash? Thoughts (and prayers) appreciated.
I'm starting to horde cash every paycheck I'd normally buy securities with but I'm no expert. That's just what I'm doing. This whole market feels surreal.
Markets are forward looking mechanisms. All those issues such as current virus status, riots, elections are generally already priced into stock and commodity prices. Will the equity rally continue is a totally different question. If one believes that countries will go back into full lockdown mode, then it might be best to sell. If one believes the worst is past us in regards to the virus, it would be prudent to keep buying.
Snowpiercer is literally attached to the world -- not a real world but an imaginary dystopian future... how close to reality could it become? Do you like roach power bars?
Disruptors are usually mocked at first, with tons betting it will fail before proving everyone wrong. That does not mean that every company that is mocked with tons of people betting against it will become disruptors. Most of the time those are just garbage companies. Tesla and Nikola both compete in the same imaginary market with future products, Tesla is actually ahead by at least two years since they have already been testing on the road. It does not matter whether your semi runs on hydrogen, electric, diesel, gasoline or unicorn farts, you are competing in the same market because you are selling to the same customers for the same use case - Pepsico, Walmart, Amazon etc. for long haul trucking. As commercial vehicles you need the best economics to make sense for your users. Hydrogen has been around for as long as battery electric, but never took off because of two reasons. 1. Economics, it just fundamentally isn't as efficient as battery electric. You need to put in more energy through the process of electrolysis to generate the hydrogen than the amount of energy you get out. Meanwhile BEVs take advantage of established industries to get their energy from the grid, and in the long run increasingly through renewables like solar which has the sun generating the energy for you. 2. Infrastructure. People complain about lack of BEV infrastructure but it can charge wherever there is an outlet or garage, so the backbone of that infrastructure is already built out. For hydrogen you need to build brand new refueling stations from scratch that don't exist and will cost hundreds of millions. The one benefit hydrogen has is speed in refueling, but even that advantage is dwindling as charging technology advances. Again, it isn't about dominating hydrogen or dominating electric. These guys all sell to the same customers. Tesla did not set out to dominate the Nissan Leaf, otherwise it would have been a massive flop. They are not competing in the electric car market, its just the car market. People don't go out and specifically look for an electric car unless its one of those green washed virtue signaling hippies(admittedly a big part of Tesla's early adopter base). But to become truly mass market you have to just produce a better car, period. Just like Nikola needs to be competitive in the semi market period, regardless of the propulsion method. Its true that Tesla traded on a ton of hype for years, mostly on the promise of the Model 3 taking the company mass market - which has largely come true. But again, just because it worked out for Tesla doesn't mean it will for Nikola. People waited years through production delays and teething issues, quality issues etc for Tesla because Elon had a reputation and Tesla built up a brand. Nikola is not going to get that benefit of the doubt I assure you. Which is why my biggest gripe with it besides the valuation is that - my read on Trevor is that he is not the kind of generational visionary that can come through when the tough times inevitably come.
We are in a flash recession. First of its kind in history. It is man made, all the bad economic data, due to a government mandate to shutdown, not natural economic reasons. So when it comes to recovery you need to throw what you know about economics out the window. Its like an on off switch, when the economy opens back up, recession over. With that said there was real fear that covid would change consumer behavior for a prolonged period or even permanently in some cases. This was why Buffet sold his airlines, there was just no way to tell how consumers would react coming out of the lockdown with any certainty. But now that we are getting on our way to opening up it is increasingly becoming clear - people. don't. care. Call it stupidity if you want or whatever, but there are two sets of people - the conservatives that never cared to begin with, with truthers who don't even think the virus is real, and the liberals who pretend to care just to sabotage the economy to bring down Trump - but then the second there is a chance, encourage hundreds of thousand to march side by side and on top of eachother. You can't put the genie back in the bottle after that. So people are going to be out the second the economy opens, and the economy is going to boom. With that said, the whole reason for the shutdown to begin with was fear that the hospital system would become overwhelmed leading to a spike in fatality rate(which is normally very low). That could still happen which is why we should keep an eye on especially Texas hospitalizations. Because a second shutdown will bring this whole thing crashing down again.
Deleted stuff that's already been pointed out, argued, hashed, and re-hashed before in this thread. Then you're in disagreement with what Milton has stated. He's stated he wants to 1) make hydrogen the winner over electric and 2) wants to dominate the sale of the fuel and the infrastructure to those who use it and 3) sell the tech to other OEMs who want to use it. So he has to get the demand for its use up. If he's not trying to blow smoke up people's butts (which remains to be seen), this is a fundamental difference. Tesla can't sell you the grid -- they don't own it, and outside of any solar component to it, they can't sell you the energy, and they sure as hell don't want to give you their technology. The production of the fuel and the fueling stations are being built/owned by Nikola. Ultimately, not necessarily near-term, that's the goal. He stated in a recent interview that he couldn't care less if other people make and sell more vehicles than he does -- he wants to dominate the fuel and tech portion, and to a possibl lesser-extent, the semis. This is part of the shared IP approach to fast-tracking development and building vehicles. The other vehicles (pickup, boat, ATV, jet-skis, etc) are just toys he's hyping in my opinion. Again, is what he's saying true? Is he lying? Is he a snake-oil salesman? I don't know, but if it is, it's one elaborate ruse. I think he's 75% salesman and 25% whateverelse. But if there's one thing I've learned from working in tech for 25 or so years, it's that even an idiot can make it to the top as long as they can b.s., surround themselves with talent, manage them well, and let them do their thing. There are major corporations with "non-geniuses" at upper level positions that do just fine. lol. All that stuff about what Tesla had to overcome and Nikola will, too, is a bit overblown. Sure, some of it was true, but Tesla was trying to sell expensive electric cars when they were novelty items. The trucking/long-haul industry won't be as difficult a sell these many years later, though competition will be intense. Nikola also doesn't have the "we have to design it, we have to build it, we have to maintain it and then keep everything proprietary" approach. So when you say "Nikola" is building something, keep in mind a lot of that building, maintenance, design is also being done by the likes of Bosch, Ryder, Meritor, Wabco, etc. for them. And those guys know a lot about vehicles/trucking, and, yes, even more than Tesla. Which I understand, and to an extent, it's what I fear, as well, but can't tell you if you're right or not. But then Trevor doesn't seem like an egomaniac, either, and has stated he plans to hand over the reigns to someone else within 4 or 5 years to take the company to the next level. In the meantime he has people like Jeff Ubben of Value Act helping him on the financial side, the aforementioned industry names helping him out on the hardware/tech side, etc. Like I said... 75% salesman. Alright, I'm done defending a stock/company I don't even own. Bring some fresh meat to the table...
I think more volatility up and down is inevitable, but I don't think anyone has any idea on the timing. To add to your list of issues - trade war escalation (if Huawei keeps getting targeted will China retaliate against Apple/Tesla which get both production and sales from China?).
No one knows. Like I've said, coronavirus is the director of this crazy train. "The market" is probably driven 60% by technical/algorithmic/robotic/chimpanzee trading nowadays from recent estimates, so emotion doesn't play much of a role, well, unless you buy HTZ. The other thing is when something tanks because of fear, you either sell because you think it's going down more or you buy because either it's going down more but you think it will come back or you think it's about to come back soon. So when the market tanked, it tanked quickly. The fall was so rapid, many people didn't have time to think. They either just held on for dear life or they sold on the way down. So when the Fed came in and propped up the economy, markets, etc. with liquidity injections, tried to stabilize credit markets, bought ETFs, bonds, etc. there was a belief that they had put a floor in the market - "hey, we're at the bottom". So now people started picking at good companies that had gotten thrown out with bad companies or companies directly affected by COVID. In other areas of the market, courageous people bought hand-over-fist because the market was down around 30%, so why the hell not start buying as they saw it start to climb back up and DCA back into the market? They were betting on the future being better or the future couldn't get any worse. In investing, look forward when the market drops like that. Buy into stuff if the market drops around 10% or more. Generally, 10% is a magical number for trading algos and traders in general in that it signals a market correction. Anything more than that is a major happening. I always take the approach if the market drops more than 10% buy into some good stocks and the SPY or DOW (nowadays, maybe even the Q's) because, short of a planetary catastrophe, it'll always come back. I had no idea it would come back like this, though. I still am surprised we didn't try to re-visit the bottom or at least retrace these gains more than the blip we had a few days ago. If the hospital system continues to fill up with COVID patients, the market could be in trouble. If we get a vaccine, the market may go bonkers, but so much of the market has come back around 50-90% or more, I'm not sure what will come back other than maybe airlines, entertainment, and retail (or similar stocks). My guess is we've seen the bottom or anything close to it unless we get more bad or worse news. The best time to buy was around March 23rd and you could've bought damn-near anything and done well in the immediate aftermath. But, don't quote me on that ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...exaggerated-the-capability-of-his-debut-truck Milton then made several comments to the crowd at the December 2016 event suggesting the Nikola One was driveable. The statements alarmed people familiar with the truck’s capability, who told Bloomberg News recently that it was inoperable and missing key components to power itself. On Wednesday, Milton said key parts were taken out of the vehicle for safety reasons and that it never drove under its own power. “I never deceived anyone,” he said in a phone interview. Nikola shares briefly erased gains and traded down as much as 2.4% as of 3:33 p.m. Thursday in New York. The people familiar with the truck, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information, said they were concerned about the statements. Gears and motors were missing, and while the words “H2 Zero Emission Hydrogen Electric” were emblazoned on the vehicle, there was no fuel cell on board. “There wasn’t a fuel cell in the truck. We never claimed there was,” Milton said. He confirmed the motors and gears weren’t in the vehicle for safety reasons.
Milton letting Ed ludlow and Bloomberg know about what he thinks of them on his Twitter. https://twitter.com/nikolatrevor?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author <a href="">June 17, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Those of you into SPACs, I'm starting to think SPACs are generally popping up together (?), so be careful. I own FMCI I'm starting to think SPACs are generally popping up together (?), so be careful. I own FMCI and MFAC, and both popped on no news I could find. I think some of you mentioned HCCH and GRAF... also stuff like OPES.... all up. No idea why in most cases I've looked other than people are piling in for possible pops (?)
All people did was laugh at you for not knowing USO had futures contracts in it and getting destroyed The price right now translates to what was 3.4 which means you are heavily down and have to wait on that tied up capital when other sectors are up compounds the loss You can make up whatever stories you want, but 1 win and 3 losses isn't worth bragging about the "frauds" at gs have generated far more returns market has had a record pushback because of retail investors putting everything into AAL and CCL, but now reality is setting in a bit no need to act like a thug when your returns are still below average for how hot the market was, you would never do this in real life so save the tough guy act.
