Just because a person is labeled as a can't miss prospect doesn't mean they won't bust. Look at Jamarcus Russell. Aaron Rodgers wasn't a can't miss prospect
Few players come with as low risk as Manning and Luck. At this point, an RG3 or Cam Newton type talent would do wonders for the Texans. Even Matt Ryan would upgrade the team. Heck, they might even make the team relevant for a decade. That special player for this year sounds like Bridgewater. Even if the team ends up with Clowney or Barr, it would be a strong leap forward for the team. Whatever position that guy is at, the Texans can take the one they want; not the one left over. There is no downside to the Texans having their pick of the QB/DL/LB litter. At the very least, this embarrassment of a season should lead to cleaning house and the next regime gets to walk in the door with a top pick. This is short term pain for long term gain. Hopefully, the future coaching and talent will mean the team won't be picking this high again in the future. Might as well maximize the gains from losing this horribly. Moral of the story is: feel free to root for the Texans to lose without any guilt. I know I will.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/ruhFmBrl4GM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Pride won't help this franchise next season. Getting the #1 pick will help the franchise a lot more. Just from having the ability to take whatever player you choose or even the ability to trade it. So yeah, F pride at this point.
I don't necessarily agree with Bridgewater being that player... But I agree with everything else you said... A new regime will go along way.
Fanfare/hype train for class of 2014 QBs vs. class of 2012 seems pretty obviously slanted towards 2012, IMO. Once again, "every round" or not, it doesn't matter nearly as much as who is drafting. Feel free to not care about the Texans draft position, as it has historically been shown to be largely irrelevant to talent acquired. I'm more concerned with who is going to be making the picks, personally. And in the meantime, I'll cheer to beat everybody knowing that the detriment of winning is negligible. (unless for some bats*** insane reason McNair decides to keep Kubiak because of a 4 game winning streak...) Luck/Manning being the exception is the whole point. Those guys came into the league with more fanfare than anybody I can remember. There isn't one of those guys sitting out there right now, so tanking is pretty meh. I'm not suggesting should feel guilty or that rooting for them to lose was detrimental to the team, FYI. I just think that going into each week wanting to lose is a really crappy way to live as an NFL fan. I can take pleasure in having the franchise be the winning-est it can, plus screwing up other teams' playoff hopes, especially rivals is great. But if a higher pick is what you're dying for, more power to you, but the stats has dissuaded me from that POV.
The new draft format (round 1 on Thursday and rounds 2 and 3 on Friday) makes that first pick of Day 2 a little more valuable as teams have a chance to assess their draft boards overnight versus just between rounds.
I agree with you that NFL talent, unlike NBA talent, is hard to pin point and it's not as top heavy as the NBA. That being said, I can not comprehend your complete disregard for gaining a better draft position. Teams pay a lot of picks to move up to near the top of the draft, so there value to be had by having a top pick. A few trades for the top picks recently: 2013: #3 overall traded for #8 overall and a 2nd round pick (#42 overall) 2012: #2 overall traded for #6 overall, 2 extra 1st round picks, 2nd round pick (#39 overall) 2011: #6 overall traded for #26 overall, extra 1st round pick, 2nd round pick (#59 overall), and additional 4th and 5th rounder 2011: #10 overall traded for #16 overall and additional 2nd round pick Moving up could mean being able to get a deal for a team trying to move up and not getting a deal. Most of these trades are for a team to select a QB and with all the QBs available this year, this is a very real possibility. This is why I'm cheering for a higher pick and maximizing value. Here's hoping that our next GM sees the same thing.
Most wouldn't. You honestly think that there won't be a franchise level QB in this draft? Sitting at #1 means getting first crack at said individual.
For everyone saying there isn't a can't miss prospect in this draft they have to be smoking that cheeba. Teddy Bridgewater is that potential franchise QB even more than Can Newton was the year he came out and people were slating him around 8-10 to begin the scouting/combine phases of the season. You guys that don't think #1 pick can help this time are smoking crack. Even if you don't believe in Teddy should know by following Morey that assets are key to rebuilding and what is better than having the 1st overall pick as an asset whether you use it or trade it.
I think based on sheer volume, there probably is one out there. However, volume is not an factor that speaks in favor of tanking.
If someone could guarantee me a trading partner and that our next GM will want to trade back, then sure, sign me up. But I can't worry about that with so much left undecided at this point. I'm going to enjoy cheering for the Texans & against turds like the Titans/Colts (something I wait a *long* time each year to do) and hope that the next regime is either good at scouting talent or biz savvy enough to pull off that killer trade you're talking about.
It really doesn't matter if you root for wins or draft position...the Texans will do what they do, other teams will too, and the football world moves on. Just enjoy this tragic ride and try to find some silver linings (Bridgewater, Clowney, etc).
Have more pride than that... You keep misstating what the historical evidence shows. Even the study you linked to in an earlier post is being misread in that "value" is the author's prime measure and defined in relation to player salary, not to talent. The author's results show that the cost of a bust at the top of the draft is really high, but so is the return of hitting on that top pick. There are no sure things in the draft. This we know. Most NFL draft picks bust, no matter where they are selected. But picking up top gives the team a better swing at the ball. (http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2012-04-22/nfl-draft-2012-first-round-disappointments) But we can look at where top players are picked to get an idea of where the percentages skew. Here is a neat interactive graphic showing top players for various years and where they were drafted: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/04/25/sports/football/picking-the-best-in-the-nfl-draft.html We can even take a look at correlation between draft position and making a pro bowl: http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistical-mentor/how-to-draft-an-nfl-pro-bowl-player (Note the chart on correlating draft order to chances of making a pro bowl at least once.) Injury, scheme fit, and getting drafted by the Raiders, Browns, or Bengals aside, we can see that elite players tend to come from the first round. And though where in the first town varies by position, the top of the round is where the elite QBs and playmakers are found. If we want to play the odds, then the team is better off drafting has high as it can just for the purpose of going for the guy their scouting department most values. I root for the team to lose out because all it takes is for the Texans to win a couple and a couple of other teams to lose out for the team to drop from #1 to #5. Once the Texans have a mathematical lock on the #1 pick, I will root for them to win. If rooting for meaningless wins makes you feel good, go for it. But accurate stats, historical evidence, and variability of draft outcomes has dissuaded me from that view.
I just want the #1 pick so ESPN can't go to commercial every time the Texans are set to announce their selection during the draft.
When salary is a factor, yes. But that isn't what I'm referring to, as salary isn't a factor anymore. It's about the return/talent from drafting at the beginning of a round vs. the middle vs. end of a round. His data shows its negligible. Nothing from that link indicates that the "better swing at the ball" is substantial. My point is that the difference between picking 1st and picking 15th (which, given the Texans situations are best-worst scenarios, seemingly) is negligible. While neat, those graphics would only concern me if the Texans were risking losing their first round pick entirely by winning. The Texans will have a 1st round pick no matter what, and chances are it will wind up in the 1-15 range. The difference of talent that comes from that range of picks is pretty much indiscernible. Luckily the Texans are so bad now that no matter what they do, they'll be picking in the top half of the draft. The playmakers will be there no matter what, the question is, are we smart enough to find them.
