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[APBRMetrics Board] Scary +/- stat regarding our guards

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Nov 28, 2010.

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  1. choujie

    choujie Member

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    There are a lot problems, but becoming the worst defensive team in NBA after 5 games is the biggest one. And AB/Martin pair is the biggest problem for that problem.

    AB didn't finish game 5, but Rockets played good D and almost stole the game after AB went down. That again proved my point.

    Against the young/inexperienced Portland team, Rockets would get 2nd round with Rafer too. In fact, Rafer got to NBA final that year. so that doesn't mean much. It was Yao/Scola killing the blazers.
     
  2. el_locoteee

    el_locoteee Member

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    [​IMG]

    Defense is my specially. Just look how I good I played matador defense vs all this PG Wall, Rose, Nash, Westbrook.
     
  3. BradMiller

    BradMiller Member

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    Awwwyeahhh there ya go Aaron
    [​IMG]
     
  4. thelasik

    thelasik Contributing Member

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    Nothing new. Sigh.
     
  5. choujie

    choujie Member

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    Better believe it. Kobe was voted to all NBA first defensive team while he wasn't even playing D that much 3 years ago.
     
  6. jevon3012

    jevon3012 Member

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    Is this really that hard to understand? You think people voting for DPOY watch all of Howard's and Yao's games and then make an enlightened basketball decision on who has the bigger defensive impact? Nope, they see a highlight on ESPN of Howard pointlessly smacking some ball into the 10th row and then they project in their minds what sort of defense Howard could(should) be playing with that athleticism and height and then that becomes their perception of him.
     
  7. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Then don't believe it. There's noise in the model -- its not meant to be a precise ordering. But clearly on the defense list, the better defenders tend to be ranked higher and the worse defenders tend to be ranked lower. So its capturing something about defensive ability of players that rings true, totally independent of subjective input or misleading boxscore stats. And the same ranking has our starting guards at the bottom of a 5-year list. Literally in the 0th percentile. That's kind of worrying to me.
     
  8. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Yao has been an underrated defensive player -- I've always felt that way. Dwight is a much better defender the last few seasons than he was 4-5 years ago. As this is an adjusted +/-, a player's ranking also has to do with the how well the team utilizes their strengths. When the Rockets were really good on defense, they understood how to take advantage of Yao's defensive strengths and mask his weaknesses.

    That doesn't really answer your question, because I don't have an answer. Yao was arguably more impactful on defense a few years ago, but to me Dwight has become a well-deserved DPOY.
     
  9. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Its important to note that neither have played with a defensive big for extended periods of time.
     
  10. AggieRocketsFan

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  11. el_locoteee

    el_locoteee Member

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    Rafer team wouldn't make it out of the first round on the west or take to 7 the Lakers that year. And it was AB on of if the biggest player that series and we actually flourish.

    Blaming Aaron for the 5 games is fullish. You can blame Scola or Kevin and the lack of good play by the bench as well.

    That SA game was 54-57 game pretty much open and we were +2 with Aaron Brooks while Ish who play really good was -3, and we probably caught SA relaxing a little vs a Rockets with no AB or Yao at the end we lost and you can't assume we wouldn't won with AB. In Fact we won the year before after loosing at the Half vs SA at San Antonio with the AB at the command.

    AB 4 game loosing streak.
    Kyle 4 game loosing streak.

    And I'm positive with AB healthy we probably 500 by now and with both Kyle and AB a few game over 500.
     
  12. choujie

    choujie Member

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    It's even more important to note Rafer is in top 10% playing with the same big men on Rockets for some season, similar big men in Orlando for half season, worse defensive big men in NJ for one season.

    Lowry is in top half, played with the same big men on Rockets, worse defensive big men on Memphis.
     
  13. RudyTBag

    RudyTBag Contributing Member
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    It is very easy to see on the court. We can't win a ring with those two guys defending the 1 and the 2.

    Unless we had Gerald Wallace and Josh Smith...
     
  14. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    LOL Are you serious? Rafer started alongside young Battier, Hayes and healthy Yao for multiple seasons which were some of the best defensive teams in the league.

    Similar big men in Orlando? Are you forgetting Dwight freaking Howard?

    Lowry plays against bench players.
     
  15. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    There's only one way to fix this problem: AB and Martin need to carry nunchucks when they're on the court.
     
  16. Shroopy2

    Shroopy2 Contributing Member

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    You're MUCH too understated on things sometimes :)


    Whats there to protect? This is a nice find and DEPLORABLE stat on the defense.

    We SHOULD hope the Rockets realize this and HAVE sense of urgency to get off their slouch asses and start DEFENDING.

    There are some inconsistencies to the list. There are guys like Maurice Evans and Ryan Gomes who have reputations as glue-guys and defenders but are at the bottom of the ranking.

    But then EVERY stinking player at the TOP 40 of the list have reputations as defenders, all of them have passed the eyeball test with only a couple possible exceptions. So you have to think there's SOME credibility to it.


    Kevin Martin and Brooks are in the top 10% in offense though, so I suppose they compensate.
     
  17. choujie

    choujie Member

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    Rockets with Rafer had Portland's number for years. There is no reason to believe Rockets with Rafer won't make 2nd round. AB didn't "flourish" in portland series, actually he played poorly in some of the games and played decent in game 6 after Yao called out him after game 5. Yao isn't the type of the player to call anybody out, and he did that to AB, you get the picture.

    For SA game, we were talking about defense. AT half time, AB scored like 18 to keep Rockets alive, that only shows he can really score on a good night. SA scored 34 points in 1st quarter alone. Defense with AB/Martin was just poor.

    I'm not blaming everyting on AB. I'm saying AB/Martin backcourt won't work. Each one of them needs to pair with a better defensive player, otherwise the team's defense won't be good enough to win consistently.

    I agree a healthy AB would definitely help the team. I never questioned that. But I believe he can help the team coming off he bench to provide much needed scoring and he can help the team by taking some of the last shots.

    Rockets lost quite many games because they have nobody to score in 2nd unit and they don't have anybody can take the last shot.

    But AB/Marin pair staring is not going to work.
     
  18. choujie

    choujie Member

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    Yao's best defensive year in 08-09 season, AB played with him.

    Again, DH's defensive impact is overrated, see the list.

    Rockets defensive rating went up after Lowry took the starting job.

    So all your points are invalid.
     
  19. mig0s

    mig0s Member

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    2 years ago, we have 5 players on the top 15 defensive according to that list: Chuck, Deke, Yao, Artest and Battier. We should've won the championship. :mad: :mad: :mad:
     
  20. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    We lost Deke and Yao, unfortunately.
     

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