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2013 NFL Draft - McShay Mock Draft

Discussion in 'Football: NFL, College, High School' started by J.R., Dec 12, 2012.

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J.R. Member

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The college season is over and the NFL is entering its stretch run, so it's time for my initial first-round projection for the 2013 draft.

The order below is based on current records and playoff predictions, and assumes each playoff team would advance according to seeding (No. 1 conference seeds to the Super Bowl, etc.). Ties between teams with the same record are broken using strength of schedule, with teams having the lower SOS getting the higher pick.

Much can and will change as the playoff picture comes into sharper focus and more draft-eligible non-seniors make their intentions known, but this early look offers some perspective on where prospects might land given what we know at this point.

Defensive linemen have dominated my draft board all season long, and this projection is no different with 14 ends and tackles included. Offensive tackle is the next-best position with four prospects, while only one quarterback makes the early cut.

Among individual schools, Texas A&M and Georgia lead the way with three prospects, including a pair of Aggies in the top five. Alabama, West Virginia, Notre Dame and North Carolina all have two players in this mock draft.

Draft-eligible non-seniors are noted with an asterisk.

1. Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 2-11

Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

This might turn out to be a simple case of bad luck for the Chiefs. They're a year too late to cash in on the Andrew Luck/Robert Griffin III bonanza, and there doesn't appear to be a 2013 quarterback prospect worthy of the No. 1 overall pick. I would have to think West Virginia's Geno Smith would be the choice over USC's Matt Barkley if the Chiefs go that direction, but at this point I think they go elsewhere. Kansas City already has spent first-round picks on the likes of Tyson Jackson and Dontari Poe, but needs a defensive tackle who can hold ground while also providing more pass-rush ability. Lotulelei will never be an elite pass-rusher, but he is strong against the run and has the quickness and power to collapse the pocket. He could become a mainstay in the middle and be good for five to seven sacks per year.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 2-11

Damontre Moore*, DE, Texas A&M

The Jaguars have a league-low 14 sacks this season. They signed the recently-released Jason Babin as a Band-Aid, but even if Babin returns in 2013, upgrading the pass rush will be a huge priority. Moore can win with quickness or power, shows very good closing burst and is the kind of high-motor, high-character prospect the Jags are known to value. He also flashes the ability to hold the point against the run and has the versatility to line up in multiple spots.

3. Oakland Raiders
Record: 3-10

Bjoern Werner*, DE, Florida State

The Raiders have managed only 17 sacks this season, and DEs Lamarr Houston (300 pounds) and Matt Shaughnessy (285 pounds) are unusually big. They would face a tough call between Werner and LSU DE Barkevious Mingo, who has a better natural skill set as a pass-rusher and would give the Raiders a lighter, faster edge rusher. However, Werner is the more consistent player and has a better all-around game.

4. Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 4-9

Luke Joeckel*, OT, Texas A&M

The Eagles have major concerns along the offensive line, and also have a need at cornerback. The line situation will improve when C Jason Kelce and OTs Jason Peters and Todd Herremans return from injured reserve next season, but you could not fault Philadelphia for taking the best available offensive tackle. Joeckel is a smart, technically sound and tough player in the mold of Joe Thomas, and Joeckel started all 37 games at left tackle in his first three seasons with the Aggies. He could play right tackle opposite Peters and allow Herremans to move inside to guard.

5. Carolina Panthers
Record: 4-9

Johnathan Hankins*, DT, Ohio State

The Panthers are much stronger against the pass than the run, so upgrading at defensive tackle is a priority. Lotulelei would be a great pick if he were available. In this scenario, though, Hankins has the size and quickness to be the right fit as a disrupter in the middle of the defensive front.

6. Tennessee Titans
Record: 4-9

Barkevious Mingo*, DE, LSU

Tennessee ranks 26th in the NFL in pass defense and 20th in sacks with 27. Kamerion Wimbley has five sacks, but he will be 30 next season and the Titans need a younger, better version of Wimbley to start on the right side opposite Derrick Morgan. While Mingo isn't a finished product, he has the quick first step, speed and range to chase down quarterbacks.

7. Detroit Lions
Record: 4-9

Dee Milliner*, CB, Alabama

A pass-rusher like Georgia's Jarvis Jones would be intriguing here, but corner is the Lions' biggest need and Milliner has the potential to be an immediate starter. He's not an elite cover corner but good enough to hold up in man coverage, and he is very good in zone. Milliner is also strong in run support, and simply a good all-around player.

8. Arizona Cardinals
Record: 4-9

Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

There is still a lot of work to do on the top quarterbacks, but the question at this point is how high a team will reach for the top player a the position. It's easy to argue the Cardinals need a quarterback as badly as any team in the NFL right now, and when Smith is on, his mechanics, footwork and confidence make him an effective passer.

9. San Diego Chargers
Record: 5-8

Taylor Lewan*, OT, Michigan

The Chargers must protect QB Philip Rivers better. They hope the healthy return of LT Jared Gaither will fill one spot, but they would still need a right tackle in that scenario and Lewan would fit the bill. He has the length to be effective in pass protection, and he's a tenacious run-blocker who gets under the skin of defenders.

10. Cleveland Browns
Record: 5-8

Chance Warmack*, G, Alabama

This is not the sexiest pick and Browns fans probably would express some frustration initially, but Warmack is a flat-out stud who would instantly improve their offensive line. He is one of the best guards I've ever evaluated, an easy mover in pass protection who shows plenty of smarts and is also a nasty run-blocker. Cleveland RB Trent Richardson (a former teammate of Warmack) and QB Brandon Weeden would surely offer their stamps of approval.

11. Buffalo Bills
Record: 5-8

Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame

The Bills could be in the market for a quarterback depending on how they feel about Ryan Fitzpatrick after this season, but there's no way Barkley has the arm to play in Buffalo in the winter. There is also no wide receiver worth taking this high to fill their need at that position. Te'o would give the team another young defensive leader up the middle with DT Marcell Dareus. He's a three-down linebacker who can handle the point of attack against the run and has shown plenty of ability in underneath coverage.

12. Miami Dolphins
Record: 5-8

Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon

Miami has an inconsistent pass rush and needs another rusher opposite Cameron Wake, who will turn 31 in January. Jordan is long and athletic, has explosive initial power and shows the versatility to play multiple roles along the front seven.

13. New Orleans Saints
Record: 5-8

Jarvis Jones*, OLB, Georgia

The Saints are without a second-round pick as part of their punishment for the bounty scandal, so they must upgrade the pass rush with their first-rounder. Jones has top-notch pass-rush skills and his primary role as a rookie will be to get after the quarterback. He also has good range in coverage, and should be an upgrade as a starter on the strong side.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 6-7

Sam Montgomery*, DE, LSU

There is not a corner after Milliner worth taking here to fill a pressing need. There is talk about Joeckel's teammate Jake Matthews* as a first-rounder, and Matthews could fill the Bucs' need at right tackle. However, Montgomery is a solid all-around prospect who can hold up against the run and is a powerful pass-rusher.

15. New York Jets
Record: 6-7

Jake Matthews*, OT, Texas A&M

Yes, the Jets have a quarterback need, but replacing Mark Sanchez with Barkley would be like trying to kick a Diet Coke habit by substituting Diet Pepsi. New York will almost certainly look to bring in a veteran if it chooses to upgrade at quarterback. The Jets' pass defense is surprisingly good despite the team having only 22 total sacks, but they still need a legitimate edge rusher. However, they're on the wrong end of a run on ends in this scenario. They could reach for a player such as Auburn's Corey Lemonier, but they also need a right tackle and Matthews is on the rise with his toughness in the run game and good hands in pass protection.

16. St. Louis Rams
Record: 6-6-1

Eric Fisher*, OT, Central Michigan

The Rams might consider a receiver such as Tennessee's Justin Hunter or California's Keenan Allen here, but could also get better value with a defensive tackle such as North Carolina's Sylvester Williams. However, St. Louis must protect QB Sam Bradford for the organization to turn the corner, and Fisher has the length, light feet and balance to be effective against edge rushers.

17. Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 7-6

Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia

Ogletree is raw, but he has freakish athleticism and plenty of upside. He comes with some character baggage, but the Bengals have shown a willingness to overlook character concerns and an affinity for SEC prospects. They're getting good play from LB Vontaze Burfict, but can they trust him to remain focused? Ogletree also could add depth if Rey Maualuga has trouble staying on the field, and there are no great fits at Cincinnati's other positions of need (SS, RB, WR, RT).

18. Minnesota Vikings
Record: 7-6

Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina

Williams is the best player available here by a long shot. He has good speed and range, power at the point of attack, quick hands and solid instincts. The Vikings also could go with massive Georgia DT Johnathan Jenkins to play alongside the aging Kevin Williams, but Jenkins was not as consistently dominant this season and doesn't present nearly as much value.

19. Dallas Cowboys
Record: 7-6

Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

Vaccaro has good movement skills, showing balance and the ability to turn his hips and run with receivers. His instincts and ball skills would help solidify the Dallas secondary. Jenkins is also a possibility here, too, with the Cowboys needing to solidify their defensive interior.

20. St. Louis Rams (From 7-6 WAS)
Record: 6-6-1

Keenan Allen *, WR, California

Allen doesn't have elite top-end speed, but he has good size and athleticism and his ball skills improved this season. He has the potential to turn into the downfield playmaker Bradford needs on the outside.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 7-6

Johnathan Jenkins*, DT, Georgia

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is frustrated by his team's inability to get to the quarterback this season, and the team could opt for a pass-rusher such as Lemonier or BYU's Ezekiel Ansah. However, Jenkins is a good fit as the successor to Casey Hampton in the middle of Pittsburgh's 3-4 defense. Jenkins has the size to occupy blockers and stuff the run and occasionally provide interior pressure on the quarterback.

22. Seattle Seahawks
Record: 8-5

Justin Hunter*, WR, Tennessee

Hunter's inconsistent ball skills are a concern and he needs to get stronger and more physical in his routes, but you simply can't coach his combination of size and athleticism. He could provide a go-to option for Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. Seattle also has a need at outside linebacker and would find a good fit in Ogletree if he were available. Finally, Hunter's teammate Cordarrelle Patterson might also be in the mix here should the former juco transfer leave the Vols after one season.

23. Chicago Bears
Record: 8-5

Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

Yes, left offensive tackle is Chicago's biggest need, but with four OTs off the board at this point the Bears cannot afford to reach after missing on the likes of Chris Williams and Gabe Carimi in recent years. Chicago DT Henry Melton has been terrific this season, but teams can never have enough disruptive defensive linemen and Richardson fits the bill with his quickness, speed ability to penetrate and power as a bull-rusher.

24. Indianapolis Colts
Record: 9-4

Ezekiel Ansah*, DE, BYU

The Colts have a lot of needs along the front seven in their new 3-4 scheme. Ansah is raw, but he made huge strides in 2012 and showed impressive versatility for a player with limited experience. He also has a rare combination of size and speed. While Ansah is a project, the potential reward if he reaches his potential could be worth the risk.

25. New York Giants
Record: 8-5

Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State

The Giants have been successful under general manager Jerry Reese going with the best available athlete on the board, but in this case they find one of the top players available at a priority need area. Banks is not elite in man-to-man coverage, but he has good length and is solid in press coverage, shows instincts in zone, supports the run and is a ball hawk with 16 career interceptions.

26. Baltimore Ravens
Record: 9-4

Corey Lemonier*, DE/OLB, Auburn

The Ravens would continue a youth movement on defense with this pick. Lemonier might not come off the board this high, but he's an underrated prospect who played hard all season long on a bad defense. He's versatile and tough, has explosive upfield burst, closes quickly and shows some pop at the point of attack.

27. Green Bay Packers
Record: 9-4

Jonathan Cooper*, G, North Carolina

Guard might not be a top need for the Packers, but Cooper's combination of quickness, balance, power and good feet make him a perfect fit in the Packers' zone-stretch scheme. He is the best blocker in space in the class and a top-15 talent who would bring good value at this point.

28. Denver Broncos
Record: 10-3

Kawann Short, DT, Purdue

Defensive tackle is a top need for the Broncos, and while Short has been inconsistent at times during his career he moves well for a 6-foot-3, 325-pounder and has shown the ability to disrupt offenses from the interior (14.5 tackles for loss and six sacks in 2012).

29. San Francisco 49ers
Record: 9-3-1

Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida

Tennessee G Dallas Thomas would be a perfect fit because of his versatility and agility, but the 49ers might not invest a fourth first-round pick along the line to go with Joe Staley, Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis. However, Floyd's versatility to play inside or kick outside to end makes him a great fit on the other side of the ball. He can anchor against the run, chases plays all over the field and had a monster 2012 season.

30. New England Patriots
Record: 10-3

Tavon Austin*, WR, West Virginia

The Patriots might not want to spend a first-round pick on a slot receiver, but Austin's playmaking skills as a receiver and return man (and even out of the backfield) will make him a tempting option in this area of the draft. The Patriots' other need areas include defensive tackle, perimeter receiver, guard and defensive back.

31. Atlanta Falcons
Record: 11-2

Zach Ertz*, TE, Stanford

Atlanta needs an eventual successor to Tony Gonzalez, and while Ertz isn't the same kind of elite talent he does have plenty to offer. He has good overall hands and is strong in traffic, is a crisp route runner and has been highly productive throughout his career.

32. Houston Texans
Record: 11-2

Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

The Texans are looking for another pass-catcher who can take pressure off WR Andre Johnson and need an upgrade at tight end. Eifert is not an elite athlete, but he has the size to create mismatches and separation and also the best ball skills of any tight end in college football. Houston also could opt for USC WR Robert Woods, or a safety such as Florida's Matt Elam or LSU's Eric Reid.

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#1 J.R., Dec 12, 2012

leroy Contributing Member

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My how the mighty (running backs) have fallen. Not one currently predicted to be a first round pick?

#2 leroy, Dec 12, 2012
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big fan of Demontre Moore, but #2!!??
He's not at Von Miller status yet

#3 ths balla, Dec 12, 2012
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Amazing how few skill position players there are anywhere remotely at the top of this list. One CB, one WR, and one QB (who should not be there) in the top 20, and that's it as far as skill positions go.

#4 Major, Dec 12, 2012
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lol vacarro #17, no barkley first round.

#5 SuperBeeKay, Dec 12, 2012
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The Eagles just had to be horrible the same year the draft is horrible.

#6 Lil Pun, Dec 13, 2012
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Gonna be a great year for defense prospects... I like the Texans picking last though

#7 713, Dec 13, 2012

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God this draft sucks

#8 moestavern19, Dec 13, 2012
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I watch a decent amount of college football (not hardcore though) and I've never heard of the projected #1 pick...Anybody else?

#9 rocketfan83, Dec 13, 2012
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rocketfan83 said: ↑

I watch a decent amount of college football (not hardcore though) and I've never heard of the projected #1 pick...Anybody else?
Click to expand...

I've heard of him only because I'm a mock draft junkie. Thats what happens when your team sucks for decades.

#10 moestavern19, Dec 13, 2012
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I would think WR makes more sense for the Texans than TE. Texans have Daniels and Casey (I know he is technically a fullback now). Seems like they'd be smarter to add one later in the draft for depth.

#11 juicystream, Dec 13, 2012
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juicystream said: ↑

I would think WR makes more sense for the Texans than TE. Texans have Daniels and Casey (I know he is technically a fullback now). Seems like they'd be smarter to add one later in the draft for depth.
Click to expand...

Texans should draft Barkley and groom him.

#12 713, Dec 13, 2012
Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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juicystream said: ↑

I would think WR makes more sense for the Texans than TE. Texans have Daniels and Casey (I know he is technically a fullback now). Seems like they'd be smarter to add one later in the draft for depth.
Click to expand...

I'd rather just avoid WR completely and find one in free agency. They take too long to develop and I don't see us landing an Andre replacement in this draft, might as well stick with this year's rookie WR's.

#13 Ziggy, Dec 13, 2012

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So what Todd is saying is the Texans are winning the Super Bowl???

#14 So Good, Dec 13, 2012
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SuperBeeKay said: ↑

lol vacarro #17, no barkley first round.
Click to expand...

Don't see whats funny. He's the best safety in the draft.

#15 cdain3, Dec 13, 2012
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Ziggy said: ↑

I'd rather just avoid WR completely and find one in free agency. They take too long to develop and I don't see us landing an Andre replacement in this draft, might as well stick with this year's rookie WR's.
Click to expand...

Probably right.

#16 juicystream, Dec 13, 2012
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Mel Kiper Mock Draft 1.0

1. KC - Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M
Analysis: He has started every game at left tackle since he arrived on campus, protects the passer with what could almost be perceived as ease and has zero durability questions after three years against very good competition. Joeckel has been so good, a big question about him at this stage might be whether he's truly nasty enough, a point of pride among elite O-linemen. The kid is a gifted technician at left tackle, and the Chiefs could go with the strategy of drafting their left tackle for the next 10 years here, then taking a shot on the best QB available with the first pick in Round 2. Two needs, two picks. We'll see, but QB value at this draft slot isn't in play right now.

2. JAX - Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M
Analysis: The Jaguars sacked opposing QBs on a league-low 3.6 percent of drop backs this season. I hear people question where Jacksonville will go at the QB position, but if they really want to make a change at QB in 2013 (and that's absolutely no guarantee), free agency is a better option than this spot in the draft. Meanwhile, I've had a pass-rusher as a top need for this franchise going on four years. Moore is an exceptionally productive defensive end prospect with very good quickness, long arms and elite closing burst as a rusher. The Jags should be a better team in 2013, but it's not just based on whether they get better at quarterback.

3. OAK - Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah
Analysis: Oakland needs immediate impact from this draft after a season in which they had to shed talent and suffered after the new front office inherited a disastrous salary-cap situation. In Lotulelei, you have a player who can do anything on the defensive line, and all of it well. He can utilize great burst to beat interior blockers and destroy plays, and when a target of double- or even triple-teams, he holds his own and makes everybody else's job easier. Given the positional value and consistency, a very high floor.

4. PHI - Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
Analysis: People need to forget the idea that Philly is deep at corner. You watch the tape and it simply wasn't true in 2012. I expect changes in a secondary where it's possible that on a per-play basis, the best corner for Philly this season was rookie Brandon Boykin. The top cornerback in the draft is always going to be a huge draw, and Milliner could come out of the draft process worthy of going this high. He will improve as a technical corner, but has elite grades in terms of awareness, and particularly as a physical corner who can push wideouts off routes. He can defend the run and tackle at a very high level.

5. DET - Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
Analysis: He may not be a perfect fit in a 4-3 on the edge, but Jones is an exceptional pass-rusher, can line up on either side of Detroit's young and talented interior linemen and will flat-out make plays. He led the nation in sacks even as every team brought help to block him, and Jones not only uses great leverage to hold up as a run defender, but is vastly underrated in his ability to drop and cover. He brings a workmanlike effort and will sack quarterbacks, and skip the dance as he helps them up. A mature player and a good fit on any team, and within any system.

6. CLE - Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
Analysis: I've heard Werner compared to J.J. Watt, and while he's better suited to play defensive end in a 4-3 alignment because he doesn't yet have the size to work primarily inside at this point, in terms of raw impact against the pass, the comparisons hold up. Not only does Werner provide immediate impact as a pass-rusher, like Watt, he defends the pass with his eyes and gets his hands up, disrupts passing lanes and swats away throws. A late arrival to football, he has a high ceiling. He's an ideal fit in Cleveland, a team that saw the defense regress in 2012.

7. ARI - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
Analysis: We haven't seen a true guard land in the top 10 since 1997, but roll the tape on Warmack and it's hard to see how he doesn't end the streak. As a run-blocker, this guy improves what you can do in that area the second he steps on the field. In a word, he's dominant. Arizona's pass protection was a disaster early in the season, but very quietly they may have found answers at tackle in Bobby Massie and Nate Potter, who both played much better late in the year. Add Warmack, and you have a young offensive line that could make huge strides in 2013. Obviously, Arizona could be in the market for a QB here, but free agency (or a trade) could fill that void before April.

8. BUF - Manti Te'o, ILB, Notre Dame
Analysis: The Bills really need help at interior linebacker, where Kelvin Sheppard is a good player, but won't become a great one. Te'o doesn't have elite athleticism, but he has elite instincts, elite intangibles and will become the leader of a defense by the end of training camp. He makes the Buffalo run defense better immediately, and very quietly was second in the nation in INTs, showing great awareness in his drops (and good hands) against the pass. He may not end up this high, but I'm sold on him as a high-level NFL middle linebacker.

9. NYJ - Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
Analysis: Skill position questions are significant for the Jets, who need help at wide receiver, tight end and probably at running back. But the value might not be there at this spot, and for several years the Jets also have lacked a pass-rusher who scares opposing offenses. Mingo could be that player on the edge in Rex Ryan's scheme, strengthening a defensive line that is going to be very good on the interior as Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples develop into a couple of the best 3-4 defensive ends in the league. Mingo must add polish and play with better leverage, but his ceiling is extremely high and Ryan could do a lot with him.

10. TEN - Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon
Analysis: He's a little light for a 4-3 defensive end, but Jordan has a long frame and can add some weight. The Titans saw an improved pass rush in 2012, but Jordan could take that unit to another level as he develops. This is a very good athlete, a player who probably could have developed into a draft-worthy tight end, but Oregon made the right call in putting him on defense. There is development left in his game, but his quick first step, long arms and overall athleticism are all high level and he could become a very good NFL pass-rusher.

11. SD - Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
Analysis: The play of Philip Rivers over the past two seasons has raised a lot of questions about whether he really can be one of the best QBs in the league, but part of that is because he's simply not a QB who can thrive if he doesn't get adequate protection, and the San Diego offensive line simply hasn't done the job. Fisher is a tall player, but one that displays very good balance and isn't easily rattled by quickness or pass-rushers who can counter. He reminds you a little bit of Nate Solder, a left tackle who uses athleticism to handle the rush, and can drive effectively as a run-blocker.

12. MIA - Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
Analysis: The Dolphins nailed their quarterback pick in taking Ryan Tannehill in 2012, but when they dealt Brandon Marshall to the Bears, they also left Tannehill without a wide receiver who opposing defenses truly fear as a matchup problem. Patterson had just one year against top competition after spending two years at the junior college level, but he has very good hands, can beat cornerbacks with his height and strength, and will go up and beat defenders for 50-50 balls. He also has big-time ability to run after the catch, and this slot matches up with his current value.

13. TB - Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia
Analysis: He missed the first four games of 2012, but once Ogletree stepped onto the field for the Bulldogs, the defense was immediately better. If you saw Georgia and Alabama in the SEC championship game, perhaps no player made a bigger statement than Ogletree, who looked like the best player on the field that day (which says plenty). He covers the field from sideline to sideline, and I think could play anywhere at linebacker effectively. Line him up behind an emerging defensive line and next to Lavonte David and Mason Foster at linebacker, and this is an extremely formidable front seven for Greg Schiano.

14. CAR - Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
Analysis: The Panthers hit a home run with their first pick in 2012 when they landed Luke Kuechly, and Richardson brings a little bit of what Kuechly does at linebacker, but on the defensive line. Richardson made an unusually high number of tackles from the defensive tackle position because he has a quick burst off the snap, shows great strength in short-yardage situations and knows how to use his hands to get off blocks and make plays. The guy can even drop into coverage and will destroy screen plays. Carolina may need help at wide receiver, but the Panthers really need to strengthen the D-line as well.

15. NO - Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
Analysis: The Saints had a disappointing season, but the problem was mainly on defense. No team was easier to run against consistently than New Orleans, and they need a clogger up the middle, a player who can free up linebackers to make plays. Hankins ran a little hot and cold, and the tape doesn't show a player who will penetrate and use quickness to beat interior blockers, but he can eat up double-teams, move down the line well and make the players around him better. The Saints need help in several spots on defense, but they really need a player who can help deliver more third-and-long situations, and Hankins could be that guy.

16. STL - Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
Analysis: The Rams have used the draft and free agency to strengthen the defense almost everywhere over the past couple of years. They made big strides at corner last offseason with the additions of Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins, and the pass rush is in place with the emerging Robert Quinn and steady Chris Long. Getting the best safety in the draft, a player who can both cover and step up against the run, will be one of those finishing touches.

17. PIT - Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU
Analysis: If you could hand an exceptional physical talent with an extraordinarily high ceiling but plenty of development required to one defensive coordinator, whom would you choose ahead of Dick LeBeau? Ansah is a big-time athletic talent, a guy who at 270-plus pounds has the burst and top-end speed of a track star. He'll get comparisons to a player such as Jason Pierre-Paul between now and April, because his potential to be a star is there, but he needs coaching. The Steelers must get younger on defense, and Ansah makes sense given their track record of development.

18. DAL - Jonathan Cooper, G, North Carolina
Analysis: The Cowboys had an uneven season on the offensive line, and Cooper will provide an upgrade immediately. This is a complete guard, a player who is exceptional at delivering blocks and moving in tight quarters, and he moves extremely well for the position. He can deliver an initial blow to eliminate an interior defender and then move easily to the second level where he can line up linebackers and safeties and block in space.

19. NYG - Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU
Analysis: It was just a year ago at this time when we considered the pass rush a major strength of the Giants, with an emerging Pierre-Paul and veterans Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. But while JPP is now among the best 4-3 defensive ends in the league, the latter two will both be north of 30 by the time the draft arrives -- Umenyiora may not be around next season, and it could be the final year for Tuck in New York. If the Giants want to keep the defensive line a strength, a proven, high-motor defender with pass-rushing skills such as Montgomery would make a lot of sense.

20. CHI - Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame
Analysis: When the Bears traded Greg Olsen to the Panthers, they dealt away one of Jay Cutler's favorite targets. Brandon Marshall made a huge impact in 2012, but the Bears lack that second option Cutler can really depend on, particularly at tight end. Eifert is a new-breed tight end, a guy you can split out as an impossible physical matchup for most corners, and is a hands-catcher who doesn't have to create much separation to be open because he can win physical battles and use his strong hands to take the ball out of the air with players hanging on him. He's an ideal target for Cutler.

21. CIN - Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin
Analysis: In terms of pure draft value, Ball might be a bit of a reach on my board at this spot, but in terms of fit, it's hard to find a better one among teams drafting in this range. Once fully healthy, Ball showed off a quick burst into and through the hole, and the ability to do major damage on the second level, both making defenders miss and simply running through tackles. If Cincinnati is healthy at guard to start the season (the Bengals weren't in 2012), Ball is a player who could take some pressure off Andy Dalton in 2013 by improving its ground game. A "nose for the end zone" is a bit of a throw-away phrase, but Ball truly has it.

22. STL - D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
Analysis: You can't be below average at tackle in the NFC West, dealing with San Francisco, Arizona and Seattle six times a season, and while the Rams stabilized a little bit in 2012 with Barry Richardson and Rodger Saffold bookending the offensive line, they should use one of their first-round picks to look for an upgrade. Fluker profiles as a right tackle, but he should be a very good one at the NFL level. He can simply overwhelm with size and power as a run-blocker, and could be very good if his ability to deal with speed rushers improves.

23. MIN - Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor
Analysis: Last year, we saw both Josh Gordon and Kendall Wright taken out of Baylor, and Williams has the skill set to join them as a player drafted with the potential to make an early impact. Williams is first a player who can use his size and speed to stretch the field and take the top off a defense, but he also can make big plays on the sidelines, where he'll tiptoe and make the catches as well as any pass-catching target in the draft. Williams also will beat you with the ball in his hands as a nifty runner with good size. Minnesota needs a dependable pass-catcher next to Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph.

24. IND - Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State
Analysis: Who? Well, suffice to say, after just one year at Florida State, scouts know all about Watson, and people in NFL front offices are starting to catch up. This is a kid who has played basketball at the D-I level, can really use his hands to swat away rushers given a track record as an emerging boxing talent, and will go to the combine and run in the 4.8 range at around 320 pounds. The Colts have their QB, but while some might assume it's time to address defense, Andrew Luck was hit more than any QB in the NFL this season, and Indy must protect the future of the franchise. Watson's ceiling is deserving of this draft range.

25. SEA - John Jenkins, NT, Georgia
Analysis: John Schneider and Pete Carroll showed great instincts in the 2012 draft, adding players they felt could help them immediately, even as analysts (myself included) questioned slot value. The defense was very good this past season, but I think an interior defender who can occupy blockers, occasionally penetrate and even wreck the pocket from the inside is a need. Jenkins was a little uneven at times in 2012, but has the upside of an impact interior lineman.

26. GB - Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
Analysis: The Packers have had a tight end in Jermichael Finley who can cause matchup problems in the secondary, but with his long-term future in Green Bay in doubt, they might be ready to target another high-level pass-catching tight end in Ertz. In Stanford's system Ertz has shown an ability to make tough catches all over the field, both down the seam and on the edges, and would be an ideal target for Aaron Rodgers to utilize, further diversifying an offense that can be unstoppable.

27. HOU - Keenan Allen, WR, Cal
Analysis: If he hadn't become a wide receiver, it's entirely possible that Allen could be a coveted safety in this draft. His experience on defense shows up on offense, where he has a great knack for finding space in coverage, working back to the ball to help his quarterback and using great hands as a dependable pass-catcher. He's dangerous with the ball in his hands. Allen has dealt with nagging injuries during his time at Cal, but is the kind of wideout who can come in and make his mark early, and Houston needs to find another weapon for Matt Schaub, with Andre Johnson on the backside of his career.

28. DEN - Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
Analysis: We've been talking about how old Champ Bailey is for about three years as the draft approaches, and each year Bailey comes back and plays corner at a high level. But the Broncos have to take a look at the depth chart at corner and realize it's time to bring in a young one capable of starting immediately. Rhodes is a good one, a player who uses his strength to jam at the line and disrupt timing, and he can close hard when the play is in front of him, tackling well and taking smart risks in coming off his route to make plays.

29. BAL - Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU
Analysis: LSU saw a flood of defenders enter the draft, but Minter is the one who should be taken first. With Ray Lewis on his way to the broadcast booth when the season ends, the Ravens need a strong presence in the middle of that linebacking corps. He's not Lewis, but Minter similarly does a great job of anticipating where the play is going and making offensive linemen whiff as he beats them to the ball. A natural fit in the Baltimore scheme, he's a player ready to start.

30. SF - Sharrif Floyd, DL, Florida
Analysis: At some point, San Francisco has to assume that the ageless Justin Smith might finally need a breather, and Floyd is the type of versatile defensive lineman who profiles well as a 3-4 defensive end. Florida moved Floyd to the inside during his sophomore season, but he was back at defensive end this season, and just kept getting better. Like Smith, he's a powerful player who can push the pocket with power and will free up other pass-rushers, while making tackles for loss on his own.

31. NE - DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
Analysis: Overshadowed to start the year by fellow Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins, it was Hopkins who often stole the spotlight. Hopkins is a great natural catcher of the football, and can both set up his defender to create space and simply beat cornerbacks for the ball when he's well covered. I'm not sure if Hopkins is going to blow people away with his straight-line speed at the combine, but he has a knack for the big play and could be a reliable target for Tom Brady. The Patriots aren't slipping on offense, but wide receiver will be a big priority for them this offseason.

32. ATL - Margus Hunt, DE, SMU
Analysis: If you're looking for a player to marvel at when it comes to the Under Armour portion of the draft process, keep an eye out for Hunt's workouts. I'm certainly not the first analyst to point out his remarkable athletic skills, but the former decathlete has extreme power, speed and leaping ability, all in a massive frame. The Falcons need help at defensive end, with the pass rush and age at that position major question marks headed into the offseason, and Hunt's physical prowess and upside will be really tempting in this range.
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#17 J.R., Jan 16, 2013
Last edited: Jan 16, 2013
Fyreball Contributing Member

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J.R. said: ↑

Mel Kiper Mock Draft 1.0

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I would be hard pressed to pass up both Kevin Minter AND Margus Hunt if they are available to us in the first round. I really, really want the Texans to spend the early part of the draft focusing on making that defense more formidable. We can pick up a receiver in the second or third round, and I'd be good with that.

#18 Fyreball, Jan 16, 2013

Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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I think Kiper does his mocks based on how he would draft for each team, not the likely scenario. There's no QB projected in the 1st round.

#19 Ziggy, Jan 16, 2013
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I think Lotulelei is a good building block pick for Oakland, but I'd rather have Jarvis Jones. He's got Von Miller potential.

#20 moestavern19, Jan 16, 2013

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