It's always been my contention that this thing was worth a top ten pick in a deal. The injuries have already started and NO couldn't hold up in conference anyway. With more injuries this could end up as high as 5 -7. Of course, it will be gone long before then.
Utah, Lakers and Puppies are pretty much guaranteed to be worse in conference, Philly has the league worst record locked in and i don't see how Detroit or Boston turn it around. That pushes it to at best 7th, with Orlando and NY likely to be worse, so i'll go 7-12 with more emphasis on 9-10.
We get these threads all the time from Jopat/BBH asking for a mass opinion on player or pick value in a trade and I'll give the same answer as I always have: It's dependent on the buyers needs. No two teams will place the same market value on an asset. You know which two teams probably have the highest value on the pick?.. The Rockets and the Pelicans. Most GM's probably view the pick as being a late lottery pick at best honestly. I Don't think any of them are going to move a good player JUST because they crave that pick. However if they HAVE TO trade a player, it's one of the better picks they are going to get offered. I also don't think its a guarantee that the Rockets for sure trade it. As I mentioned before, the Rockets value that pick higher than anyone else and then you add in the fact that there are very few GOOD players that MUST be moved. Finding a match for that player that lives up to the value Morey has on it, and you have yourself a situation where the Rockets might very well value the player they are potentially drafting at a higher level that moving the pick for the sake of moving it. So what's the value??? Tell me the buyer first, and I'll give you a better answer. Player transactions just aren't that simplistic. Focus on satisfying the needs of the buyer and you got yourself a deal. Every buyer has different needs.
Yeah I mean i just really don't know who our buyers are in the first place and then after that we have to consider their individual needs to even render an offer that will get you a call back. I do of course think the market value goes up with the Pelles struggles of course. That's not what I'm concerned about. The concern is two fold. Finding a match in value w a player coming back, and giving them value back that THEY need or want moving forward. It's going to be tougher to make a deal with that pick than folks realize, and I know at the end of the day nobody wants to move the pick just to move it when they could end up getting a true stud next year instead of a crappy player that doesnt get this team closer to contention. Sorry to be a buzzkill and preach patience. I know the P word around here drives folks mad.
I realize it has huge value for NO...but Gogi/Andersen.....I don't think its a foregone conclusion that Gogi's expiring and Andersen is enough. This a situation where that pick might very well be one of the centerpieces in a deal for a MAJOR star.
Honestly, it doesn't need to be valued higher than late lottery to be worth something in a trade, particularly as teams reassess as the trade deadline approaches. A late lottery pick is better than the one we could offer, which will likely be one of the last 8-10 in each round. That gives an asset in a trade which may sweeten the pot enough to get a good player. Added to whatever we pick up with the trade exception, that could be two significant pieces added to our squad in enough time to gear up for the playoffs.
DM will get rid of the pick this season if he truly wants to win now. Winning right now,14'-15' and starting 15'16', means getting a experienced player (not necessarily a vet) with experience, obvious 4/5 star potential, and team player (no jr smiths). Dragic, Monroe (backup C and pf if jones is injured), Millsap, rondo, Al Jefferson, reggie jackson. Any of these players could take us to the title with harden now a top 3 player and dwight (healthy).
The rockets "bag of assets" is starting to look pretty good, both from a quality and quantity perspective. I suspect the values of DMo, Canaan, Papanikolaou, Capela, and the NOP 1st have all gone up over the last month. As dobro pointed out, it's all in the eye of the beholder. Any of the following could happen that would free up a star in a trade: NYK continues to tank. Phil decides to build from the ground up, and sells Melo to the highest bidder. Lebron decides that one of Love/Irving have to go. Atlanta decides it can't keep Millsap, or that Horford/Millsap won't work as a championship front court. Wade suffers a season ending injury, and Bosh gets antsy in Miami. Miami decides to rebuild. Dragic isn't getting sufficient minutes, and tells Phoenix he's leaving. Portland has a string of injuries, and LMA tells them he's going to explore free agency. Each one of these scenarios is individually unlikely, but you've got to be ready in case "it" happens. As others have speculated, my favorite move is for BOTH Millsap and Dragic at the trade deadline. That gives our young guys more time to prove themselves, plus Millsap and Dragic would likely be at their lowest values.
Good question. I would think the teams that would value the pick the most are teams going to the lottery already.
Agree on any player in the NBA(at least players available for trade). But disagree on picks. Picks are like money. They are liquid. If a team wants something besides a pick, they can always use that pick to grab a player, similar to how the Rockets gave Pelicans Asik for a pick, or Cleveland used a pick to get Thad Young to complete the Kevin Love deal. Picks have pretty stable value because it can be so easily exchanged among teams. A draft pick, especially one that is almost certain to be in the top-14 of the draft, carries plenty of weight. It may be a little tricky to use it at 100% value, like with the Toronto pick and the Harden trade, but such value clearly exist.
