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[ClutchFans] With Lin and Asik still in Houston, Parsons may find his payday delayed
Tags:  2015, basketball, clutchfans, free, free agent, houston, houston rockets, nba, omer asik, trade Tags
The Cat is offline Old 02-28-2014, 02:22 PM   #1
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With the trade deadline behind us, it's starting to look like Parsons' long-term contract will come as an unrestricted free agent in 2015, rather than as a restricted free agent this summer. Here's why:

http://rockets.clutchfans.net/lin-as...ayday-delayed/

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Pull_Up_3 is online now Old 02-28-2014, 02:23 PM   #2
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maybe morey gets rid of Lin this summer?
 
MaxRider is offline Old 02-28-2014, 02:32 PM   #3
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we know Morey will pick up Parsons 4th year option and make him unrestricted in 2015
it doesn't make sense to make him restricted in 2014
1) if one team offer him the max then we are screw, you either overpay him or he's gone (remember Carlos Boozer case?)
2) this way we still have him for one more year (and cheap)
3) all big contract expired on 2015, Morey can use it to target a star (Love or Aldridge)
another reason why i don't think Morey will sign any player with MLE this off-season (if he can't trade for one this off-season)
 
ArtV is offline Old 02-28-2014, 02:48 PM   #4
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While it would be nice to let him be a UFA and just make Les pony up, I think they will go cheap and let Chandler become a RFA to keep his pay in check. Teams won't be throwing him much knowing that he's just going to get matched...even if they include a poison pill. Just wastes their time.
 
haoafu is offline Old 02-28-2014, 02:56 PM   #5
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Remember Utah letting AJ and Millsap leave for nothing is actually a better decision in hindsight. They used the cap space to get a few first round picks, and Sixers can't get any first round pick with all their capspace before the deadline.

IMO any player not at allstar level would be likely overpaid in free agency, and it's better to let them leave for nothing - because in NBA nothing(capspace) is something(DWH recently, and Love/Aldridge likely in the future).
 
Play07 is offline Old 02-28-2014, 02:57 PM   #6
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Asik is SOLID, best defender and rebounder in the NBA at the center spot. Really wish that guy could stay a rocket for longer.
 
Haymitch is offline Old 02-28-2014, 02:58 PM   #7
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Agreed! Having him become a UFA makes sense for the reasons you stated. Good read.
 
Deuce is offline Old 02-28-2014, 02:58 PM   #8
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Well reasoned article.

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“I think with this [acquisition of Dwight Howard], we move into one of the top teams in the West,” Morey said.
"Teams mistake at times like this when they make rash moves, rather than well thought-out moves.
My concern is our playoff team coming in has chance to beat every other team in the playoffs; it’s not on having the best team in the league July 6, 2013.”
 
Madano is offline Old 02-28-2014, 02:59 PM   #9
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The only way I see the rockets making Parson's restricted this summer is if they can pull off a trade for a third star prior to making him restricted. Otherwise, they will just have to risk letting him walk through unrestricted free agency while they go after Love/Aldridge.
 
TechieOne is offline Old 02-28-2014, 03:00 PM   #10
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"For Parsons, whatever value he loses by playing one more “cheap year” could be recouped (and perhaps even more so) by the higher market price he could command as an unrestricted free agent in July 2015. He’s also proven quite durable throughout his young career, so injury risk isn’t significant."

There's no guarantees Parsons does not get hurt in that option year and have that impact what he can get on the market. Things happen. Especially considering he's only being paid 900k per season at the moment. His best option would be in restricted free agency this year but that would depend on the Rockets. IMO, I wouldn't be surprised if that played some part in recruiting for Dwight.
 
jjc1 is offline Old 02-28-2014, 03:11 PM   #11
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Good article. Here is my question - lets say we make Parsons a UFA in the summer of 2015. If we sign a third max player that summer, what is the max we can offer Parsons? Are we limited to the MLE or LLE?
 
HighlightReel is offline Old 02-28-2014, 03:11 PM   #12
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Thanks for the writing. It's a pretty logical & well written piece.

A couple of comments.

First, it makes sense for Morey to not to dump Asik and Lin during the past deadline, because they do offer on court value that's greater than just trading them for nothing during the season. Morey chose to keep them because he couldn't trade for a star, so it's likely that he's already maximize the chance of the team winning this year. I guess we need to realize that trading for a star is never easy. Just remember how long it took for the Rockets to get Harden since the rebuilt?

Second, you made a good point that Morey would revisit the trade of Lin and Asik after the season. If a star is committed to come to Houston, I'm guessing that trading Asik and Lin for virtually nothing or even sending the other team a 2nd round draft pick is actually quite possible because (1)both of them have youth and talent despite what many clutchfans think and (2)one year rental is really not that much of a risk compared to long term contracts despite the ballooned contract. Then, it's really a matter of whether Morey can get the star player to come, NOT a matter of being stuck with Lin and Asik's contracts after this season. Wouldn't then to attribute the blame of not having a third star & Parsons's delayed contract because "Lin and Asik still in Houston" be a little bit off?
 
Fighton is offline Old 02-28-2014, 03:13 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtV View Post
While it would be nice to let him be a UFA and just make Les pony up, I think they will go cheap and let Chandler become a RFA to keep his pay in check. Teams won't be throwing him much knowing that he's just going to get matchedi...even if they include a poison pill. Just wastes their time.
don't think anyone can offer him poison pill - think that's only available to 2nd yr players like asik and lin but i could be wrong.

RFA won't guarantee that you get him on the cheap. in fact, the way RFA works, you almost always have to overbid his market value in order to keep him, whereas in UFA, if he wants to stay in houston, he can stay even if houston doesn't offer him the most amount of money. Also, in 2015, with the amount of FA's out there, there's a bit more leverage for houston. as RFA, your choices are to match, or let him walk and get nothing back.

think there was an article written a few weeks ago that argued for houston to let him be a UFA in 2015 which made a lot of sense. you get him on the cheap for another year, you have a bit more leverage come 2015. also, not needing the cap money in 2014 also allows you to negotiate more favorable deals for asik and lin if you really want to trade them.
 
shastarocket is offline Old 02-28-2014, 03:20 PM   #14
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Zach Lowe has sources? The dude works under Simmons who doesn't know sh**

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The Cat is offline Old 02-28-2014, 03:25 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HighlightReel View Post
Second, you made a good point that Morey would revisit the trade of Lin and Asik after the season. If a star is committed to come to Houston, I'm guessing that trading Asik and Lin for virtually nothing or even sending the other team a 2nd round draft pick is actually quite possible because (1)both of them have youth and talent despite what many clutchfans think and (2)one year rental is really not that much of a risk compared to long term contracts despite the ballooned contract. Then, it's really a matter of whether Morey can get the star player to come, NOT a matter of being stuck with Lin and Asik's contracts after this season. Wouldn't then to attribute the blame of not having a third star & Parsons's delayed contract because "Lin and Asik still in Houston" be a little bit off?
The problem I see with this is the timing.

I do think that Asik and especially Lin are undervalued by many here, but it's going to be very difficult to move them (even for nothing) in late June/early July. The reason is that if a team has room for them, they probably also have room for the other top free agents, and I doubt they'd commit a big chunk of cap space to Asik and/or Lin without waiting to see what happens with the bigger fish first. And if they wait until after the big fish decide, then there's not much point to the Rockets doing it.

I suppose it's possible that if other teams find out they're out of the bidding for the big fish in early July, that they could then turn around and call Morey and make a deal for Asik or Lin. After all, I didn't think Golden State could shed the salaries they did in July 2013 to get Igoudala. But I'd still say it's unlikely until we hear otherwise. There's also the factor that GMs around the league would undoubtedly beg whoever the mystery teams are to avoid creating a "super team" in Houston.

Your first point was pretty much spot on... Morey decided it wasn't worth dealing Asik/Lin during the season for "cap space" because it'd be a pretty big hit to the team's chances this year. But the flip side, and Daryl probably knows it, is that it would be hard to re-open that window as early as he needs to this summer in order to become a major FA player.

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TreP3 is offline Old 02-28-2014, 03:26 PM   #16
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Good article. I agree with the reasoning -- why should Morey cause himself to miss out on landing the third big piece he desires to lock up Parsons, whom he might still be able to sign later anyway?
 
Spacemoth is offline Old 02-28-2014, 03:26 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shastarocket View Post
Zach Lowe has sources? The dude works under Simmons who doesn't know sh**
Yes, he has sources now. He's getting to be one of the more respected writers around the league.

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roslolian is offline Old 02-28-2014, 03:30 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxRider View Post
we know Morey will pick up Parsons 4th year option and make him unrestricted in 2015
it doesn't make sense to make him restricted in 2014
1) if one team offer him the max then we are screw, you either overpay him or he's gone (remember Carlos Boozer case?)
2) this way we still have him for one more year (and cheap)
3) all big contract expired on 2015, Morey can use it to target a star (Love or Aldridge)
another reason why i don't think Morey will sign any player with MLE this off-season (if he can't trade for one this off-season)
1) Teams won't offer the max to Parsons, c'mon now. And even if they did, what do you lost out on? 1 year of a dude at rookie salary? That's not exactly a deal breaker, with both HnH still in their prime and below 30 years old I'd think the Rox have their sights on a dynasty, not 1 year of contention.

2) See above. OTH, if we resign him we can have Parsons for 5+ years.

3) Parsons can be our 3rd star....in this case we have to pay him his full market value, instead of having a 12M player playing for us at 8-10M.

IMHO it's better to make Parsons a RFA and lock him up quickly. Unless we have LBJ or KD, I don't think a 3 star model works because the 3rd dude turns into a glorified role player, think of Chris Bosh in Mia or Ray allen in Boston. Getting a 3rd star puts pressure on DH/JH because you lose out on the quality or depth of the rotation, we say bye to Bev (once rook deal expires), Tjones (ditto), DMo and are just left with vets on minimum deals. I think it's better to spread the wealth, lock our rooks up on cap friendly deals and go forward.
 
pmac is offline Old 02-28-2014, 03:30 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Cat View Post
Route 1 is 2014 free agency. The Rockets aren’t currently projected to have cap space this summer, when free agents could include LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh. But it doesn’t mean Morey won’t try. If Asik and Lin were traded to a team with cap space in June or July of this year, the Rockets could come close to affording a top 2014 free agent while simultaneously pushing Parsons into restricted free agency and locking him up long-term at a cheaper rate.

That said, this plan seems improbable for two reasons. First and foremost is the “balloon payment” issue. Despite the fact that Lin and Asik would each take up just $8.3 million/year in cap space, they are due $15 million/year in 2014-15 in real dollars, all owing to the contract structure Morey used to pry them away from the Knicks and Bulls as restricted free agents in 2012. Reports earlier this season said the high 2014-15 price tags were a stumbling block for rival owners in potential deals, even when offset by smaller current salaries ($5.2 million). As such, it would seem even less likely to find homes for Lin and Asik when they lack a “cheap year” to offset the balloon payment year.

It’s worth noting that the circumstances wouldn’t be identical to Morey’s trade proposals during the season, in which the Rockets likely asked for at least some rotation value in return. After all, the team as currently constructed is a legitimate championship contender, and losing Asik and Lin for nothing but future cap space would’ve been a crippling short-term blow. Morey would seem more likely to make a “cap space” deal in the summer, when he could more immediately reap the benefits.

The problem, however, is that the timing of such a scenario wouldn’t make sense for the other team. If a team theoretically has the cap space for Asik or Lin, they would also likely have room to go after the LeBron/Carmelo/Bosh tier. So why would they use their cap space on Asik and/or Lin before even trying for the bigger fish? And if they wait until after, the value of a “cap space” deal would go down for the Rockets, since the big free agents would already be off the board.
I've mentioned this plan before but I think it is much more probable than anyone here believes. Hinkie traded his best players for 2nd round picks. I wouldn't be surprised to see him take back either Lin or Asik (maybe even both) for 1st round picks for 1 year. There are always teams that have no shot at getting a max free agent but would love to get assets essentially for nothing.

At the end of the day, I think Morey talks to all the big name free agents to see if they would be interested with the assumption that he can trade rotation players with picks to free up cap space.

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Spacemoth is offline Old 02-28-2014, 03:35 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjc1 View Post
Good article. Here is my question - lets say we make Parsons a UFA in the summer of 2015. If we sign a third max player that summer, what is the max we can offer Parsons? Are we limited to the MLE or LLE?
This really should be answered by one of the Clutchfans capologists, but my understanding is that, once the salaries of Lin and Asik come off the books, we will have that much space under the cap to sign someone outright. The problem is that right now we are over the cap but just under the tax, meaning we won't have much to offer to a free agent unless we can do it via sign and trade. (Is there still such a thing now? I forget but there seemed to be a loophole that still allowed SnT.)

Whatever we pay Chandler Parsons shouldn't figure into it, because we can retain his Bird rights the entire offseason on account of his original salary figure being so low. Meaning, if we wanted to give Parsons the max we could still wheel and deal with what space we have under the cap, and then come back after we've acquired our third superstar and give him the max. Keeping Parsons' Bird rights allows us also to pay more money to him and give one more year on any contract he could theoretically sign. The problem is that these advantages usually don't come into play until you're talking max dollars.

So again, everything I've said above has some inaccuracy to it because I'm not an expert, but essentially yes there is a HUGE incentive to wait until 2015 to re-sign Parsons. The risk is that he could sign with any other team for any amount (see Kirilenko signing with Brooklyn at a discount relative to Minnesota's offer), and we would be able to do nothing about it. The second downside to re-signing him in 2015 is that, yes, we may be talking about going over the luxury tax and paying Parsons near-max money if we want to retain him.

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